Tonight will be the first of three debates between Hillary and Donald. It is only the first debate. It’s interesting, to say the least.
Here’s how I reckon it ……. Hillary has an advantage simply because she’s much more experienced at such forums. Recall, the entirety of Trump’s debate experience had him throwing one-liners out at people on a stage full of people, each struggling to get their voices heard. At the time, and now, I didn’t like the forum, format, nor the style in which Trump engaged. It hardened my dislike for him. I didn’t like what he said, or how he said it. That said, history demonstrates he was very effective. But again, this will be an entirely different set of circumstances. During the Repub primaries, he was speaking to ….. well, Repubs, which, most lean to the right. Tonight the makeup of the audience will be significantly different. The people he needs to convince will be different.
But, that brings me to a Trump advantage. I’ve stated this before, and will reiterate. The Dims have painted such a horrid caricature of Trump that the only expectation a LSM viewer can have of Trump is that he’ll start foaming at the mouth within the first minute! All he has to do is come off as a normal human and he’ll win!
Now, I did mention maps, right? And, this goes to the earlier point as to the people he now needs to convince that he’s the best option for POTUS.
In the past, I typically relied only on some individual polling outfits and one aggregate site, RCP. However, past experience has taught me that the individual polling outfits weren’t really all that accurate. So, this year, I decided to follow 2 aggregate sites and one polling outfit that I hadn’t in the past. Yes, I’m still checking out RCP, because that’s the best place, I’ve found, to get the most recent polling data. But, I’ve also started checking out 538, because Nate Silver seemed to be the most accurate on the last election. I’m also watching the Reuters/IPSOS polling. They’re an individual polling outfit. I’ve linked to each sites’ maps! I’ll start with Reuters ……..
Now, the color code isn’t hard to understand. The red are the states they’re saying are Trump’s right now, the blue, Clinton’s. The more red, the more support for Trump, and the more blue the more for Clinton. The grey are states they deem too close to call, or, that there’s not enough information on the states to make the call. The points of interest on this map are Florida and Ohio. They’re polling for Clinton according to Reuters. Trump has to have both to win the election. Oddly, though, it has Oregon as “too close to call”. BTW, R.I. Alaska, Wyoming, and D.C. are greyed because there isn’t enough polling data. Alaska and Wyoming will go to Trump, R.I. and D.C will go to Clinton. Each have 3 electoral votes. Reuters seems to favor Clinton in the interpretation of their polling. I would also point out North Carolina.
Let’s look and see what RCP’s map looks like ……….
Now, you’ll notice there’s a lot more grey, which they declare as toss-ups. Their threshold for “toss-up” status is pretty wide. Most of them, though, I would agree, as of now, they are toss-ups. Some are not. Georgia, for instance ……. here’s the latest polls from Georgia
While it’s tight, Trump has consistently polled ahead of Clinton over the last few weeks in Georgia. No, I’m not alleging bias in this, it’s just that their threshold is too large.
That’s one of the reasons why I like the 538 site. They predict odds on the election.
Now, this is from a model of “polling only” from the 538 site, (they’ve a couple of other models). Notice FL, NC, and OH. Now, this may seem odd, because if you look at the states map and do the calculations, Trump will win if all of the predictions for Trump come true, yet, they still give Hillary a 55% chance of winning. Again, no, it isn’t bias. (BTW, this is the closest I’ve seen 538 predict Trump) They’re just predicting odds. Yes, they have Trump favored to narrowly win in FL, NC, OH, and NV. But, what are the odds that he’ll actually win all of those?
Trump’s path to victory is more narrow than Hillary’s. But, we all knew that going in. By my calcs, any Dim starts with a 162-143 advantage. That is, the total electoral votes which are assumed Dim/Repub. Other’s can quibble about the actual numbers I came up with, but, the point is Dims hold a near automatic advantage. Some states, such as California, and Hawaii, will vote Dim regardless, throughout the rest of my life. The same is true for some states and Repub, only they don’t hold the population of the Dim states. It would be much worse if not for the Founding Fathers’ foresight!!! We get 3 at minimum! This is because the Founding Fathers hating the notion of a true democracy, thank God!
But, I digress. The point is, Trump has to convince, not the people in the deep red states, but, rather, the people in the light blue states, and the other pale states.
But, what does all this mean? Not a damned thing. What counts is what happens tonight and what happens in the next debates. Right now, the whole race is a “toss-up”. Now, with all the chatter, all the blather, all the bickering that has gone on, the American people get to see and hear each candidate in person. This is what will win, or lose, the election for either candidate.
Now, we all know the LSM will do everything they can to spin this as a huge Trump defeat. Trump wins if he doesn’t give them an in. But, there will be two more debates.
That’s all I got, for now! What do you think?