Is There Any Evidence A Lockdown Slows The Spread Of The Wuhan Virus?

So, I thought I’d fire up the old blog just for a moment.  As we all know the hot topic for the last couple of months has been the Covid19 ….. whatever you wish to call it.  Lately, in the US, the big discussion is to whether or not, or when do we re-open our various states.  Now, I know I’m not the first to say this, but, there doesn’t seem to be any evidence there’s any particular benefit from locking down a state.  Before some pinhead responds with a “flattening the curve” idiocy, I’ll state that I’m open to the possibility but, I just haven’t seen any evidence it did.  It certainly didn’t save any lives.  Now, I hope this renders;  I’ve put together a little spread sheet which examines the death rate (per million people) of each state in the US (D.C. also included).  I’ve sorted it from the highest to the lowest death rate, and also included the total deaths of each state, along with it’s current “lockdown” status and with an additional bonus the political affiliation of the governor of each of the states.

state Gov pol affil Lockdown deaths deaths/mil
New York D Lockdown 28328 1456
New Jersey D Lockdown 10366 1167
Connecticut D Lockdown 3408 956
Massachusetts R Lockdown 5797 841
D.C. D Lockdown 392 555
Louisiana D Lockdown 2563 551
Michigan D Prtl Opn 4891 490
Rhode Island D Prtl Opn 506 478
Pennsylvania D Prtl Opn 4590 359
Maryland D Lockdown 2023 335
Illinois D Lockdown 4177 330
Delaware D Prtl Opn 297 305
Indiana R Mstly Opn 1765 262
Colorado D Mstly Opn 1215 211
Mississippi R Mstly Opn 528 177
Georgia R Mstly Opn 1642 155
Ohio R Prtl Opn 1628 139
Washington D Lockdown 1016 133
Minnesota D Prtl Opn 731 130
New Mexico D Prtl Opn 265 126
N.H. R Prtl Opn 172 126
Virginia D Lockdown 1014 119
Nevada D Lockdown 350 114
Iowa R Prtl Opn 355 113
Alabama R Mstly Opn 488 100
Missouri R Mstly Opn 604 98
Arizona R Mstly Opn 686 94
Florida R Prtl Opn 1997 93
Vermont R Prtl Opn 54 87
California D Prtl Opn 3289 83
Wisconsin D Prtl Opn 453 78
Kentucky D Prtl Opn 334 75
S.C. R Prtl Opn 385 75
Oklahoma R Mstly Opn 288 73
Kansas D Prtl Opn 196 67
N.C. D Prtl Opn 691 66
Nebraska R Nvr Lckdn 123 64
North Dakota R Mstly Opn 44 58
Maine D Prtl Opn 71 53
South Dakota R Nvr Lckdn 44 50
Texas R Mstly Opn 1360 47
Tennessee R Prtl Opn 298 44
Idaho R Prtl Opn 73 41
West Virginia R Mstly Opn 67 37
Oregon D Lockdown 137 32
Arkansas R Mstly Opn 98 32
Utah R Nvr Lckdn 80 25
Montana D Mstly Opn 16 15
Alaska R Prtl Opn 10 14
Wyoming R Prtl Opn 8 14
Hawaii D Prtl Opn 17 12

sources are here, here, and here.

Now, there’s so much to say about this little chart.  First and foremost, as always, correlation does not equal causation.  Also, when comparing state to state we must all remember each state in the union is unique.  They are unique in their population and distribution of said population and unique in their geography.

So, what factors dramatically increase your odds of dying from the Covid19?  Clearly, living in the NE of our great Union.  Also, having a governor who is a part of the Democrat party, and lastly, living under a wannabe totalitarian, power hungry nutjob for a governor, which, alas, is pretty much redundant with having a Democrat for a governor.  But, then, people deserve the government they have, so there’s that.

Here’s a fun fact.  The average state run by a Democratic governor has a death rate with the Covid at about 319 per million people, while the average state run by a Republican is about 114/1,000,000.  In other words, you are 3 times as likely to die by the Covid if you have a Dim for a governor vs a Repub.  This would have been much more interesting if there were an actual viable Libertarian party which could compete in various states, but, alas, it doesn’t exist.

