Last Day Before Election!!!! Maps, Polls And Prediction!!!!!

image

Well, election day is finally at hand.  People are making all sorts of predictions based on a plethora of polling data.  I thought I’d jot a few helpful notes to help people navigate tomorrow’s news.

As most of us know, to become POTUS, one must gain 270 electoral votes, else, the vote goes to the House of Representatives.  There is a possibility that happens tomorrow, but, a slim possibility.

The above map is from Fox News and what their polling data is saying about each state.  The red is predicted to go to Trump, the blue for Clinton, and the grey/black are what they’re calling “toss-ups”, or too close to call.  It has Clinton getting 205 electoral votes to Trump’s 158 with 175 still up in the air.  But, the map isn’t anywhere close to being correct.  Let me fix it for all of us. ……..

Georgia has consistently polled for Trump over the last several weeks, as has Ohio.  Iowa seems nailed down for Trump as does Arizona and Utah.  Also, New Hampshire is in play, as is the 2nd congressional district of Maine.  Wisconsin isn’t really in play.  It should be, but, it’s not.  New Mexico should be, but, it isn’t either.  So, let’s now look at the map as I’ve described it…….

image

I don’t believe there’s much to disagree with on this map, given the recent spate of polling data.  Now, if you look at the top bar of this map, you’ll see an entirely different race!  It’s neck and neck!  …….. sort of.

Sure, this is a huge headache for Hillary, but, the map is problematic for Trump.  Sure, PA and Michigan are 36 collective electoral votes, but, what are the odds that he gains them but, loses Florida and North Carolina?  Slim to none, I’d say.  From this map, Trump needs 55 more electoral votes.  First and foremost, as has been the case for the last several elections, if a Repub is to win, they absolutely must have Florida.  If you’re watching tomorrow and you see that Florida went with Clinton, turn off your TV, shut down your PC, go get the mind-numbing substance of your choice, and contemplate the words “Madame President”, because it would be over at that point.  And, while there would still be a slim viable path if Trump loses North Carolina, it’s not realistic.  He pretty much needs NC, almost as much as he needs Florida. 

Now, don’t get me wrong, I’m not spreading doom and gloom, I’m just saying this is what Trump needs to win, and even if he gets NC and Florida, it’s still not over.  And, there is good news on these fronts.  Nate Silver (a lefty sort of numbers guy) and his project 538 puts the odds of Trump winning Florida at 53.3%.  He updates his numbers daily.  He also has the odds of Trump winning NC at 53%, but, then, he also has Hillary winning the general at 63.6% odds. 

OTOH, if you hear that Trump picked up Pennsylvania, and also hear Trump won Florida, assume it’s over for Hillary.

In all the states in question, the biggest question is turn-out.  No one seems to know which direction it’s heading.  I’m told Hillary has the better organized ground game to get the voter turn-out, which has always been the case for the Dims and their legally questionable tactics.  But, it is unquestionable that Trump supporters are much more enthusiastic. 

Then, also, there is the dynamic of closet Trumpers, people who secretly support Trump, but, won’t say so.  No one knows how many of them are out there.  So, I could be entirely off-base in cases such as Wisconsin, and New Mexico.  But, I don’t think so.  I’ll have more on both of those states after the election. 

Lastly, just for fun, this is how I’m predicting the map to end ……..

image 

Can I get some odds on this one?  It is, btw, not unrealistic. 

Special Note!!!!!!  There’s some Dim electoral in Washington state, who says regardless of the outcome (Washington state will vote for Hillary), he’s not going to cast his vote for Hillary.  (this was linked by a commentator here)  Another says he doesn’t know what he’ll do. 

That’s what I got, what do you think?

This entry was posted in News and politics. Bookmark the permalink.

26 Responses to Last Day Before Election!!!! Maps, Polls And Prediction!!!!!

  1. Scott says:

    Everyone here just seems to assume that we (CO) will go blue, no argument. They’re probably right, but the signs and bumper stickers just don’t seem to indicate it. It all comes down to the Latin America import population if you ask me.

    My guess is that Hillary wins nationally by 30-40 EC votes.

    -Scott

    • Latitude says:

      Scott…republicans had a bigger turn out than democrats
      Problem is…they can’t actually count the vote…and that leaves the independents/unaffiliated
      …there are no liberal independents…and they are about 1/3 of your vote

  2. philjourdan says:

    I voted – but in my mixed polling place, where the line was out the door in 08 and 12, it was not this morning. Translation – Turnout is lower and this was an Obama state. Read into it what you want.

    • Scott says:

      The big push I’ve seen from the Hillary side in the last week has been that she’s a bad candidate but it’ll be our generation’s fault if we’re “stuck” with Trump. So vote for her even though Bernie would be better!

      Ha,

      -Scott

    • cdquarles says:

      I have voted as well. Turnout appears to be average to maybe a bit above average. Once I saw the official ballot, I realized why I’d not seen many signs nor heard many ads this time. There was no reason to spend the time, money, and effort. What did surprise me was the number of ballot measures. There are usually a few. There were 13 or 14 this time!

