This Isn’t About The Climate

This post isn’t about our climate.  But, then, my involvement in this discussion never was about our climate.  Personally, I don’t care if we’re a degree, or two, or three warmer.  I’ve always thought, and still do, that mankind would benefit more from a warmer world.  And, this post isn’t really about calling anyone names.  This post is really an appeal to the public and more specifically to people convinced CAGW is a correct hypothesis.

I’ve posted a couple of pictures and then a series of graphs, and a couple of quotes I thought pertinent.   My thoughts at the bottom……..

imageimage

“What traitors books can be! You think they’re backing you up, and they turn on you. Others can use them, too, and there you are, lost in the middle of the moor, in a great welter of nouns and verbs and adjectives.”  – Ray Bradbury, Fahrenheit 451, Part 2

imageimage

“Its real beauty is that it destroys responsibility and consequences.”
– Ray Bradbury, Fahrenheit 451, Part 3

!cid_image005_png@01CD17FE!cid_image006_png@01CD17FE

http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2012/04/03/adjustmentgatesouth-america/#more-1058

http://www.real-science.com/roy-spencer-all-us-warming-since-1973-is-mann-made

“Those who tell the stories also hold the power.”—- Plato’s dictum

imageimage

http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2012/03/24/adjustmentgateaustralia/

image

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/08/the-smoking-gun-at-darwin-zero/

“Falsus in unum, falsus in omis”

image

image

Last 3 graphs and sources can be found here.

image

“He who controls the present, controls the past. He who controls the past, controls the future.”—- George Orwell Nineteen Eighty-four.

There are, of course, many more examples of revisions.  But, I’d like to ask a question.  What are the odds of this uniformly occurring?  Now, I showed some examples of adjustments occurring in the “micro”, and this isn’t really the issue.  What I’m referring to is the changes occurring in the “macro”.  I accept that there have been some errors in recording our climate data.  And, we should deal with these errors in one way or another.  But, honestly, what are the odds of every time a significant adjustment is to be made, our climate community always show it better(milder climate, cooler) in the past and worse(hotter, higher sea level) towards the present?  Why is it when we have obvious, and well agreed upon biases in our graphs which show more extreme weather towards the present we don’t attempt to deal with the discrepancies?…..Tornadoes and hurricanes, for example.  We know they are biased to show less in the past and more towards the present simply because of observation techniques and technologies.  But, we don’t attempt to adjust those.  But in temperature observations, there are some dubious claims and dubious, unjustified adjustments.  And they always work in one direction…. well two really, down in the past and up towards the present.

Last year, about August, I set out to try and find out our sea-level through our tidal gauges.  I found that gauges which were showing a flattening or decreasing sea level were discontinued.  The discontinuity and poor coverage made me stop.  It wasn’t going to be possible to determine (with any certitude) the sea-level anomaly.  Sure, I could have cherry-picked the data to show whatever I wanted, but, I deemed that …….. immoral.  Imagine my surprise to find 6 months later, some of the tidal stations which had been discontinued for over 2 years suddenly had data……. all showing increases in sea level from the time they started recording again!!   Which, in spite of the latest adjustments, is still incongruent with the satellites!  What are the odds?  GISS has an algorithm they apply, and the algorithm has been shown and people like Steve Mosher approve of it.  But, again, if it is a proper algorithm, what are the odds that it would consistently lower past temps and raise present temps?  HadCrut is on it’s 4th version.  Again, we see the same dynamic!  What are the odds?  And now Envisat has found an error and a couple of adjustments and suddenly it conforms to Jason I….. sort of.  (I’ll make another post on that specific instance in the near future.)  But, we see the exact same dynamic!  What are the odds?  Are we to believe they just now found an error after 10 years?…… knowing that they were not in step with Jason I the entire time?  On that particular instance, they seem to be asking us to believe they are incompetent rather than intentionally altering the sea level record.

I do want to make something very clear.  I am not calling all of these people involved liars or that they are all intentionally deceiving people.

image

We hear what we expect to hear and see what we expect to see.  I think many of our scientists are seeing things and then pursuing an answer to fit what they saw into their view of what they believe is suppose to be happening.  Nothing is more evidenced of this than the alternating cold winters causing more and less snow and cold in one place causing warm in another.  For those who still don’t know, this winter(Dec, Jan, Feb) was an unusually cold winter, except in a small part of the globe.

I am sure some of the adjustments we see are legitimate and proper.  I am equally sure others are not.  One or two instances…. sure, that’s believable.  But, in the aggregate, it simply isn’t credible.  And, this is the crux of the problem.  I know there is, and I participate in, a sort of team sport when discussing climate.  When something occurs which seems to validate the skeptical position, skeptics say “Hooray for our team!  We told you so!”  And, the people alarmed about CO2 and whatnot engage in the same.  It is human nature, I’m afraid.  But, what we’re seeing here, is something more sinister than any carbon tax or coal mining could ever become.  And, this is something I hope people of all persuasions and advocacy can see and understand.  What both skeptics and alarmists must realize by now, is that we don’t carry the political power we imagine we do.  Sure, us conservative skeptics forced Romney and Gingrich to reverse their previous statements.  But, don’t believe for a second as soon as it becomes politically expedient both would turn their positions on a dime.  As to the alarmists, I know Barrack has been a disappointment.  Oh, sure, he’s playing up to you now, but he doesn’t give a rats ass about CO2, warming or sea levels.  And this is what I’m on about.  We can not engage in history revisionism!  A fluid and dynamic history is the destruction of a free society.  For the alarmists of the socialist persuasion, understand that the body politic only understands power and control.  How it occurs is of little concern for them.  To approve, affirm, or even silently allow this madness is to supply the tools for our own enslavement!  We’re fitting our own chains!

