From the Guardian…….
European carbon price ‘inching ever closer to zero’
Funny stuff.
Value of the European emissions trading scheme and UN CDM fell 35% in 2012, Point Carbon analysts warn
“Dramatic”, “enduring”, “meltdown” – the words used by leading analyst firm Thomson Reuters Point Carbon to describe the continued slump in global carbon prices could not be starker. And according to analysts the chances of prices recovering in the near future remain extremely thin.
The company today released data for 2012 showing that, while the volume of carbon traded globally rose 28 per cent to 10.7Gt, the value of the market fell 35 per cent to €62bn as the price of allowances in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) and UN Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) collapsed.
“In Europe, prices plunged as it became clear that the EU’s Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) is over-allocated all the way to 2020, mainly due to the impact of Europe’s economic troubles on emissions”, explained Anders Nordeng, senior carbon analyst at Thomson Reuters Point Carbon and co-editor of the report.
“Unless European policy makers quickly agree to take action, either through backloading or some form of long-term structural change, we are now facing the prospect of the carbon prices in Europe inching ever closer to zero.”
It isn’t so much over allocating as it is missing the economic projections. The EU economy in general is crap. Less doing, less need for emission permission. (heh 
)
Speaking to BusinessGreen, Nordeng said oversupply in the European market was now so severe that the record low carbon prices of under €3 a tonne that have been seen in recent weeks were only stopped from falling further by hopes the EU may eventually reform the market.
I don’t have any particular insights on this, or particular interest, other than laughing at the absurd economic know-nothings who put this scheme into action. It would probably work better if they had an economic literate person to help. But, Europe’s economists in the bureaucracy aren’t, so this is what happens.
Here’s what I think. Eventually, they’re restructure and drag some of the allocations off the market. If one can, (depending on how they’ll restructure) I’d buy at €3. If they’re going to destroy their own economy, you might as well get paid for it.
suyts space 
3 Euros? That’s arbitrary. Do NOT trade this without advance inside information.
Whether you buy at 3 Euro or at 1.50 – you can lose exactly 100%.
Once tried to ride solar stocks. A costly experience. I made the mistake you just sketched – I thought “Now they’re cheap!”. Well, they continued to get cheaper.
Well, I should have put the disclaimer…… there’s always risk! 🙂 And, yes, it can go lower. I’m just curious how they’ll handle pulling the credits off the market.
Exactly! Think of all those GM Bond holders 4 years ago – “WOW! Obama will never let them sink! I got to get these now at this rock bottom price!”.
P.T. Barnum said it.
About the same cost as a 1 liter bottle of Greek table wine, and nearly as valuable.
Nearly, not quite!
Since UN CER’s are about €0.34/t at the moment that would suggest EU carbon credits have to drop by at least another 90% before they approach true, er, value.
Well, as I read recently, the world has a long history of people selling worthless stuff to excited punters. Caveat emptor.
When supply exceeds demand the price must fall to zero. The fair value is zero. Not more.
The problem of this “market” is that the supply is fixed by contract between the states. They did not envision a scenario where their idiotic policies actually manage to wreck the EU economy so much that the agreed upon supply would exceed demand.
I wonder if it occurs to them that they can’t just agree on an economy? They should have a meeting on that. 😀
Hurry up and get your carbon credits while they still have value. Buy yours today before the price goes down! They won’t last long (honestly)! I think that’s pretty much been their marketing strategy.
P.S. Howdy from Belize, James. I’m glad the Internet works down here so I can get my daily read at suyts space.
Howdy back to Belize! What are you doing down there?
Down consulting on some technology design in the area of IPTv and national core fiber network buildout. It gets me outta the house, LOL.
I suppose it would!
Hmm, listen to the market. These credits are worth exactly what they’re telling you. Dropping to their actual value of zero. A made up market based on false premises has what value? Zero. None. Zilch. Nada. Bail out of the Green Insanity now, before you really do ‘destroy the planet’.