Even Applying Climate Statistical Approaches Govt Still Fails Economy

 

The Fed is using a wonderful Hansenian statistical technique which keeps our economy in a perpetual state of increasing improvement.  This is pretty nice, because we all know an ‘always improving’ economy is good for all of us.

As we all know, our earth is always getting warmer.  Much of this is achieved by making the past cooler.  Apparently the government liked this approach so much, they’ve decided to employ this in an effort to fix our economy.

….a second reading on U.S. gross domestic product showed the economy expanded at an annualized rate of 1.9% in the first quarter, in line with economists’ estimates, but slower than an initial estimate of 2.2%.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 383,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday.

The prior week’s figure was revised up to 373,000 from the previously reported 370,000. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims unchanged last week.

The problem with this approach is that they are clearly not revising hard enough.  If they were to revise the GDP down to 0% growth, then the next quarter would be hailed as great news even if the GDP only grew at an annualized rate of 1%!  And, if they just adjust the unemployment up to 500,00 then, next month when the unemployment is reported as 400,000 new applicants Obama would be hailed as an economic genius! 

This is actually happening a little quicker than I thought.   How do you like your recessions, one dip or two?

Read more here.

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11 Responses to Even Applying Climate Statistical Approaches Govt Still Fails Economy

  1. Latitude says:

    First, we haven’t come out of the first recession/depression yet…..so calling it a double dip is just them trying to claim they did better than they did
    What we’re going to do….is go into a severe depression

    • miked1947 says:

      No going about it! They have been hiding the Depression issue for a few years and finding ways to not alarm the voters.
      This is the fool most of the people some of the time scenario. When reality pops its head out Shit will hit the fan and it looks as if reality is being revealed before the election rather than after as some were hoping.

  2. Jim Masterson says:

    >>
    The Fed is using a wonderful Hansenian statistical technique which keeps our economy in a perpetual state of increasing improvement.
    <<

    I’ve posted these graphs on several blogs. Back during the big 1999 global warming scare, I thought I would look at Death Valley. (I actually got the idea from John Daly.) Two areas are supposed to show the CO2 warming first: deserts and the poles. That’s because they are dry and don’t have water vapor to deal with–at least that’s how the argument goes.

    I noticed that during the hot year of 1999, Death Valley had its third coolest year. It wasn’t very supportive of the “dry places will show CO2 warming first” theory.

    So I store my data away and didn’t look at it for several years. Then I thought I’d look at the latest data on Death Valley. Somehow the numbers didn’t jive with my recollection, so I pulled out my old data.

    You can see that Hanson’s been busy modifying the temperature record. It looks like he is making older data look cooler and newer data look warmer. If you compare my first graph with John Daly’s, you’ll see that they match.

    It reminds me of 1984.

    Jim

    • suyts says:

      Exactly. It’s depressing. But, I think much of this is unraveling. When I went to high-school, 1984 was mandatory reading. I don’t think it is in very many schools these days.

      But, yes, we’re continuing to warm by artificially dropping historical temps as they get further away from the present. I’ve seen some alleged “skeptics” and lukewarmers actually defend Hansen’s algorithms.

    • suyts says:

      Jim do you have your original data? GISS now has gaps in the record.

  3. Pingback: Dynamic History Through The Magical Hansenian Algorerhythm Vaporizes Entire Years | suyts space

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