Stories of history and battle and war is one thing.  It requires perspective and context.  Any person of even average intelligence knows there are two sides to a story.  But there is no perspective or context to going from 49 to 47.  It, either, was 49 or it wasn’t.  1934 was either warmer than 1998 or it wasn’t.  When objective observations are subjective, we’ve lost every thing. No one can know or calculate anything because the start point is always subject to change!  A while back, I calculated the warming expected on a doubling of CO2 (from 280ppm) based on the observed temperature change and the already experienced CO2 increases.  It isn’t valid now because of the changes made to the temp record.  Nor, is anyone else’s calculations based on observation!  There is no science without observation.  There is no observation if the observed is subject to change.  There is nothing but the present, and a future as dark as the worst of us can imagine.

This isn’t about climate, this is about humanity.

This entry was posted in Climate, News and politics. Bookmark the permalink.

122 Responses to This Isn’t About The Climate

  1. Ted G says:

    Hey, thats my mum and dad in the last picture and yes I love a cold beer.
    PS a great posting.

    • suyts says:

      Thanks… I thought it a good mood breaker for the post. I didn’t want people suicidal after reading it……

      But, it is a grave concern for me. I think, in the end, regardless how the climate discussion ends, this will be the worse of it. They’ve been allowed to do this without any real inquiry, and because they can, anyone can. And this is the harm.

  2. HankH says:

    What I find striking about all these adjustments is the amount of upward adjustment becomes greater as the clock ticks forward, suggesting that as time advances and technology improves, our ability to take accurate measurements gets worse. Why does that notion seem counterintuitive to me?

    • suyts says:

      Indeed….. it would appear we’re getting dumber. Apparently, they don’t make mercury like they used to.

      What I find interesting is that the adjustments conform to the preconcieved notions. What are the odds that for it’s entire lifetime in space Envisat was out of sync with Jason, but, when they find an error and make a correction or two, then suddenly the sea-level slopes are within 10ths of a mm to Jason? And HadCrut? An independent reevaluation suddenly more closely aligns with GISS after 15 years of drifting apart? It couldn’t possibly be that GISS and/or Jason got it wrong. Hadley, with the most senior temp record known to man, doesn’t know how to properly keep temp records…..tsk.

      • HankH says:

        That’s the biggest challenge I have with what they’re doing… taking newer technology and throwing bias at it to get it to agree with older technology. In any other field, it would be the other way around. Then to make matters worse, they’re using circular calibration references. That’s why when they adjust one, it causes divergence with the rest, which then need to be adjusted. Unlike time standards, there’s no temperature or SLA standard – it’s whatever they decide it should be. It boggles the mind.

      • HankH says:

        Almost all of the global warming of the past 30 years can be attributed to adjustments.

        • suyts says:

          Yes, and people simply buy into it because it fits their ideology. What they don’t understand is how this technique can and will be used against their interests. The gate is open and it’s going to take all of us to close it.

        • David Appell says:

          If your claim is correct, why is sea level rising? Why is sea ice melting (and glaciers showing a global negative mass balance?) Why are plants blooming earlier, and expanding poleward and up in altitude?

          These morphological changes are independent of any adjustments.

          Are you claiming that even UAH satellite data by Spencer, Christy, et al are being adjusted upwards?

        • suyts says:

          David, the total mass balance studies seem to have some difficulties. But, glacial remnants of a past ice age should be melting anyway.

        • David Appell says:

          the total mass balance studies seem to have some difficulties.

          What “difficulties?”

          But, glacial remnants of a past ice age should be melting anyway.

          GIA isn’t about ice per se, it’s about land still rebounding from the weight of the ice that was there during the last ice age.

        • HankH says:

          David, GIA isn’t about land rebounding from the weight of the ice. Mantle material continues to be transported from under the oceans into previously glaciated regions on land via plate tectonics. The effect is it pushes the land up while ocean basins fall relative to the center of the earth. Additionally, GIA isn’t measured. Like everything else in climate science it’s modeled. Results vary from model to model with no better than 50% uncertainty.

          Regarding adjustments, Dr. Spencer would agree with my assessment. Here’s what Dr. Spencer has to say:

          http://www.drroyspencer.com/2012/04/ushcn-surface-temperatures-1973-2012-dramatic-warming-adjustments-noisy-trends/

          Glaciers have been experiencing a net mass loss since the onset of the interglacial just like the massive ice sheets covering the NH during the glacial which have now retreated to the extent that all we have left is the Arctic ice cap and a few remnant glaciers. It occurred naturally. Because it continues to occur are we to tax people and industry to death to mitigate something that’s been happening for > 10,000 years before we made the discovery? To the human psyche, change always seems bad. To the over obsessed environmentalist, it’s worse than we thought.

        • suyts says:

          The difficulties are in how they’re measuring….. remember the study about the Himalayans not really shrinking? https://suyts.wordpress.com/2012/02/08/yes-yes-they-really-are-that-dumb/ Physical measurements weren’t accurate because they were hard. Sat measurements showed -4gt ….+/- 20gt. In other words, they don’t know jack. You may enjoy the post…… I thought it had some good satire in it.

        • HankH says:

          I read your post back when you published it and enjoyed it. Unfortunately I was on business travel and didn’t find the time to comment. The sat estimate of 4 ± 20 really got a laugh out of me. When the error distribution is five times the measurement, you have to admit you’d get just as accurate measurements reading tea leaves.

        • suyts says:

          lol, Thanks Hank…. I was actually directing that at David….. missed putting it in the right spot. But, I’m glad you enjoyed!

  3. My observations of Phenology come entirely from nature. Whilst you say you do not care whether the world ends up several degrees warmer for example, the natural world does. Of course, you cannot question the analysis from natural indicators; but every human being views the latest climate statistics from very different viewpoints.

    Fascinating stuff.

