Steve has alerted us to more of the Guardian’s embracing of sophist thoughts, and poor math skills.
So, a few of pinheads thought they’d prove how accurate climate predictors really, really are. Myles R. Allen, John F. B. Mitchell & Peter A. Stott
They even give us a graph!!!
Here’s the caption to the graph…..
The climate forecast published in 1999 is showed by the dashed black line. Actual temperatures are shown by the red line (as a 10-year mean) and yellow diamonds (for individual years). The graph shows that temperatures rose somewhat faster than predicted in the early 2000s before returning to the forecasted trend in the last few years. Photograph: Nature Geoscience
The other day, I wrote a post showing how scale and time frequencies can exaggerate things like a hockey stick. And that it must be done right to put things in proper perspective.
Well, the same principle works in reverse as well. If you want to obscure things, just increase the frequency mean, or in this case the time mean.
Watch the disappearing “flatness” presenting the last 10-15 years.
Here’s the monthly view…..
Here’s the annual…..
Here’s the 5 year…..
Here’s the 10 year mean…..
Let’s size it right….
Throw a couple of huge diamond looking things with some yellow sprinkles around an you’ve totally obscured the flatness, and clear deviation from the prediction. And then lastly, be sure to start your prediction line below the actual temp start point.
No one uses a ten-year running mean for a decadal forecast. That’s beyond stupid. I’d like to see the original prediction to see if that was indeed the frequency used. I doubt it. But, that’s not the stupidest thing……
What I think is deliciously stupid is that these people based this article on Myles Allen’s projection. Myles Allen….. Myles Allen…. now where have we heard that name recently? Oh, yes, I know!!!!
Academics are revising their views after acknowledging the miscalculation. Last night Myles Allen, Oxford University’s Professor of Geosystem Science, said that until recently he believed the world might be on course for a catastrophic temperature rise of more than five degrees this century.
But he now says: ‘The odds have come down,’ – adding that warming is likely to be significantly lower. Prof Allen says higher estimates are now ‘looking iffy’.
Well Myles, which is it? Were you spot on or not?