US Politics Update!!!!!!

Well, I haven’t written a piece in a while, and thought it time.  It is time, but, I’m a bit uninspired, as of now.  Most of my thoughts are directed towards work problems, rather than national or international.  And, most of the national and international problems have already been covered here, at Suyts. 

Lately I’ve been amused/bemused by the coverage of the two presidential nomination races.  Yes, there are other parties in the US, no, they don’t matter.  And, they won’t.  But, that’s for later. 

Most of the focus is on the Republican race.  This is for various reasons, but, it’s amusing/bemusing, just the same. 

There have been recent events at the state level regarding the Republican nominating process, some questioning the democracy of it.  All of the media seemed to happily highlight these events while barely noting the Dims’ process.

Here’s some humorous irony.  The Democrats ……..

Without the super-delegates, this would be a most interesting horse-race, with about a 54/46 split between the candidates.  But, the Democrats actually eschew democracy in any real form, be it direct or representative.  As it stands now, with about 2/3 of the states done, Hillary only needs just over 600 more delegates to win the nomination, while Bernie needs more than twice that amount.  It appears the Democrat nomination process is simply a formality they go through.  It’s nice that they have it, because it causes them to spend money they would otherwise use in the general election.  Repubs should thank them for it. 

As to if I have a preference of one over the other ….. well, if the American people are stupid enough to elect a loud and proud socialist, then, I say let them have one.  All over the world for nearly 100 years we have countless examples of the misery and harm done to people worldwide by socialist regimes.  It boggles the mind that anyone could consider it a viable economic/political thought.  It’s the ultimate in sophistry.  But, that’s just hypothetical.  The Dims aren’t going to allow the open socialist to win (this time).  They’ve already picked the semi-closet socialist. 

It’s interesting.  With all the fervor and energy coming from the Sanders campaign, I wonder how many will just sit the general election out if when Hillary wins the Dim nomination?  A significant amount, I would imagine.  I’ve read some comment dialogues between Hillary and Sanders supporters.  It is very much like reading comments between Trump/Cruz/Establishment supporters.  The vitriol is out of hand in both. 

Don’t get me wrong, I’m all about vitriol in comment sections. 

But, this is a new dynamic in American politics.  <——- MARK THIS!!!!!

I have openly stated that I will not vote for Donald Trump.  But, my reasoning and rationale is entirely different than what we are all about to experience. 

The old notion was that the parties have their primaries and then nearly all of the party voters coalesce around the candidate which was victorious.  People, that’s simply not going to happen this time around. 

It’s probably too late to go read, now, for those who haven’t read this.  Mostly because of the common association dynamic …… people tend to associate with people they relate to.  So, for example, you will find fewer and fewer Cruz supporters commenting at Breitbart.  There are still some.  But, when you read the comments, you absolutely know the animus created won’t allow most of these people to ever come to an agreement with the antagonist. 

I think this will adversely effect the Republican party more than the Democrat party, but, human nature is human nature.  One can’t constantly go around demeaning, attacking, belittling a candidate for months on end, and then suddenly become their supporter simply because the party they belong to picked the wrong person.  Human nature doesn’t allow for that.  Sure, there will be a lot of the “lesser of two evils” people still participating, but, not to the extent we’ve seen in the past. 

You see, this is the age of new media.  Most have Facebook, Twitter, …… whatnot.  And, they have comment sections.  The very nature of such is given to hyperbole and vitriol.  The more bombastic the more effective and noteworthy, the more “followers” and “friending” and whatnot.  But, if it’s on your Facebook/Twitter, etc …. for months on end, and even if you’re a regular commentator at a site, then, you can’t suddenly switch and start supporting the very person you called a demon of all sorts.  It’s just not going to happen for most people participating in such behavior. 

Unless there’s a 3rd party, which probably isn’t going to happen, we’re going to experience some very low voter turnout.  Republicans are enjoying a much larger turnout increase than the Dims, for the primaries.  I honestly don’t know how that’s going to translate in the election.  The Sanders people are going to be butthurt.  They’re going to be mad.  But, they are Dims and Socialists, so, appearing hypocritical is less of a hurdle than for most Repubs. 