    Best Wishes

    Tony Powell

    http://naturestimeline.wordpress.com/

  4. peterhdn says:

    ‘suyts’ is it possible you are wrong? Might the problem be your ideology? if not why not? Might you not be the one with pre conceived notions? You do, I think, seem very sure you are right?

    • suyts says:

      Of course I could be wrong. And, it could be my notions cloud what I’m seeing. Tell me, in those graphs I posted, what do you see? This is why I asked, “what are the odds?”

      If the corrections were proper corrections, wouldn’t we see an equal or near equal distribution of the direction of corrections? Why is the past always cooler than recorded or warmer nearer the present? And most often both? And overwhelmingly so! And now, we’re seeing the same phenom in sea levels? How is this possible?

    • Paul Matthews says:

      Huh? Climate scientists are adjusting the data to make warming look greater than it really is, because of suyts’s ideology?

      One nice bit of revisionism is a book called “Atmosphere, Weather and climate” by Barry and Chorley. On p 322 of the 2nd edition published in the 1970s it talks about the early 20th C warming and then says
      “Unfortunately, the latest evidence suggests that the warm period of the 1920s and 1930s has come to an end”
      In later editions, that was removed.

      • suyts says:

        Apparently these are illusions only skeptics see.

        I’m wondering, do they not instruct our children to read “1984” or “Fahrenheit 451” or any other of those great works? It seems to me, had they done so, things like this wouldn’t occur.

  5. David says:

    Dear Sutys

    Thank you for this post, and I like your Blog. If you have the time and inclination, I think there are several more adjustments you have not shown which would be lovely to have in one post. I did not see the Iceland adjustments, or the Univ of Colorado SL adjustments, where, in a similar manner they were late in updating their graphs just as SL was going flat, and the new “isostatic” adjsutments worked to show a rise. There are more but I do not remember off hand. I am curious, should not the isostatic adjustments, which I do not agree with, have been applied to the entire data set. I do not understand how those adjustmentd produced a steeper trend.

    • suyts says:

      Indeed…. you are correct there are many more adjustments I could have shown. It’s my experience, that if you show too much at one time people’s eyes just glaze over and it loses the effect.

      But, I agree, there should be a repository of these “adjustments” so people can easily reference them.

      The GIA is basically stating that our bottom is continually sinking and our ground is continually rising. So, if the SL doesn’t change, it should have 0.3mm/yr increase. It’s a fallacious thought. I’m sort of glad they keep it around….. so we can laugh at them.

      And thanks for the attaboy! It’s always nice to hear people appreciate what I post.

  6. Lars P. says:

    It is a tragedy. With data adjustment to fit the theory one stops doing science and starts doing alchemy, astrology.
    Strange aberrations remain like Hansen’s paper where he explains why the US temperature behaved differently to the global one:

    or the La Nina explanation for 2010 drop in sea level with water shown by GRACE to be otherwise.
    A small adjustment and voila.
    Now not to increase the temperature the simplest way to make the adjustments is to cool the past. The same with sea level, if you look at the 2 charts suddenly is 2003 lower = 46.7 instead of 48.2. And it will get lower next year.
    You are right the tragedy is not the climate debate which is bad enough.

    • suyts says:

      I don’t think the alarmists understand how dangerous this practice is. Brilliant minds throughout the ages have warned us not to do this. But, now, it has become so accepted that no rational explanation is deemed necessary.

  7. miked1947 says:

    James:
    This post hit home for a lot of people.
    You did not cover the fact that what is considered surface temperature records is in reality Model Output as seen in this:
    Q. If SATs cannot be measured, how are SAT maps created ?
    A. This can only be done with the help of computer models, the same models that are used to create the daily weather forecasts. We may start out the model with the few observed data that are available and fill in the rest with guesses (also called extrapolations) and then let the model run long enough so that the initial guesses no longer matter, but not too long in order to avoid that the inaccuracies of the model become relevant. This may be done starting from conditions from many years, so that the average (called a ‘climatology’) hopefully represents a typical map for the particular month or day of the year.
    I keep this link handy to show what GISS actually thinks about their work quality:

    http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/abs_temp.html
    Great post!

  8. Latitude says:

    I’ve been trying my best to find something…anything….that would explain why they needed to adjust actual physical tide guage readings from the past……

    I drew a blank…………..from what I’ve not been able to find….they don’t even bother to ‘splain it

    • suyts says:

      I need to look into it again. I was so damned pissed off to find the new data, I didn’t look to see what they’d done to the old. It wasn’t that I saw them changing old data, I saw them adding data when they hadn’t adding any in over two years.

      I spent months trying to figure out how to come up with a MSL with the gauges, but had to stop because of discontinuity and coverage……. but the gauges which were discontinued, magically started up again. All the ones I looked at showed a marked increase in the sea levels ….. even though, and even with this recent correction of Envisat, the satellites were showing a decrease.

      I’m going to wait and see what happens when the Jason’s start up again.

    • David Appell says:

      What about glacial isostatic adjustment (post-glacial rebound)?

  9. miked1947 says:

    PURE F”N MAGIC!

  10. John from CA says:

    Great Post

    The lack of proper calibration from physical evidence is completely absurd. The exaggeration of the facts is repugnant. But, the intentional alteration of data is a criminal act.

  11. David says:

    “The GIA is basically stating that our bottom is continually sinking and our ground is continually rising. So, if the SL doesn’t change, it should have 0.3mm/yr increase. It’s a fallacious thought. I’m sort of glad they keep it around….. so we can laugh at them. ”

    Humm?, still how does this play out?
    Lets say there is a satelite measured 1 mm unadjusted rise per year.,, 1…2….3….4….5; so 5 mm in five years.
    So the adjustment is … 1.3 2.6 3.9 5.2 6.5 Have I got it so far?
    So the longer the data base, the greater the end adjustment?
    So if only part of the trend is given this adjustment, then it will falsely portyay an accelerattion of rise? As in 1…2…3….4….5….6.3…7.6….8.9
    How did they calculate the absolute land rise, as much land is sinking?
    How do they measure how much the ocean bottom is sinking when we have very few measurements of any absolute bottom changes?
    How did they calculate how much sedtiment is being deposited into the oceans, verses what is being subducted into the mantel?
    How do they calculate how much magna is being deposited in to the oceans from rifts zones and volcanoes? Sometimes it only hurts when I laugh.

