Early Christmas Gift From The Warmista!!! Blast From The Past!!! WAIS Again!!!

This really isn’t my bailiwick, this is for the people who like to torture numbers and pretend there is some semblance of reality in their final product.  For me, I love numbers.  But, in the form less tortured.  My thoughts from a long past post….

I’m not saying statistics are bad, they’re not.  Further, good honest statistics are required for advancement of civilization in general, and in the specific case of climate science, we are in dire need.  I gave up on being a statistician of any sorts long ago.  I did as soon as I realized, in the wrong hands, my beautiful numbers weren’t simply a seductive siren on a pole, but could manipulated as easily as a pimp manipulates a street walker in search of her next fix.  Its best to keep the numbers as straightforward as possible.  The less statistical acrobatics needed, the less times you’ll see her on a pole.  1+1 still equals 2, its just that she doesn’t seem to in the same way she used to.

Long time climate warriors will recall the O’Donnell/Steig row.  It was about the temperature in the Antarctic.  There was particular disagreement about the WAIS.  No, not the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.  Here’s a starter kit for those who need their memory jogged.

O’Donnell et al 2010 Refutes Steig et al 2009

O’Donnell et al entirely destroyed Steig et al.  Look at the graphics from both.

image

The “Ours” is from O’Donnell et al.  See the darkening in the graphic from Steig?  Notice how that isn’t there in O’Donnell?  Well, the nutters are trying to put it back.

Just off the presses!

Byrd Station Temperature Data Shows Warming On West Antarctic Ice Sheet

That’s from a hyperbole filled article quoting a new paper published in Nature Geoscience. 

Central West Antarctica among the most rapidly warming regions on Earth

From all of this we get the hyperbole that we’re all going to drown because of the melting which is(?) occurring.

“Even without generating significant mass loss directly, surface melting on the WAIS could contribute to sea level indirectly, by weakening the West Antarctic ice shelves that restrain the region’s natural ice flow into the ocean.” said David Bromwich, professor of geography at Ohio State University and senior research scientist at the Byrd Polar Research Center.

Andrew Monaghan, study co-author and scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), said that these findings place West Antarctica among the fastest-warming regions on Earth. “We’ve already seen enhanced surface melting contribute to the breakup of the Antarctic’s Larsen B Ice Shelf, where glaciers at the edge discharged massive sections of ice into the ocean that contributed to sea level rise. The stakes would be much higher if a similar event occurred to an ice shelf restraining one of the enormous WAIS glaciers.”

Glaciers moving, and glacial calving is not melt.  Dolts.  They continue with their idiocy….

Researchers consider the WAIS especially sensitive to climate change since the base of the ice sheet rests below sea level, it is vulnerable to direct contact with warm ocean water. Its melting currently contributes 0.3 mm to sea level rise each year—second to Greenland, whose contribution to sea level rise has been estimated as high as 0.7 mm per year.

Now, all of this hysteria comes from extrapolated data from one research station.  One.  Well, sort of.  Here’s the new map of the Antarctic and it’s temp anomaly.

image

The infamous Byrd research station.

At this point, knowledgeable people should just point and laugh at these lunatics.  But, I’ll go into just a little bit more detail.  First of all, one?  One location for temp readings and from that we get 0.3mm/yr rise in the sea level?  BS.  That’s beyond stupid.  Annoyed

What else can we point out about this lunacy?  Oh, yeh, the Byrd research station data isn’t really from just one place.  Nor, is it from one thermometer.  The station has been moved, closed, and reestablished several times throughout it’s history.  From the Wiki page…

It was commissioned on January 1, 1957. The original station (“Old Byrd”) lasted about four years before it began to collapse under the snow. Construction of a second underground station in a nearby location began in 1960, and it was used until 1972. The station was then converted into a summer-only field camp until it was abandoned in 2004-05.[1]

That’s fascinating.  They’re using different thermometers, (there are several types which have their own individual issues, each one)  from different locations, with several breaks in time and conflating them into one continuous temp record.  Does anyone believe this can be done to any accuracy?  Going back to the O’Donnell row.  Let’s have a look at the raw temp record from Byrd, and a couple of the locations.  You can find this here and several other places.  image

To quote Ryan O’Donnell,

Pay close attention to the post-2000 timeframe.  Notice how the winter months are absent?  Now what do we suppose might happen if we fit a trend line to this data?  One might go so far as to say that the conclusion is foregone.

So . . . would Eric Steig really do this?

Trend check on the above plot:  0.38 Deg C / decade.

……..However, we’ve yet to address the fact that the pre-1980 data comes from an entirely different sensor than the post-1980 data.

At any rate, read Steig’s Trick to for more of the same destruction of the temp record from Byrd.

