## Myles Allen Was Wrong Before He Was Right!!! LOL, Yeh I’d Hide That Behind A Paywall, Too!!!

Steve has alerted us to more of the Guardian’s embracing of sophist thoughts, and poor math skills.

So, a few of pinheads thought they’d prove how accurate climate predictors really, really are.  Myles R. Allen, John F. B. Mitchell & Peter A. Stott

### Global warming predictions prove accurate

They even give us a graph!!!

Here’s the caption to the graph…..

The climate forecast published in 1999 is showed by the dashed black line. Actual temperatures are shown by the red line (as a 10-year mean) and yellow diamonds (for individual years). The graph shows that temperatures rose somewhat faster than predicted in the early 2000s before returning to the forecasted trend in the last few years. Photograph: Nature Geoscience

The other day, I wrote a post showing how scale and time frequencies can exaggerate things like a hockey stick.  And that it must be done right to put things in proper perspective.

Well, the same principle works in reverse as well.  If you want to obscure things, just increase the frequency mean, or in this case the time mean.

Watch the disappearing “flatness” presenting the last 10-15 years.

Here’s the monthly view…..

Here’s the annual…..

Here’s the 5 year…..

Here’s the 10 year mean…..

Let’s size it right….

Throw a couple of huge diamond looking things with some yellow sprinkles around an you’ve totally obscured the flatness, and clear deviation from the prediction.  And then lastly, be sure to start your prediction line below the actual temp start point.

No one uses a ten-year running mean for a decadal forecast.  That’s beyond stupid.  I’d like to see the original prediction to see if that was indeed the frequency used.  I doubt it.  But, that’s not the stupidest thing……

What I think is deliciously stupid is that these people based this article on Myles Allen’s projection. Myles Allen….. Myles Allen…. now where have we heard that name recently?  Oh, yes, I know!!!!

Academics are revising their views after acknowledging the miscalculation. Last night Myles Allen, Oxford University’s Professor of Geosystem Science, said that until recently he believed the world might be on course for a catastrophic temperature rise of more than five degrees this century.

But he now says: ‘The odds have come down,’ – adding that warming is likely to be significantly lower. Prof Allen says higher estimates are now ‘looking iffy’.

Well Myles, which is it?  Were you spot on or not?

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### 15 Responses to Myles Allen Was Wrong Before He Was Right!!! LOL, Yeh I’d Hide That Behind A Paywall, Too!!!

1. kim2ooo says:

Reblogged this on Climate Ponderings and commented:
*CLAPPING*

• suyts says:

You’re going to love my next one then!

• Latitude says:

• suyts says:

Acckk!!! Pressure!!!! Give me a couple of minutes!!! 🙂 Jimmy isn’t going to like this….

• miked1947 says:

Jimmy does not Just with Jesters! 😉

2. HankH says:

LOL, I continue to smile in amusement at these alarmists and their uncontainable desire to see warming in everything. How they resort to graph trickery shows great imagination.

• suyts says:

I just don’t get how they think this isn’t going to get noticed. The guy was just quoted in an international newspaper!!!

• HankH says:

It goes unnoticed not because of the trickery of graphs but because there’s an insensitivity that is fostered when people are told snow will soon be a thing of the past. Meanwhile they’re dealing with snow and cold that is at 30 year records and facing fuel poverty. People are tired of listening to the little boy that cried “global warming!” They’re more interested in the best prices on a snow blower.

• suyts says:

Well, that’s true, too. People are tired of hearing about it and they’re tired of paying for it.

3. Bruce says:

Crafty piece of propaganda. A ten year centred average which leaves off in 2008 so it looks less like the data is truncated, Mann 1995 Powerpoint graph style.

What this means is he is well aware of the temperature hiatus and is trying to hide it. You cannot come to any other conclusion. I call that ethically dishonest at very least. An honest scientist would have the raw data and the averaged trend on the one graph for everyone to see. That is what I do with data in circumstances like that.

• suyts says:

I especially like the large diamond shaped dots they used to further obscure the hiatus of warming. I kept wondering why they didn’t just use big crayons to color over it.

4. cdquarles says:

Don’t forget that you can’t trust the ‘temperature anomaly’ graphs, either, due to changes that overwrite the previous ‘data’ and that it is hard to actually track down the original raw data.

• suyts says:

I was kind of hoping some nutter would come by and reference a GISS plot.

5. William May says:

I’m a simple citizen.Our Tax money is used in Millions to pay for ‘safeguards’ for our future.Those who ‘take’ this money have now been proven to have been ‘fooled’ by vested interests and ‘Green’ fanatics.I just want to know if, or when ,we will be repaid this mistakenly used outlay.
Or is that a stupid question ? I had no say in the taking of that money,Very rich people seem to have become even richer from it.The lower parts of our society are having to struggle on as ever,with energy bills etc increasing.When will we see some logic coming into this?
Am I alone out here?

• suyts says:

William, welcome! No, you’re not alone. This idiotic climate campaign has always been a war on the poor. From depriving the poor nations of basic reliable electricity, to raising the cost of food because of the idiotic ethanol, all of the actions of the climate nutters and in collusion with the government was intended to keep the poor, poor.