  12. shortie of Greenbank says:

    I had originally pointed out the Eagle Farm ones on the 11th of March as well on WUWT on this story: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/03/11/another-giss-miss-warming-in-the-arctic-the-adjustments-are-key/

    What I found more interesting (and I commented) on was the ‘adjustments’ to nearby Amberley. Amberley is the nearby Australian Airforce base inland and west of Brisbane.

    Here is the link to the V2.0 :

    http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/gistemp_station.py?id=501945680000&data_set=1&num_neighbors=1

    and here is the link to the v3.1:

    http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/gistemp_station.py?id=501945680000&data_set=14&num_neighbors=1

    Note that data from v2.0 is 1941 – 2011 and data from v3.1 is from 1944 – 2012. This removes a temperature ‘spike’ from the start and then later they seem to ‘inject’ 15+ years of data into the mix as well. The step change does look similar to the one from Eagle Farm in the end as well.

    • suyts says:

      That’s fascinating….. notice that they still don’t invent all of the record and leave a gap…… I wonder how they decide what to invent and what not to invent?

      • shortie of Greenbank says:

        There might be a site not listed nearby where they used ‘massaged’ data to fill out the blanks yet it too is incomplete. The sites west of Brisbane seem to be fairly poorly updated even a site as important as an active national airforce base. The late 80s/early 90s do represent a time when civilian contractors were being used to fill in most of the ‘rudimentary’ roles within military forces in Australia which might explain why the data suddenly stops from about that time. Where the data is injected or invested from is anyone’s guess though.

  13. David says:

    “Yes, either they believe we are really that stupid or, they are really that stupid. On a related note, a post I’m going to have to write in the near future……”
    http://www.foxnews.com/us/2012/04/12/report-warns-us-educational-failures-pose-national-security-threat/?test=latestnews
    Yes, this is very sad. They are so busy teaching kids what to think, (progressive socialist ideaology) instead of how to think, that our education system is very pathetic. Last year I went to my son’s 10th grade open house. Four of the kids had an exhibit on global warming. I asked all four kids if they knew of ANY beneficial affects of increased CO2. Nope, NONE of them did. I calmly exclaimed to them that if the earth was still at 280 ppm CO2, we would likely already be engaged in WWlll. In answer to their facial expressions, a comic knitting of puzzled eyebrows, I explained that due to anthopogenic contributions of CO2, every crop on the planet now produced 10% to 15% more food on the same amount of land and water. I then explained the political realties of what would happen with such worldwide shortages if this CO2 had not been added.

    • David Appell says:

      “In a global analysis of crop yields from 1981 to 2002, there was a negative response of wheat, maize, and barley (Hordeum vulgare) yields to rising temperature, costing an estimated $5 billion per year (Lobell and Field, 2007).”
      — “How Do We Improve Crop Production in a Warming World?” Elizabeth A. Ainsworth and Donald R. Ort, Plant Physiology October 2010 vol. 154 no. 2 526-530
      http://www.plantphysiol.org/content/154/2/526.full

        • David Appell says:

          Do you think that might have occurred to the researchers long before they wrote their paper?

          So why might they have concluded warming has been, on average, detrimental to the crops they list? Did you read the paper, and their main reference on this particular subject (Lobell and Field 2007)?

        • suyts says:

          David, no, I haven’t as I’ve alluded to, I’m attempting to multi-task. I will read it, though, I was just adding what I deem as some relevant information to the discussion. And something which should be kept in mind when we read futuristic prognostications of doom.

        • David Appell says:

          David, no, I haven’t as I’ve alluded to, I’m attempting to multi-task.

          I just don’t understand how people can have an opinion on something without having looked into what experts say. That’s probably why my blog doesn’t get much traffic.

        • suyts says:

          David, did I say I had an opinion on it? No, in fact, I stated I gave you something else to mull over. Did you look at the information I provided?

          You site doesn’t have much traffic for two reasons, 1) you don’t do a very good job of interacting with the commentators, and 2) you don’t come off well on the screen. I’m sure you’re a great guy and all, and would be one of those we’d all like to go have a beer with….. but that’s not how it comes off on the blogs.

          Experts? Did they get some farmers to write a paper on future crop yields?

  14. sthelensoregon says:

    There is a lot of hand waving here, and resulting accusations, but no real analysis. Why don’t you take one particular station and investigate it deeply? Track revisions to its data and, if they don’t make sense to you, ask the people involved why the revisions occurred.

    If there has been no real warming over the last 30 years, why is sea level rising and ice melting?

    • suyts says:

      Lol, you’re not paying attention. Ice melting? Where? https://suyts.wordpress.com/2012/04/15/the-sad-demise-of-the-albedo/ The sea level is only rising after the adjustment made to Envisat.

      But, again, this isn’t about climate change, this is about people like you and your willingness to accept history revision…. in very short order, too. The examples I’ve posted, are simply collections of several other people’s observations. Many have had detailed analysis done. And, again, I accept there could be justifications for altering some of the data. But, you need to ask yourself, what are the odds they all be unidirectional?

      • David Appell says:

        So right away you’re devolving to personal insults. Typical.

      • suyts says:

        David, there wasn’t an insult in that comment…. what was insulting?

        • David Appell says:

          “…this is about people like you and your willingness to accept history revision….”

