We seem to have some new commentators here, so I’ll throw something out for discussion which may be illuminating.
By now, almost everyone is aware, or should be aware if climate is a subject they follow, that we’ve had a couple of very disturbing revelations recently about our temp data. Some may be shocked. For those of us who have been at this for a while knew about it for some time.
We’ll get to the most common part first. Anthony has a post up …..
Authors Steirou and Koutsoyiannis, after taking homogenization errors into account find global warming over the past century was only about one-half [0.42°C] of that claimed by the IPCC [0.7-0.8°C].
NOTE!!!! The GHCN is where most temp data comes from.
Now, like I stated, for us veterans of the climate wars, this isn’t new. It is exciting that it got published, but my experience is that this won’t change any beliefs.
One of the most prolific blog writers I have ever seen, Steven Goddard, has been at this for some time with the USHCN. Steve probably writes more posts in a day than any other blogger I’ve seen. The thing about Steve is that sometimes he writes to a specific audience. He assumes all people engaged in the discussion have the same level of knowledge. In other words, he writes to veteran climate skeptics. This isn’t a criticism, it’s just an observation. He provides a wealth of knowledge and has been very influential in presenting skeptic points of view. Continuing with the altered temp data, he presents USHCN data altering…….
He notes that the raw data shows a noticeable decline in the temps, but the adjustments and alterations show that the U.S. is warming …. significantly.
Now, I’ve written about this in the past, This Isn’t About The Climate , if you haven’t read it yet, I’d recommend it.
But, here’s my point. I have no doubt in my mind there have been some unscrupulous people with their thumbs on the scales. But, I also know that many are honest. Their only sin was faith. The faith was misplaced. And, who’s to blame them? When a colleague affirms something to them, then they believe it. No one has time to run down every bit of supposed science to see if it is all true or not. No one can.
Many may recall when I endeavored to look at all of the tidal gauges and tried to determine the sea level, the historic rate of rise and the present rate of rise. It should have been simple. But, things never are as simple as you conceive them. After a few months of processing the tidal data, I came to a spot where I would have to rely on my judgment to move forward. The tidal data, like the temp data isn’t pure. The distribution isn’t consistent. The continuity of the data isn’t there. For instance, you can have a record for one place which had consistent measurements of a tidal gauge for 20-30 years. But, then there will be a gap, maybe even for several years, and then new readings again. Almost always, there will be a step change in the measurements one way or the other. What do you do? In my case, I threw out the old measurement. Or in some cases I kept the one with the longest continuous measurements. But, I couldn’t do this through the years without having to make a subjective choice.
I had intended to submit my findings to a journal. And, I still may after all is said and done. But, I know what my findings will say. There is absolutely no way to discern global sea level, the rate of rise in the past or the present using PSMSL data. Any assertion one way or the other is simply subjective opinion. I’ve seen it go both ways and they are both wrong. Yes, there are statistical manipulations one can make and do, but, that’s all they are.
The thermometer temperature data is exactly the same. We have people pretending to know what the global temps were in the 1800s. We know the coverage and continuity doesn’t allow for this. The 1940s are problematic as well. The thermometer record is and always has been bollocks. We do have satellite records, but they have their own problems. But, most importantly, we have no idea how they relate to the past.
I don’t blame the people in the past for making assumptions as they did. Today, there is no excuse.