    • Latitude says:

      I just got back from voting too….wore my “stay calm and think deplorable” T-shirt

      Our voting always tends to be a social event…very few of us here…so people hang around for a while and visit and catch up with each other.
      We’re not very political, in the sense that we don’t really take sides with each other

      …no one was there, no one hanging out side…..for us that’s unheard of

      • leftinflagstaff says:

        Mailed in my deplorableness about a week ago. Dunno how much that could be a factor in widespread attendance. No idea if it’s dependable or less so, at this point.

  3. Latitude says:

    The above map is from Fox News and what their polling data is saying…

    Fox lost over half of their conservative viewers…and the other half won’t play in their polls

  4. Latitude says:

    Well finally someone did a poll on this….and exactly what I’ve been saying

    I know for a fact it’s true for South Florida….immigrants that are here want to slam the door shut.
    Mainly because as it gone on, and more people are coming in….they are getting more and more trashy, dangerous…and not the class of people that started coming. The immigrants that are here do not want to have anything to do with the new ones…and can’t blame them….these new people are flat out dangerous..they have no respect for the law, have no concept of personal property, and are here to clean us all out and go

    Voto secreto Trump? Most Hispanics back deportation, want immigration cap cut in half

    The Pulse Opinion Research survey found that 51 percent of Hispanics believe that there has been “too little” done to enforce immigration laws. What’s more, by a margin of 49 percent to 36 percent, Hispanics “support a policy causing illegal immigrants to return home by enforcing the law.”

    http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/voto-secreto-trump-most-hispanics-back-deportation-want-immigration-cap-cut-in-half/article/2606769

  5. Lars P. says:

    OK, absolutely not on topic on such a hot day, but as this was once a climate blog, I found a good conversation at NTZ about the CO2 doubling and the +3.7 W/m2 hypothesis here:

    http://notrickszone.com/2016/10/21/japanese-scientist-explains-trick-behind-3-7-watts-per-square-meter-forcing-at-the-tropopause/

    I just post it for later reference, if somebody is interested to look through when time allows…

    • Latitude says:

      saved it….read it after dinner!!

    • cdquarles says:

      I think they’re all wet :p. Water vapor concentration is a function of temperature and pressure since, by definition, condensation is possible for any gas below its critical point. Water vapor that doesn’t condense out does *not* stay near the ground. The condensed aerosol may or may not stay near the ground, but the gas part moves in three dimensions from high concentration to low concentration. Bulk flows induced by local pressure and temperature changes alter the three dimensional diffusion.

      By the kinetic theory of gases, the thermodynamic temperature follows from the geometric mean of the velocity of the particles. In a mixture of gases, the ‘light’ ones move faster than the “heavy” ones. The total kinetic energy remains the same regardless (follows from PV = nRT, suitably modified for actual conditions). Since the open atmosphere isn’t a fixed container, faster moving gases must result in a theoretical lower density in an imagined fixed volume than slower moving gases (that’s why moist air is less dense … the additional water monomers move faster than the oxygen or nitrogen or argon, and etc.; but, water isn’t necessarily in vapor form monomer only). IR active gases *must* reduce the lapse rate relative to that of gases that are not IR active and they screen out the incoming IR, keeping that portion of the flux from reaching the ground if the atmosphere is functionally opaque to a specified narrow frequency band. That’s why the theory predicts a tropospheric hot spot. That follows from moving away from the dry standard atmosphere lapse rate toward the moist one, moist air being more opaque to IR. I’ve seen some posit that lowering the lapse rate mandates that the surface temperature increase. It doesn’t. The surface conditions and the atmospheric composition determine the temperature at altitude. But, but, but, a moist day is a warmer day, right? Maybe. It doesn’t have to be. Don’t forget bulk flows due to differential pressure.

      Now consider the concept of density altitude. Lapse rate, strictly speaking is the change in temperature profile of the column of air as one moves away from the surface. Conflating that “agl” definition with “amsl” may cause your airplane to not be able to safely takeoff.

      Changing the concentration of carbon dioxide *may* or *may not* alter the lapse rate. I rather doubt it, given that there’s more water at the surface and in the air than carbon dioxide. That reminds me, has anyone measured the open atmosphere scrubbing effect of clouds?

  6. Latitude says:

    wanted to be sure you guys saw this……some people still have a sense of humor!!

    http://www.breitbart.com/video/2016/11/08/watch-black-voter-flashes-make-america-great-hat-voting-msnbc-broadcast/

  7. Latitude says:

    strange….voting machines all over the country need to be “calibrated” to not change republican to democrat…
    machines in Louisiana had democrat votes on them….before their polls were open and anyone had used the machines

    All the machines in Colorado went out at the same time…even though we were told machines are not hooked up that way, and each precinct works separate….so hacking them is not possible

    …and people sit back and let this happen…and are not screaming their heads off

  8. Latitude says:

    THANK GOD FOR THE PANHANDLE.!!!!!!

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s