        • suyts says:

          Well David, I don’t see how that can be an insult if you’re openly accepting these data revisions……. If you don’t accept them at face value, then I apologize.

        • Me says:

          Willingness or Unwillingness? 😆

        • David Appell says:

          Anyone someone uses the phrase “people like you” it’s generally insulting. For future reference.

          Do I accept the revisions at face value? I certainly don’t accept a few graphs on a blog, especially Steve Goddard’s blog, over peer reviewed science from professional scientists. Before I made accusations about people manipulating data I’d damn sure do a hell of a lot of digging into the subject to make sure I understood exactly what was being revised, and why. And then I’d ask the scientists themselves for their point of view. And then I’d look to see what independent groups found.

          In this case, the four main sea-level groups agree (CU, CSIRO, AVISO, and NOAA). I know enough about science to know that doesn’t just happen, but that the people in those groups do a huge amount of work to get their science right, and do a lot of cross-checking with other data to make sure their results are robust.

          But I understand how some might find it tempting to just attribute any inconvenient result to a conspiracy.

        • suyts says:

          Ahh, the old conspiracy meme……. First of all, the only graph I took from Steve’s was the blink graph. And, that’s been well vetted. His graph is factual representation of the corrections applied. As far as the sea-level goes….. so they were so incompetent they let errant data be displayed for ten years. Now, they’ve corrected it, right before it went into safe mode. Okay…… But, this is the problem with the constant corrections. What they stated yesterday, we can be reasonably sure, will be wrong and require a correction. And we can say the same with what is being stated today. But, tomorrow…… tomorrow, we’re really, really suppose to have faith that what they say will be a true statement of fact or observation. If they weren’t correct in 1998, and they weren’t correct in 2004….. what on earth leads you to believe they’re anywhere near correct today or tomorrow?

          David, I don’t mean to be rude, but, if you knew half about science as you purport then you should be casting a very skeptical eye towards the corrections. But, maybe it’s just science you’re familiar with and missed one of it’s foundations, mathematics. I asked in the post, I’ll ask again. What are the odds that all the corrections are unidirectional? They’ve gone well beyond the improbable threshold. You say, I should ask about each individual instance……. maybe. I’m asking you to consider this in its totality. What are the odds?

          David, these observations I’m making don’t require a conspiracy. Like minded ideologues fitting data to their beliefs, either consciously or unconsciously, and coming up with unidirectional corrections isn’t surprising. It doesn’t require conspiracy.

        • sthelensoregon says:

          Science *always* undergoes revision. That’s its very nature, and precisely what differentiates it from dogma and precisely what has made it so valuable for four centuries now.

          In this case, data undegoes revision when new information comes to light. I certainly trust the people doing the analysis to know the intimate details of this than I do someone like Steve Goddard, who typically throws up some little graph and proceeds to call people cheats and thieves and frauds.

          But, tomorrow…… tomorrow, we’re really, really suppose to have faith that what they say will be a true statement of fact or observation.

          Here’s exactly where you’re wrong. Science is *always* getting modified as new information comes to light. Hence, we no longer believe phlogiston exists. We no longer believe Newtonian mechanics is a good description of reality in certain realms. And it’s very possible people in the future will find limitations to special relativity or general relativity and find new ideas that fit the data where those theories didn’t.

          But it takes time. People didn’t just wake up one day and start believing Einstein’s theory of gravity. There was a great amount of debate for at least a decade, and several experiments that gave conflicting results, and people who called him wrong (and worse). There was data that was difficult to interpret, data that was wrong on closer inspection, data that was interpreted by different people in different ways, and even pompous deniers who garnered a lot of attention with claims of scandal. But slowly but surely the world community came to an agreement on what seemed to be the “truth.” (I recommend “Einstein’s Jury” by Jeffrey Crelinsten if you want to read about some of this.)

          It’s no different here. If you’re a scientist trying to measure sea level, and your results start to disagree with other groups and with other indicators of warming, you start to look around to see if you have a mistake somewhere. Look at the example of the UAH group, who announced several spurious results in the ’90s that indicated there was little warming going on in the troposphere. People argued, debated, and the RSS and UAH groups did a huge amount of very detailed thinking about exactly what was going on, and eventually UAH found a couple of errors that aligned their results with RSS’s, and with other indications of warming from surface measurements, etc.

          All researchers go through this — hence GISS revised their results for the 1930s when McIntyre convincingly pointed out an error. Oceanographers once concerned about AMOC mostly decline changed their minds after new data came in. Some people are starting to question if the MWP wasn’t in fact global as new data comes in year by year. (That wouldn’t overthrow AGW, by the way.)

          People do the best they can, just like nearly all of us. The great glory of science is that it’s self-correcting, and fellow scientists are the harshest critics of all. That’s why the things that the physical sciences know are known much better than things known by religion, philosophy, art, the social sciences, and any other body of thought.

    • suyts says:

      sthelen….. in spite of David faux sensitivity, he knows his comments are welcome here, or he should know, as are yours. People may speak a bit coarse or blunt, but, you’ll find most of the vitriol is left for other sites.

    • suyts says:

      No doubt….. isn’t it fascinating that people will throw out the words conspiracy theory, when the very people they’re defend believe there’s some sore of conspiracy to make them look like abject idiots….. when in fact, they do it to themselves and people just point it out!

  15. suyts says:

    @ David April 16, 2012 at 4:20 pm (Edit)

    Sigh, and this is where you are exactly wrong. Science changes, but empirical data does not. Sea levels don’t agree? There were two satellites….. again, I ask you look at the totality. One at a time, there are very good rationalizations for such adjustments. I’ve been told that Jason agrees with the tidal gauges….. which I call bs on. I’ve got the entire PSMSL data set…. as of last summer, which, ironically has changed since then. Regardless, there’s no way to make that determination without statistical acrobatics that defy gravity. The discontinuities and coverage make a global MSL impossible to state with any certitude.