Lastly, there’s one other thing to note.  Look back up at the raw temp record graphic.  As noted, these are summer readings at the end of the record.  How much melting actually occurs at temps colder than -10 deg C ??  Imbeciles, the lot of them.  Annoyed

The temps recorded at the Byrd stations has contributed 0.0mm/yr melt increase of the mean sea level.

This should be fun for a bunch of skeptics who haven’t had much to do lately.  Enjoy guys and gals.  Smile

For those not barred from discussing things on HuffPo, you can torture alarmists here.

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22 Responses to Early Christmas Gift From The Warmista!!! Blast From The Past!!! WAIS Again!!!

  1. DirkH says:

    Well I guess they want to save their polar amplification hypothesis, so they must find ways to show that Antarctica is warming rapidly, so they made up this story with the broken sensor that they carefully recalibrated by comparing it to a computational atmospheric model, vulgo climate model, vulgo junk.

    So the construction of epicycles continues… climate science institutes are madhouses. The delusion of the public continues; it must; hundreds of billions of Euros/Dollars a year stand to be looted.

    Much too profitable to lose it.

  2. DirkH says:

    Explosion of EU research budget:
    http://scienceblogs.de/weitergen/2012/10/petition-zur-sicherung-des-eu-forschungsbudgets-unterschreiben/
    See also here, two thirds down the page.
    http://ec.europa.eu/ireland/key-eu-policy-areas/research/index_en.htm

    Also growth in percent of GDP for the US, but less dramatic, sorry, no good graph for now.

    More and more loot, and that doesn’t count the “climate related” activities of other government institutions… Where there’s more loot there will be more looters. Science has become the convenient way of plundering the public. No accountability.

  3. Bruce of Newcastle says:

    I can add why the Antarctic Peninsula should show up hotter in O’Donnell.

    It sticks out into the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans which both hit their 60 year cyclic highs. Poke a long tongue of land out into a warmer ocean and what do you get?

    There is no such climate justification for the Byrd temperature station, unless… Hmm,geology is another thing entirely. Is that steam I see rising from under your huts guys?

    • DirkH says:

      I guess you can be pretty sure that if these guys were to find a volcano they’d botch it. 100% bogus warming, my take. Doesn’t matter anyway – it doesn’t take much to warm something from -50 to -45; not much IR radiated away. Probably their grandiose average warming happens through an increase of the lowest temperatures, didn’t check.

      And while the warmists go on and on about temperature, this totally ignores the energy (which varies nonlinearly with temperature, especially due to the different enthalpy of frozen and liquid water). In winter, temperatures hover around the freezing point of water forever for this reason; in spring they then jump up easily to 20 deg C.

      And that destroys the statistical validity of any mean temperature, global or otherwise:
      http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2012/12/10/do-temperatures-have-a-mean/

    • Lars P. says:

      Not sure how confident are the authors of their results, seems a lot of guessing to me – see how the record was obtained – here the description from NY Times:
      ” To try to get to the bottom of the question, David H. Bromwich of Ohio State University pulled together a team that focused on a single temperature record. At a lonely outpost called Byrd Station, in central West Antarctica, people and automated equipment have been keeping track of temperature and other weather variables since the late 1950s.

      It is by far the longest weather record in that region, but it had intermittent gaps and other problems that had made many researchers wary of it. The Bromwich group decided to try to salvage the Byrd record.

      They retrieved one of the sensors and recalibrated it at the University of Wisconsin. They discovered a software error that had introduced mistakes into the record and then used computerized analyses of the atmosphere to fill the gaps. ”

      so part of it is coming from modelling “used computerized analyses of the atmosphere to fill the gaps.” (NY Times) which I would take with a pinch of salt. Then in another part we are told:
      “Much of the warming discovered in the new paper happened in the 1980s,” – exactly what was highlighted at climate audit at the time…

  4. Me says:

    Merry Christmas everyone.

  5. Jim Masterson says:

    There’s a Science mag paper published in 2003 (http://www.sciencemag.org/content/299/5603/99.abstract) that discusses temperature response of the WAIS.

    After wading through a couple of paragraphs devoted to the global warming hype, you find out that the WAIS response to global temperature changes is delayed by about 7,000 to 10,000 years. Even if we could lower temperatures to some ideal required by the warm mongers, the WAIS wouldn’t respond for thousands of years.

    If we’re doomed now, then we’re doomed. Better start eating and drinking now–the warm mongers are trying to outlaw merry.

    Jim

  6. Jim Masterson says:

    This nut (http://joannenova.com.au/2012/12/death-threats-anyone-austrian-prof-global-warming-deniers-should-be-sentenced-to-death/) opposes the death penalty for mass murderers, but GW deniers are the exception. We’ve gone too far in his opinion and must be executed for killing billions of future persons (he’s being conservative in his estimate).

    Jim

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