Yeh, But If It Was …….. Then We All Be In Trouble!!

 

The title says it all.  This has been the state of climate science for the last 25 years.  The science is nothing more than a worst case scenario extrapolated and then touted as truth, when in fact, such dire sequences of events necessary for these scenarios are highly improbable.  They don’t use much empirical data other than to train woefully inadequate models.  Can anyone point to one single piece of climate science literature where the prognostications derived from these computer games ever came up with something useful?

Take this recent example.  An article in Terra Daily covering a study recently done……

Melting Sea Ice Threatens Emperor Penguins

“If global temperatures continue to rise, however, the Emperor penguins in Terre Adelie, in East Antarctica may eventually disappear, according to a new study by led by researchers from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI).

“Over the last century, we have already observed the disappearance of the Dion Islets penguin colony, close to the West Antarctic Peninsula,” says Stephanie Jenouvrier, WHOI biologist and lead author of the new study.

“In 1948 and the 1970s, scientists recorded more than 150 breeding pairs there. By 1999, the population was down to just 20 pairs, and in 2009, it had vanished entirely.” Like in Terre Adelie, Jenouvrier thinks the decline of those penguins might be connected to a simultaneous decline in Antarctic sea ice due to warming temperatures in the region.

So far, this could be a reasonable cause for study.  But, determining how to advance from this thought is where we see the differences between what has become known climate science and skepticism.  For most of us, the next consideration would be, “are my assumptions true?”  Now, sometimes, this would be such a complicated question an entire study would be warranted simply to answer the question or even identify the question.  In this case, the questions are easily identified.  We already know the population has vanished.  We’re looking to rule out causation.  In this case the questions which need to be answered before progressing are as follows;  Did the temperatures rise in that region?  And did the ice decline?

Of course, this seems to be straight forward questions, but it isn’t all that easy to specifically determine.  Well, it wouldn’t be to entirely oblivious people not paying attention regarding temps of Antarctic.  Most veterans of the climate wars will recall the Antarctic battle royale bloggers vs cli-sci team, otherwise known as O’Donnell et al 2010 Refutes Steig et al 2009

Gosh those were good times!  Of course, with this more current map of temp trends, we can see part of the assumption may be true.  It could be that the unfortunate population of penguins had rising temps which caused all the ice to melt.  But, as we look at the rest of the map, it would be highly questionable that the same fate for the same reasons would befall the eastern population.  As we can see, apart from the peninsula, there’s been very little warming in the Antarctic.  More, to experience any melt, the increase would have to greatly increase.  But, let’s look at the general ice conditions in the Antarctic.

 

Oh, it isn’t melting.  Can anyone give me a compelling reason why we should worry about something that isn’t happening and hasn’t been happening?  Is there any indication that sudden and precipitous warming will occur in this region?

From the abstract, “….We present a population projection for the emperor penguin population of Terre Adelie, Antarctica, by linking demographic models (stage-structured, seasonal, nonlinear, two-sex matrix population models) to sea ice forecasts from an ensemble of IPCC climate models.

….Uncertainty is included by incorporating multiple climate models and by a parametric bootstrap procedure that includes parameter uncertainty due to both model selection and estimation error. The median of these simulations predicts a decline of the Terre Adelie emperor penguin population of 81% by the year 2100. We find a 43% chance of an even greater decline, of 90% or more. The uncertainty in population projections reflects large differences among climate models in their forecasts of future sea ice conditions……..

Now we compare this to the drivel in the press release above.  While the unsuspecting reader might come to the conclusion that it is a deep concern that 1. the temps in the eastern Antarctic are rising with global temps, and this rise is causing melting of the ice and if all of this continues, we’ll lose another population of emperor penguins.  But, in reality, the paper was nothing more than a fantastic game of “what if” played with computer programs which no more reflect reality than the man on the moon does. 

Models, those are the things which led people to believe the Antarctic was melting in the first place.  But, we see when we use empirical data,

According to a statement from the American Geophysical Union, announcing the new research:

It turns out that past studies, which were based on computer models without any direct data for comparison or guidance, overestimate the water temperatures and extent of melting beneath the Fimbul Ice Shelf. This has led to the misconception, Hattermann said, that the ice shelf is losing mass at a faster rate than it is gaining mass, leading to an overall loss of mass.

The team’s results show that water temperatures are far lower than computer models predicted …

If one does a Bing search using words such as these…. “Emperor Antarctic temp ice” one will get pages and pages of the mindless study of “what if the sky falls”, even when there’s no reason to believe any of this would ever happen.  And, lastly, I’d like to say, Julienne, stop that!  You’re too smart for this stuff!  Come over to the light side!  There’s still time.