Special note:  I’ve no idea if I’m going to post again any time soon.  But, if there are any of my former regulars which receive this update, I’d love to hear from you guys!

Also, if things don’t render well, my apologies.  I’m way out of practice and this is a new blog editor for me.


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16 Responses to Is There Any Evidence A Lockdown Slows The Spread Of The Wuhan Virus?

  1. philjourdan says:

    Forget Covid! Where have you been? I will read this in the morning and respond to the content, but damn we have missed you! So much has happened and I missed being able to discuss.

    I hope this means you are well.

    • suyts says:

      Phil, I am, indeed very well. And, at the moment not too busy. I’ve missed you guys as well. And, wow, yes a lot has happened. But, if there ever were a time to raise a voice to current events, I believe now is the time.

      Phil, how have you been?

      • philjourdan says:

        I have been well. A bout with Cancer, a couple of job hops, and making too much money now (my wife has been so blessed as well) to qualify for most of the stimulus. Just very lucky in moving to the right job at the right time.

        And both of us are in jobs that do better in rough times. She is in Bankruptcy, and I am in Market Intelligence (a good to have in good times, and a critical one to have in bad times). Still in IT.

        Been laughing a lot at how Trump is making monkeys out of the media and the democrats. A year before Mueller came out with his findiings, I told a democrat (a friendly one) exactly what the report would contain. He hated the crow.

        I am not happy about the con job the Chinese/WHO pulled on the world. It is going to take 1-2 years to get back to where we were, and while my wife and I are doing good, many of my siblings are not. The shutdown was unnecessary and wrong. Sweden showed us that. At least they upheld their meager rights. We caved like a cheap tent.

        This state is blue now. Has been for 12 years. But we just had some elections and the democrats went down to defeat. in local elections. The socialist over played their hand. A little on this (ours was one of the worst), but mostly on Guns and abortions. The governor broke his word on the latter. We lost 3 seats to the democrats in 18. I think 2 or maybe even 3 are going to switch back. Every one of those slime balls voted for impeachment. Good thing ROmney was just elected. He has 4 years to go. But I regret my vote for him.

        Good to see you back. I know this takes a lot of time. That is why I never did it.

  2. gator69 says:

    Alarmist models are the bane of our pussified society. Our ancestors would have brushed their teeth with corona virus, and gargled with bleach!

    In all seriousness, it is clear that we overreacted, and hopefully we can learn from our mistakes. Or can we?

    It is awesome to see you post again James! I hope you are well, and enjoying this amazing planet with those you love.

    • suyts says:

      I am indeed in the bosom of the people who love me! I moved (still in SE Kansas) but, closer to my brothers and two houses away from my mom!

      Yes, our ancestors managed small pox, polio, and a host of other much more devastating diseases, and we ……. failed them and their memory. I am terribly ashamed of many of my fellow citizens. But, that’s for another post.

      It’s awesome to see you comment, Gator. How have you been?

      • Gator says:

        Thankfully I am doing well. I ditched the long commute to the big city for a job with a local bank, and love being a larger part of my community. Because I am considered an essential worker, the lockdown hasn’t changed things much for me, except for cancelled vacation plans.

        So good to know you are well, and it does my heart good to know you are close to your family in these trying times. Thanks for posting an update, and your thoughts, which are always appreciated.

  3. Martin C says:

    Hi James,
    Although i am not as regular posting comments as others, I do check you blog every so often; glad I checked today. Good to see a post from you again.

    Things in Arizona haven’t been that bad, but i sure hate being FORCED to wear a mask in Costco. and the ‘limiting’ of people in the stores, (which started not long before the wearing masks). I have actually have only gone once there since they ‘mandated’ wearing the mask about 3 weeks ago (I think). Not sure i understand it now. The ‘shutdown’ in AZ wasn’t as bad as other states; and fortunate that i work for a ‘defense contractor’ so was considered ‘essential’.

    I followed a lot of articles early on, and agree the shutdown was absurd. It is a ‘cold virus’, though it does have a greater ‘virulency’ than other corona viruses, which can be dangerous to elderly and those with underlying conditions. But not to the vast majority of people.

