My head is spinning from trying to keep up with the revelations of Clintons email scandal, and the Wikileaks and whatnot. It’s now revealed that our Secret Service knew about her home-brew server, as well as the POTUS. No one knew about it, except everyone in our government knew about it, and then, of course, lied about knowing about it. Bunch of lying scumbags!
But, is that moving the polls? Yes. It absolutely has, but, not as much as one would hope. But, then, I don’t believe there’s been a good poll which started after all of this has been exposed. What matters, though, is how the people of the individual states react to the news. Prior to all of this, Trump dug himself a pretty big hole. As I stated in an earlier post, I’m using several different sources to watch how each state (ones that matter) is moving. Each one varies from the other. For some good maps for comparisons, you can go here, here, here, and finally here. The fellow running the 3rd site mentioned, the 538 site, did the best job of predicting the last presidential election. Each site uses different methodology to get their maps. I’ll show you the current Fox map, because it’s interactive and fun to play with! Here’s what it looks like, today.
Just to make sure everyone is up to speed in reading the map. Each state is abbreviated. The number underneath each state is the electoral votes each state has. Red is Trump, blue is Clinton, and the grey is what Fox is calling a toss-up. Now, some of this is just silly. Things may change tomorrow, but, a few of these states are not “toss-ups”. Georgia, for instance; all of the polls have pretty consistently shown Trump in the lead. The same can be said for Michigan and Clinton. I’m not saying Trump can’t win Michigan, but, I’m saying if the election was tomorrow, he’ll lose Michigan. Same with Clinton and Georgia. I believe Trump is going to take Arizona, and Iowa, as well. Again, things may change tomorrow, but, as of today, this is how I’m reading things.
This brings me to my LOL, and advice/plead to Trump. If you look at this map, in the lower right of the screen you’ll see two blue boxes, with the letters ME next to them. The “ME” is the abbreviation for the state of Maine. Maine is one of two states in the Union that isn’t “winner take all”. (Nebraska is the other.) They actually do it like it is suppose to be done. They let their congressional districts vote and count that delegate towards how each district voted, rather than the majority of votes within the state.
So, why is that important? And, how is this relevant to this election? Let me show you a very plausible outcome, using the Fox map ……..
Now, I’m not saying this is probable, it is, simply, very plausible. Here’s another plausible LOL!!!! There’s some nutjob “Never Trumper” in Utah campaigning. He’s actually ahead of Hillary, and just barely behind Trump. Let’s say he takes Utah ……
You see, Clinton still needs one more electoral vote!!!!! You need 270 electoral votes to be Prez!
This is my advice to Trump. Go get that one, lonely electoral vote. Currently, it is said to be a dead heat in that congressional district. If Trump were to just fly there, talk about something that concerns the 2nd congressional district of Maine (on the federal level) and tell them he cares about them …. blah, blah, blah …… he’ll win the district!
Oh, yeh, so what happens if no one gets 270 electoral votes? It goes to the House of Representatives! Now, mind you, it isn’t each congressman gets a vote, it is by state, each state getting one vote. I haven’t broken down the congressional contingency of each state. But, only going by what state is typically Repub vs Dim, I have it 28-22 Repubs. Again, I haven’t broken them down, and you might have a never Trumper who could swing a state vote, but, the advantage would clearly be Trump in such a case.
In case anyone is wondering, my map, as I see it today …….
Mind you, this isn’t a prediction. This is just how I think it would go if the election were held today. My view will change over the course this next week. I can’t get a sense of NV, CO, or the 2nd congressional district of Maine.