    But, moving to the temps……. how is it that we determined people in the past didn’t know how to read a thermometer? Or, did we decide the properties of mercury changed?

    When they alter the historical temp records, we’re are not seeing science change, we’re watching the observations change to fit the belief system. I’ve never once seen in any other field of science going back and altering empirical data because it didn’t fit with the theory. But, in climatology, they do, and they do often.

    • sthelensoregon says:

      “Empirical data” needs a lot of analysis in order to tease out a result like sea level change. It’s complicated and takes a lot of work and effort; AVISO has a sketch of corrections here:
      http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/en/news/ocean-indicators/mean-sea-level/processing-corrections/index.html

      You may have downloaded a dataset, but unless you do the kind of detailed analysis that real science requires, dismissing a result based on a few spreadsheets you made will convince no one except people who only see climate science like talk radio listeners discuss the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry.

      how is it that we determined people in the past didn’t know how to read a thermometer?

      Really? You are really asking this? Do you really think determining the average warming rate of the planet, or even a region, is as simple as reading a thermometer?

      The real world is complex. Thermometers break and the new one reads a little different than the old one. Some old guy was taking the temperature once a day at noon but the next guy decided to take it at 6 am and 6 pm. Some guy backed over the station post with his truck, and the next station had to be moved when a new building went in. The thermometer from 1928 to 1937 was made of cheap glass with metallic particles in it that got warm on hot days. Satellite sensors fail. Another get fried in a solar storm. Someone realized that expendable bathythermographs descended at a rate different than what was assumed, but maybe not from Russian or Turkish ships, and maybe there weren’t any measurements at all during the Wars.

      There are a million things that need to be considered, and when you think you have adjusted for them some new guy you just hired from Australia thinks of one more.

      Anyone can read a thermometer. But that’s only the very beginning of the process.

      • suyts says:

        David, you’re not seeing the forest through the trees. You said,

        Some old guy was taking the temperature once a day at noon but the next guy decided to take it at 6 am and 6 pm. Some guy backed over the station post with his truck, and the next station had to be moved when a new building went in. The thermometer from 1928 to 1937 was made of cheap glass with metallic particles in it that got warm on hot days

        I understand all of that. Now, look up at the singular stations. Tell me, when did we know this and why does it require constant correction? It is still the same argument. Did we just now find out the guy was taking the temps at noon? No, no we didn’t. We’ve known this as soon as it was recorded. And, we’ve corrected for it…… and continue to correct for it. But, more than that…. look at the NOAA graph provided. We’ve become less adept at recording temps as we got closer to the present.
        And, we’re still changing the temps. As far as the cheap glass lark…… reason that for a second. Heat is required for glass…. what? We forgot? What does heat do with metals and other liquids? …… They separate. The process of glass making requires the separation.

        • miked1947 says:

          Metallic particles get hot and hold heat any of the days but they also tend to hold the cold longer than pure glass which is thermally neutral, pure glass does not conduct temperature.
          James:
          Sometimes glass is impregnated with metal deliberately as in crystal.
          Using metal in cheap glass as an excuse for anything is just making $hit up.

        • suyts says:

          Right, but it’s intentional.

        • miked1947 says:

          Here you go:
          http://www.radiationproducts.com/leaded-glass.htm
          David needs some of this stuff to protect him from the waves that are affecting his thought processes.
          He probably lives to close to a 500KV transmission line and you are sending negative thought patterns toward him.
          I know about you Electric people and the things you do with those power lines. 😉

        • suyts says:

          Lmao! Don’t kid! Some people really believe that!

        • miked1947 says:

          That is why I mentioned it!!!!!

        • David Appell says:

          > Did we just now find out the guy was taking the temps at noon?

          I didn’t mean *literally*. My point was that correlating diverse methods over long time intervals and large station numbers is fraught with details that require very careful consideration. AVISO gave a high level sketch of them. I haven’t seen any indication at all that you’ve tried to dig into that and understand what they did and why — or even that you’ve done that for one particular station. Your complaints are all at the 30,000 foot level, because all you really want to do is dismiss the results without having to do the work required. You’ll notice that that’s precisely the opposite of what Steve McIntyre did to convince GISS of the error that revised USA48 temperatures in the mid-1930s — he poured over the data and methods and checked them every which way until he dug out exactly what was wrong, and that’s how people get convinced. That’s science. Nothing here comes close.

        • suyts says:

          No, what Steve Mac did was statistics. And, you’re missing my point entirely. Given the length of the thread, I can see where you may have forgotten. I asked that you look at these, not individually, but in the totality… sorry, just because it doesn’t fit with your world view doesn’t mean that’s not a legitimate perspective. You can call it math, you can call it science, or you can call it statistics. It doesn’t matter what you want to call it, its a near impossibility to have the corrections continually go unidirectional. You don’t think its science because you don’t wish to face the truth about the data.

          If this were to occur with my data on kWh usage for my customers, I’d be in prison. It’s as simple as that. I don’t need to look at each and every detail. The law of large numbers is specific for this purpose. Again, if it was shown that each of my corrections to the instruments and data resulted always in higher usage for the electric customers, I’d be done.

          David, I don’t know how you can rationalize this away. They’re fitting the data to their beliefs. David, the picture has to be of the same thing from 30,000 feet to under the microscope.

  16. suyts says:

    And, David, I’m not sure you know this or not, but this isn’t Steve Goddard’s blog….. why do you keep referencing him? If you want to take pot shots at Steve, go to his blog.

    While it is true, we likely share many perspectives, his doesn’t form mine, nor does mine form his. Honestly, we rarely speak, except, at the from big oil bloggers conventions where they pass out all of the money.

  17. miked1947 says:

    David:
    It is people like you that show symptoms of Cranialanalinsertitis that should have a Crainialanalectomy that do not understand that AGW is a fantasy and all the evidence they have “Manufactured” are fairy tales for the gullible.

