Sometimes one just has to take a bow. I had a feeling this would pop up shortly.
So our friend Jimmy Hansen has written another paper.
As is all the rage with the nutters, they like to quote Rahmstorf et al ‘s (2012). Which essentially says if the globe hadn’t quit warming, it would be warmer today. They rationalize, theorize if this happened, and that happened….. ENSO, volcanoes, and stuff happened to get in the way of our global warming. Some of my more crude friends would put it like so….. “and if a frog had a glass ass, he wouldn’t jump so high“. Or, ‘if “ifs” and “buts” were candy and nuts, we’d all have a merry Christmas’.
It’s really interesting lately. They’re all running up and down rationalizing why their predictions of the world hotting up is wrong, but, then are insisting that they were really right, after they were wrong, but wrong only because….. only because…… well, you all are probably evil deniers!!! So there!!
Jimmy is no different. He’s uttered this silliness before. It’s interesting how the nutters feed off of themselves. But, I digress.
As the title implies, Hansen says we’re doing something to keep the temps down even though CO2 levels are continuing their near exponential increases. His final paragraph states…..
The principal implication of our present analysis probably relates to the Faustian bargain. Increased short-term masking of greenhouse gas warming by fossil fuel particulate and nitrogen pollution represents a ‘doubling down’ of the Faustian bargain, an increase in the stakes. The more we allow the Faustian debt to build, the more unmanageable the eventual consequences will be. Yet globally there are plans to build more than 1000 coal-fired power plants (Yang and Cui 2012) and plans to develop some of the dirtiest oil sources on the planet (EIA 2011). These plans should be vigorously resisted. We are already in a deep hole—it is time to stop digging.
Wow, you don’t often read conclusions worded quite like that.
Earlier in the paper he was more specific…….
We suggest that the huge post-2000 increase of uptake by the carbon sinks implied by figure 3 is related to the simultaneous sharp increase in coal use (figure 1). Increased coal use occurred primarily in China and India (Boden et al 2012; BP 2012; see graphs at www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Emissions/Emis_moreFigs/). [bad link ] Satellite radiance measurements for July–December, months when desert dust does not dominate aerosol amount, yield an increase of aerosol optical depth in East Asia of about 4% yr-1 during 2000–2006 (van Donkelaar et al 2008). Associated gaseous and particulate emissions increased rapidly after 2000 in China and India (Lu et al 2011, Tian et al 2010). Some decrease of the sulfur component of emissions occurred in China after 2006 as wide application of flue-gas desulfurization began to be initiated (Lu et al 2010), but this was largely offset by continuing emission increases from India (Lu et al 2011).
Hmm…… well it seems Jimmy should have read suyts space, first.
His meme is destroyed before he even got it started.
Well, if not suyts space, then maybe some actual science literature.
From the introduction……
Previous assessments of the global emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2) included estimates until the year 2005 (Smith et al 2011) and showed substantial regional changes in emissions patterns in recent decades, along with a slight increase in global emissions from 2000 to 2005. Several regional studies have compiled inventories for more recent years (e.g., Tørseth et al 2012, EEA 2011, Lu et al 2011, Wang and Hao 2012, US EPA 2012) and a number of countries submit emissions data to international bodies under various international treaties (e.g., UNFCCC: www.unfccc.org, UNECE CLRTAP: www.ceip.at). However, a global assessment covering recent years has been missing and we, therefore, present here an estimate of global SO2 emissions up to 2011.
This work makes use of the statistical data on energy consumption until 2011 (BP 2012, IEA 2012), and recent reporting under several international treaties. The results are compared with previous global and regional assessments.
Notice Klimont et al are using some of the same sources Hansen quoted. Except, Klimont seems a bit more comprehensive. …… okay, a lot more…… uhmm, I believe “robust” is the word cli-sci likes to use.
Jimmy did get some of it right. India is continuing to increase their SO2 emissions. But, the globe? Not so much.
Now, astute people would note this is a different time frame. Just so there’s no confusion, From Klimont’s SI table 3, I was able to graph the global estimates from 2000 to 2011.
Jimmy quoted to 2006 and then just guessed the rest. Likely because it fit the narrative he wished to present. As you can see, from that point, global SO2 emissions have significantly dropped off. As they typically have been for nearly 25 years!!!!
I’m told science is coming up with a hypothesis and then trying to prove yourself wrong. When will these cli-sci nutters start actually doing, … you know, …… science?
Faustian bargain…… was Hansen’s bargain a trade off between advocating and actually doing science? I’ll be charitable and say he was probably just too busy to worry about the details of SO2 emissions for the last 6 years!!!! Even though his entire hypothesis depends on knowing what occurred recently!!
Jimmy, Rahmy, Kaufmann, and Mikey ……… try again, ladies, you’re incorrect.