But, then, Trump supporters are going to be butthurt, as well. <—- MARK THIS!!!!!

More on the amusement/bemusement ……….

So, the Republicans in Colorado had their ….. non-caucus/non-primary the other day.  Cruz won big there.  Why?  Because the Cruz campaign understood the rules which have been there since before the campaigns started.  Trump and supporters have attempted to cast team Cruz as doing something untoward for cleaning their clock in Colorado.  Which, I thought was silly.  It’s like an admittance that Cruz and team have a command of the English language while Trump and team don’t.  <—— That’s a hard sell for an anti-immigrant candidate.  But, I digress.  Colorado isn’t the only place team Cruz has clowned team Trump.  It’s happened very frequently over the last couple of weeks.  That is to say, for the most part, team Cruz has been very effective at getting the delegates elected that they wanted elected, with the exception of Michigan, mostly because team Cruz hurt team Kasich’s feelings.  But, Michigan is probably an aberration.  The reason I say/write that is because of this …….

The Texas Tribune’s Patrick Svitek posted an excerpt of a memo from the John Kasich campaign to supporters where it’s argued that Kasich still has a shot in Pennsylvania because the state awards its delegates “proportionally by congressional district.”

That’s a great theory, governor … but it’s not true: ……

You see, with the exception of just a few delegates, Pennsylvania’s process is similar to Colorado’s.  It’s the delegates who get elected which matter.  Indeed, Penn has more than twice the delegates Colorado has.   While it appears that Trump will carry the popular vote among Repubs in Penn, Cruz appears to be about even with Trump in potential delegates ….. from what people can garner, as of now. 

And FWIW, Kasich is barely competing for delegates anyway:

.@kerpen @PatrickSvitek has the Kasich campaign even provided a delegate slate for PA?

— Joel (@CommodoreBTC) April 10, 2016

@CommodoreBTC They have two guy leaning their way, one of whom is unopposed. I’m keeping a running chart here:https://t.co/E0ZeI7dCOq

There’s proportional, and then, there’s proportional.

For a brief review, there are a couple of different meanings to “proportional” in this regard.  Some states award delegates proportional to the statewide vote.  Others allocate a certain amount of delegates proportional to the statewide vote, but, also award delegates proportional to the votes per congressional district.  One of the two biggest prizes left do this, that is to say New York and California.  In New York, there’s a 50% trigger, that is if someone wins 50% of the state, then, they get all of the delegates the state awarded to the state-wide vote, but, not the individual congressional districts.  In New York, the congressional districts also have a 50% trigger, specific to the voting in the specific congressional district. 

Cruz is going to lose the NE horribly, by the voting.  His delegate pickup will out-perform the actual votes.  I can almost guarantee you team Cruz already knows the districts they can’t win, and the districts they can win, that is to say, districts in which they can keep Trump under the 50% trigger.  Oh, yeh, Cruz wasn’t campaigning in New York, today.  He was in Cali.  In Cali, they do it different.  It’s winner take all …… according to district, for the most part.  Like New York, they award some delegates by the state-wide vote, but, also by congressional district.  But, it isn’t proportional.  Whoever gets the most votes, wins all of the delegates. 

Why are congressional districts important in this regard?

The Congressional District thing is vitally important – like New York, California has a bunch of CDs that are absolutely dominated by Democrats, which means that the few Republicans that are there have a lot more bang for their delegate buck than in other CDs.

So, will some heavily weighted Democrat congressional districts in New York and California, let’s say, predominately Hispanic or more specifically Cuban, tend to lean more towards Cruz or Trump?  Well, as far as I can tell, it’s about even, until you realize team Cruz knows where to focus and team Trump doesn’t.  Then, it’s not even. 

Each state in the US is unique.  Each state has their own view of how people should be elected and nominated.  It’s part of the reason why it is called a “state” rather than a providence or some such.  They have their own vision, their own way, and their own rules.  Learning said rules, to me anyway, would have seemed prudent, wise, and dare I say, smart.