    • sthelensoregon says:

      Yes, using one’s cranium is a terrible thing, isn’t it? It’s much better to make broad, simplistic arguments about conspiracies and manufactured fairy tales.

  18. miked1947 says:

    AGW is and always has been a fairy tale. There is not real scientific proof it exists, just like Pixies, Easter Bunnies and Santa Clause.
    You do not use your head for much more that a place to hang your hat. That is what I have been telling you since the first time we communicated on a web site, I can not even remember when that was, I tend to forget the names of the puppets I have talked to over the years. People like you do not impress me.

    • sthelensoregon says:

      Yes, there is proof. Besides the fact that no known natural factor can account for the large warming taking place, measurements show an enhanced greenhouse effect both at the top of the atmosphere and at the ground:

      “Increases in greenhouse forcing inferred from the outgoing longwave radiation spectra of the Earth in 1970 and 1997,” J.E. Harries et al, Nature 410, 355-357 (15 March 2001).
      http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v410/n6826/abs/410355a0.html

      “Radiative forcing – measured at Earth’s surface – corroborate the increasing greenhouse effect,” R. Phillipona et al, Geo Res Letters, v31 L03202 (2004)
      http://www.agu.org/journals/ABS/2004/2003GL018765.shtml

      There are more such studies, too. Scientists and every scientific society in the world don’t get this sure about something unless then is a long string of evidence and knowledge pointing towards the finding that manmade CO2 emissions are causing warming, and will cause a lot more. They are by no means the only factor influencing today’s climate, but they are a big one.

      • suyts says:

        Large warming? Relative to what? Dave, I’ve done a few posts on the radiative properties of CO2. While I don’t remember if I referenced those, I assume many are familiar. And, yes, there are more studies, but they lead to questions unasked and unanswered.

        Tell me, does atmospheric pressure increase as we put more stuff in the atmosphere?

        The reason why I ask is because it’s been theorized that increase pressure increases the absorbing spectral bands of CO2. …… this is the rationale for Venus. But, I’ve not observed any increase of atmospheric pressure on earth. If our pressure doesn’t increase, then we’ve nearly saturated the effect CO2 can do. ….. and calls into question the Venus theory.

        • miked1947 says:

          If the pressure increases at equal proportions to the pressure at the reference we will not know if the pressure is increasing as we can only measure a difference from the reference point.

        • suyts says:

          Lol, easy Mike, you’re getting way ahead of the game here!!!

        • miked1947 says:

          😉

        • David Appell says:

          Yes, the atmospheric pressure at the surface increases as we add gases to the atmosphere. But it’s too small to notice.

          The atmosphere weighs about 5 million gigatons, of which about 3,000 Gt is CO2. Before the Industrial Revolution there was about 2,100 Gt CO2 in the atmosphere.

          But, the CO2 we’ve added (~900 Gt) would only increase the surface pressure by about (to first order) 2 parts in 10,000, or 0.2 mb, or 0.006 inches of mercury. I doubt anyone would notice that amidst the normal fluctuations.

          If you want you can get more sophisticated and consider the partial pressures and molecular masses of CO2 and air, etc. It won’t change the result much. Consider it an exercise for the reader.

        • David Appell says:

          If our pressure doesn’t increase, then we’ve nearly saturated the effect CO2 can do. ….. and calls into question the Venus theory.

          If you’re unaware of the vast amount of work that has gone into understanding how radiation interacts with atmospheric GHGs, then really, your questions about Venus are meaningless. But then, you see this a lot on these kind of blogs.

          Climate scientists have done an enormous amount of work on this subject, beginning in the 1930s with Elsasser, Callendar, Plaas, and many others, then to building the HITRAN database, up to today’s atmospheric models. It’s true that IR absorption is complicated by temperature and pressure and feedbacks, but temperature always increases with increasing CO2. (For example, the PETM, where about 4000 Gt of carbon went into the atmosphere.) For higher values of CO2 it differs from the simple logarithmic dependence we hear about, and there’s no closed form expression for the functional dependence of radiative forcing on CO2 level, though you can find tables of coefficient for polynomial fits for different values of humidity, etc.

          There’s a good book that gives the history of this — “The Warming Papers” by Archer and Pierrehumbert. But you can get the gist by reading Chapters 3 and 4 of Pierrehumbert’s textbook. I doubt then that you’ll have occasion to call the theory of Venus into account.

        • suyts says:

          David, that’s a fascinating posit you’ve made about the increasing pressure but no one notices. Here, we have scientists who believe we can measure sea level to hundredths of a mm, but we’re not going try and track our pressure. See what I mean about questions unasked and unanswered? While we have people bloviating about our wonderful supposed scientists, they don’t even have the wherewithal to cross check their biased affirmations.

          “If you’re unaware of the vast amount of work that has gone into understanding how radiation interacts with atmospheric GHGs, then really, your questions about Venus are meaningless. But then, you see this a lot on these kind of blogs.”……. sigh, David, remember what I said as to why you don’t have traffic on your blog?

          David, I’ve been at this CAGW game for a very long time. Yes, I’m aware of the vast amount of work. And, I’m aware of your unwarranted condescension and illogical assumptions about me. We see this a lot from alarmists. Which, makes attempts to exchange thoughts and ideas with them rather meaningless. They simply can’t think beyond what they are told. I’ve written a bit about our abandonment of teaching critical thinking and problem solving skills. There’s a paper out called A CRISIS OF COMPETENCE…… perhaps you’d want to give it a read. http://www.nas.org/images/documents/A_Crisis_of_Competence.pdf

          I’ll try to run down the book, thanks. Your bringing up the PETM is funny. When skeptics bring up historical events, we’re told things are different and the mechanism of the distant past don’t apply to the conditions today, yet, here we are talking about the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum. I term this ‘consistently inconsistent’. Not that it matters much, because if the data presented from findings back then calls questions to the theory, we’ll just change the data. …… just like the temps, just like the sea level, just like the tree rings……. on and on ad nauseum.

