Keeping with my GOP presidential nomination obsession, (Some obsessions are good to have!) I thought I’d jot a few notes about what’s going on tonight.
Tonight is the New York primaries, for both the Repubs and the Dims.
The Dim side is boring. I think Hillary will take it ….. I mean through the popular vote statewide and in most districts, but, it won’t matter much because they have a lot of super-delegates, so, even if she loses, she’ll win. Besides, it doesn’t matter which wins the Dim nomination, both will evoke nausea thinking that so many Americans actually voted for either. It’s like the Dims intentionally picked the two people most likely to elicit a recoil/gag reflex from normal Americans.
The interest should be focused on the GOP nomination.
Tonight, it isn’t a question of if Trump wins, but, by how much. He’s taken a drubbing over the last few states. I understand he shook up his campaign. He hired a couple of long-time GOP operatives (read “establishment) people to finish the deal. We’ll see how that works out. I’m not too sure. Conventional wisdom warns us against changing horses in mid-stream. Sure, his team let Cruz close the gap by quite a bit, but, ….. well, Wyoming for instance ….. Trump doesn’t resonate with the people there. Trump doesn’t do well in the Plains states and the Western Plains. So, I don’t know what the expectations were. That said, him being shut out in Wyoming does indicate a weakness in the staff he had overseeing the effort (non-effort). Colorado also demonstrated the same weakness. So, perhaps it was time to change. Perhaps it’s too late. We’ll just have to wait and see.
But, again, tonight the question is by how much does Trump win.
For people wondering …… NY’s GOP system of awarding delegates is sort of proportional …. sort of. If a candidate gets over 50%, then the candidate gets all of the delegates ….. by district. They do award 14 delegates by the statewide vote. And, it too, is proportional, unless someone gets over 50%, then all 14 go to the candidate. As to the various districts …… it’s the one with the most gets 2 delegates and the second place candidate gets one. All total, there are 95 delegates up for grabs in the GOP NY race.
Now this may seem unfair to people, but, it is what it is ……
For Trump to be seen as being successful in NY, he’s going to have to get over 50% of the state vote. He’s also going to have to succeed in most of the voting districts. In other words, even if the Donald gets ….. say ….. 50 delegates, and Kasich and Cruz split the rest, it will be deemed as an embarrassment for Trump.
Here’s what team Cruz’ and team Kasich’s strategy has been in NY, as far as I can determine ……. they are focusing on particular voting districts where they can do well, rather than trying to win over the state. The outcomes of each district will answer a particular question I’ve had. …….. The smart way for both team Cruz and team Kasich would be to collaborate. Kasich and Cruz are pretty much at the opposite ends of the spectrum for the GOP. Kasich could resonate pretty well in a lot of places in NY, but, those places Cruz probably can’t. And, the reverse is also true to a smaller extent. If they were able to collaborate, then, they should have focused on separate districts and not compete with each other, thus lowering Trump’s margin of victory and saving precious resources. Did they? We’ll see.
From what I can tell, team Cruz is doing something I think is pretty clever. Rumor has it they’re going to hardened left districts. You see, you don’t have to win over the leftists, you just have to win over the very few GOP people in said districts. In New York’s primary, each district has the equal amount of delegates awarded. So, let’s say Harlem makes up nearly one voting district. Then all you have to do to get the 3 delegates from Harlem is to convince the 3 remaining Repubs to vote for you. Forget about Statin Island, which will overwhelming go to Trump….. there are thousands of Trump-type GOPers there. Win the Repubs in Harlem! Take them to diner and win 3 delegates!
On the other hand, if Trump is able to win big in NY, and get ….. say ….. over 70 of the delegates, it will be seen as a huge win for Trump, and will make his magic number quite a bit more manageable. But, while we’re here talking about magic numbers, let me make this prediction …… Trump isn’t going to make it, it’s going to be a contested convention. I think tonight will go a long way towards my confidence in the prediction. If he wins big, as I described, I’ll probably rethink my prediction. We’ve other large contests ahead, the biggest being Cali, but, before Cali, much of what will happen will be predicated on what happens tonight.