How Florida is Shaping Up

A new NBC/Marist poll shows Romney up 15 over Gingrich in Florida, 42 percent to 27 percent. Rick Santorum is third with 16 percent, followed by Ron Paul with 11 percent. Four percent said they are undecided.

Many of the pundits are saying Romney’s lead is due to negative ads funded by Romney’s sizable war chest.  I think it has more to do with Gingrich’s strategy to attempt to hammer on Romney’s success as a venture capitalist.  And, his hypocrisy about Mitt making money on Freddie and Fannie.  Though, the advertising money certainly helps Mitt.

Most Republicans are aware of what the words “blind trust” and “mutual funds” mean.  Attacking successful capitalism simply doesn’t play well with Republicans.  It is the antithesis of what conservatives typically holds.  Moon stations probably doesn’t help either.  Gingrich needs to tact in a different direction or he may get confused with a SCoaMF.  He needs to remember what propelled him in South Carolina was his anti established media rhetoric.  For Republicans, this plays well regardless of the area. 

Santorum while espousing solid fiscal conservative ideas is cast as a social conservative.  While there are parts in Florida that plays well, it may not in others.  Santorum, if he’s going to make any headway, must attack Gingrich in the South.  While many southern states have a heavy populous of social conservatives, they see Newt as the favored son.  Santorum will probably make better headway in the plains states. 

Paul has forgone Florida and concentrated elsewhere.  Paul has a legitimate shot at carrying some states.  His success in the primary relies on all of the candidates staying in the race.  It remains to be seen how much endurance and finances these guys have. 

Read more: here and here.

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1 Response to How Florida is Shaping Up

  1. Latitude says:

    What most people don’t get about Florida…is the snow birds.
    They are working the center part of the state, which is mostly New Englanders, New Jersey, etc. Romney is going to play better there.
    The rest of the state is “stay at home” republicans, especially the large Cuban and Brazilian populations in the south and the Panhandle. They are following Newt and not polling or taking part in this circus.
    I would bet if it came to a vote today, Newt would win hands down…..

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