          Does it bother you that Hansen’s magnum opus was based upon errant temps? Or anyone else’ science work based on pre-revisioned temps.

        • David Appell says:

          Who told who that events of the past don’t matter? Specifically?

        • suyts says:

          Oh for heaven’s sake David. Don’t play stupid with me. It just pisses me off. Or you’ve never been involved in a discussion of comparing past temps and CO2 levels to today?

          Did I say anyone said past events didn’t matter? “mechanism[s] of the distant past don’t apply” But, toward that end try IPCC WG I 2001 Or here….. http://www.theclimatechangeclearinghouse.org/ClimateChangeScience/GeologicTime/default.aspx

          OR try Google.

          David, instead of picking at the minutia of my several comments, why don’t you concentrate on the contents and meaning?

        • David Appell says:

          Where in either the IPCC 4AR WG1 or your link does it say mechanisms of the distant past don’t apply today? Specifically?

        • suyts says:

          David, I’m not playing this game with you. If you want to play obtuse, go right ahead. If you want me to play fetch for you, you’re going to have to find a different blog.

        • David Appell says:

          I’m not being obtuse. You made a huge claim that I highly doubt is true. Now you can’t back it up. That seems to be the order of things here — all talk, no action.

      • miked1947 says:

        David:
        The tooth fairy is as real as the proof you provided.
        They were sure about the Piltdown Man also. Geocentric, anyone! Ulcers are caused by WHAT!
        What really causes Cancer. Simple question that should be simple to answer.
        No friggen clue, but they can find thousands of things to blame. The answer to that question is really very simple. However if the answer was admitted it would reduce funding for research into a cure for Cancer to nothing.

      • suyts says:

        David, does it bother you that I nailed the sea level satellite “adjustments” weeks before they actually did adjust them?

        There are adjustments, and then there are adjustments

        More Inanity From Our Satellites

  19. miked1947 says:

    David:
    What a load of Crap!
    You claim: Temperatures ALWAYS go UP when CO2 Goes UP. In the 4.67256298 Billion years this planet has been in existence there may have been a time or two this coincidentally happened. Primary evidence is that warming allows the existence of more atmospheric CO2 which allows more biological growth which creates more biota to decompose which then increases the atmospheric CO2.
    The PETM hogwash is fabrication to come up with some imaginary situation that some morons might believe.
    Bringing up RayPierre’s name on a web site where I am is even worse than bringing up the name David Appell. At least you do not claim to be a real scientist and write textbooks that set back science to pre Galileio times like he does.

  20. Pingback: The Quickening: Jason II Getting In The Act | suyts space

  21. suyts says:

    @ David.

    Horse crap…. asked and answered 3 times. If you can’t follow links or utilize Google properly that’s not my problem.

    I’ve played this game with warmista so often it gets tiresome. I have backed it up, your refusal to look at what I’m stating is your shortcoming, not mine. But, I’ll quickly dispense your asinine game that you’re playing. I made a huge claim…. whatever….It goes like this…..

    Skeptic says, “the climate has dramatically changed in the past. There’s no reason to believe we’re not undergoing some more of the natural changes like we’ve seen in the past.”

    Idiot alarmist says, “The conditions and the mechanisms of the past climate change are different.”

    That’s what the chapters 2.4 and 2.5 were entirely dedicated to stating. Now, I think you owe me an apology for wasting my time. And you should also state that you’re woefully ignorant of the subject at hand and you should spend more time paying attention and less time typing.

    Huge claim… David, stick to the subject, quit hand waving. You’re not impressing anyone.

  22. FundMe says:

    FundMe
    Hi just a comment WTR the recent paper (cant recall the authors just now) stating that the recent falls in sea level were caused by all the water being sequestered on land due to the heavy rains etc., associated with La Nina and measured by GRACE. I remember seeing maps of Australia etc showing where the water was situated.
    Now either that paper was wrong or Envisat adjustments are wrong. Am I missing something.
    I am beginning to think that they are all wrong and how can we believe them anyway as next year they will all be changed again. I wonder how many papers out there have been completely falsified by these multi-various upward adjustments..
    BTW I enjoyed the post thanks.

    • suyts says:

      Fund, thanks for popping by! And, yes, you’re correct. Who can run analysis on anything if the data is going to be constantly changed?

      Yes, the sequestered water that wasn’t. Maybe they’ll put it back next year.

    • Latitude says:

      Has anyone actually sat down and run their numbers?
      How much land, how much water on land…….and how much sea level dropped?

      I have a feeling, if they did, all the dry land would be standing in about 1 inch of water

  23. FundMe says:

    Having said in my previous comment that one cannot trust the data as presented due to the continual adjustments, it leads me to believe any analysis I might carry out could be and is probably false at least at some future time. This is be very discouraging (your tide gauges) and will put a lot of people off even trying to do any analysis in the first place. If I were a conspiracy theorist I might believe that it is the data keepers intention to put people off by keeping adjusting it but hey I am not and I dont think they are clever enough..

  24. Pingback: Torturing The Aussie Alarmists With Suyts Space | suyts space

  25. Pingback: An Important Article In Principia Scientific International | suyts space

  26. Pingback: Oh Nooos!!!! El Nino cometh!! | suyts space

  27. Pingback: Was It Really All A Hoax? | suyts space

  28. Pingback: Sea Level Update!!! No Updates!! Broken Satellite Remains Broken! | suyts space

  29. Pingback: Which Is More Dishonest? Climate Scientists Or Government Economists? What’s Magic About 2.5%?? | suyts space

Leave a comment