    I really thought the ‘shutdown’ would likely be done in early to mid May, and when it wasn’t, I wrote to my representatives (state and national), senators, and the governor, with postings to articles that showed it was unneeded. I figured nothing would happen, but at least I can say ‘I tried’ . I even wrote a letter to our church along the same line, pointing out how wrong Fauci has been, the ‘morphing’ from ‘flatten the curve’, to now it’s ‘staying safe’, which i believe the reasons to keep the masks/physical distancing. Ridiculous in my opinion, society can’t continue like this indefinite . . .

    .. ok, i have carried on enough. Hope you continue to post, even if it is every week or two . . take care, and stay well.

  4. Hank Hancock says:

    Howdy James!

    I’m a little late to the party but wanted to echo the comments of all the other good folks commenting (all of them I remember well). It is good to see you posting again.

    I hope all is well with you and yours. All is well on this end. Like others, there have been a lot of changes in my life but, fortunately, most have been good.

    This whole COVID-19 lockdown nonsense has served to hurt a lot of good people. A friend and his wife both lost their good paying jobs and health insurance with a special needs child. Government assistance was very delayed, resulting in them having to live in a travel trailer to survive. He just got called back to work. Her job is permanently gone. The company folded. Just one example of tens of thousands of formerly secure families that got screwed royally by the stupidity of ordering the closing non-essential businesses.

    • suyts says:

      Wow, I can’t believe it’s been this long since I checked in! Hank, it’s great hearing from you! I’m very glad things are going well with you and yours. I’m okay, as well, though, not without a bit of struggle. My job has downsized a lot! Hours were cut, people gone. I’m still there and things are very slowly picking up, but, dependent upon the election, I can see where we’ll have problems keeping the doors open if we have a national shutdown. I work in the aero-industry, now. No one needs airplane parts if no one is flying. Still, on a personal basis, I’m doing alright!

      • Lyle Hancock says:

        I’m glad to hear you’re hanging in there on a personal basis. My wife and I retired from medical research. As you may recall, she was the medical brains and I was the bean counter who did the biostatistics for research at the center and the several universities associated.

        We left the city and are building a cabin on 24 acres of wooded land in the remote alpine zone of N. Arizona. We are totally off-grid. It has been a major transition from hot desert to alpine climate were we get all four seasons – 72 inches of snow on average in the winter, which is quickly approaching. We’ve been on our land for three years now and almost finished building the cabin. I am not retired yet. I still do stuff to put food on the table.

        I sure miss the days we collaborated and kicked butt! I would like very much to keep in contact with you, my friend. My old email address no longer works as I retired from the company. I am on Facebook as Lyle Hancock Sr. If you can’t find me, let me know and I’ll provide my current email address. It would be nice to reconnect. 🙂

        • suyts says:

          I’ll be sending you a friend request very soon! And, yes, I’ve fond memories of our collaborations. Maybe again, at some point!

      • Hank Hancock says:

        For some reason, Hank was not shown. I don’t know why. But it is me – Hank. Lyle is my given name and Hank is what friends call me. Anyway, all the best, James.

  5. Robert C. says:

    Have just redone your chart using your data sources updated to 22Sep2020.
    Including DC, 26 Democratic led states have 15269 Covid-19 deaths (587.3/MM), 25 Republican led states have 10465 Covid-19 deaths (418.6/MM). Generously using the larger number in the numerator (to make the resulting percentages smaller), and depending upon the metric, one has a 28% – 31% higher chance of dying from contracting Covid-19 in a Democratic led state as opposed to a Republican led state.
    But as you have said, correlation does not equal causation.

  6. Jim Masterson says:

    Also, having a governor who is a part of the Democrat party, and lastly, living under a wannabe totalitarian, power hungry nutjob for a governor, which, alas, is pretty much redundant with having a Democrat for a governor. But, then, people deserve the government they have, so there’s that.

    Unfortunately, when one lives in one of those stink-holes (like the Peoples’ Democratic Republic of Washington State), it’s impossible to vote for the government we deserve, because of the voter fraud.


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