Well, election day is finally at hand. People are making all sorts of predictions based on a plethora of polling data. I thought I’d jot a few helpful notes to help people navigate tomorrow’s news.
As most of us know, to become POTUS, one must gain 270 electoral votes, else, the vote goes to the House of Representatives. There is a possibility that happens tomorrow, but, a slim possibility.
The above map is from Fox News and what their polling data is saying about each state. The red is predicted to go to Trump, the blue for Clinton, and the grey/black are what they’re calling “toss-ups”, or too close to call. It has Clinton getting 205 electoral votes to Trump’s 158 with 175 still up in the air. But, the map isn’t anywhere close to being correct. Let me fix it for all of us. ……..
Georgia has consistently polled for Trump over the last several weeks, as has Ohio. Iowa seems nailed down for Trump as does Arizona and Utah. Also, New Hampshire is in play, as is the 2nd congressional district of Maine. Wisconsin isn’t really in play. It should be, but, it’s not. New Mexico should be, but, it isn’t either. So, let’s now look at the map as I’ve described it…….
I don’t believe there’s much to disagree with on this map, given the recent spate of polling data. Now, if you look at the top bar of this map, you’ll see an entirely different race! It’s neck and neck! …….. sort of.
Sure, this is a huge headache for Hillary, but, the map is problematic for Trump. Sure, PA and Michigan are 36 collective electoral votes, but, what are the odds that he gains them but, loses Florida and North Carolina? Slim to none, I’d say. From this map, Trump needs 55 more electoral votes. First and foremost, as has been the case for the last several elections, if a Repub is to win, they absolutely must have Florida. If you’re watching tomorrow and you see that Florida went with Clinton, turn off your TV, shut down your PC, go get the mind-numbing substance of your choice, and contemplate the words “Madame President”, because it would be over at that point. And, while there would still be a slim viable path if Trump loses North Carolina, it’s not realistic. He pretty much needs NC, almost as much as he needs Florida.
Now, don’t get me wrong, I’m not spreading doom and gloom, I’m just saying this is what Trump needs to win, and even if he gets NC and Florida, it’s still not over. And, there is good news on these fronts. Nate Silver (a lefty sort of numbers guy) and his project 538 puts the odds of Trump winning Florida at 53.3%. He updates his numbers daily. He also has the odds of Trump winning NC at 53%, but, then, he also has Hillary winning the general at 63.6% odds.
OTOH, if you hear that Trump picked up Pennsylvania, and also hear Trump won Florida, assume it’s over for Hillary.
In all the states in question, the biggest question is turn-out. No one seems to know which direction it’s heading. I’m told Hillary has the better organized ground game to get the voter turn-out, which has always been the case for the Dims and their legally questionable tactics. But, it is unquestionable that Trump supporters are much more enthusiastic.
Then, also, there is the dynamic of closet Trumpers, people who secretly support Trump, but, won’t say so. No one knows how many of them are out there. So, I could be entirely off-base in cases such as Wisconsin, and New Mexico. But, I don’t think so. I’ll have more on both of those states after the election.
Lastly, just for fun, this is how I’m predicting the map to end ……..
Can I get some odds on this one? It is, btw, not unrealistic.
Special Note!!!!!! There’s some Dim electoral in Washington state, who says regardless of the outcome (Washington state will vote for Hillary), he’s not going to cast his vote for Hillary. (this was linked by a commentator here) Another says he doesn’t know what he’ll do.
That’s what I got, what do you think?