Tonight, New York!!!! New York!!!!

Keeping with my GOP presidential nomination obsession, (Some obsessions are good to have!) I thought I’d jot a few notes about what’s going on tonight.

Tonight is the New York primaries, for both the Repubs and the Dims. 

The Dim side is boring.  I think Hillary will take it ….. I mean through the popular vote statewide and in most districts, but, it won’t matter much because they have a lot of super-delegates, so, even if she loses, she’ll win.  Besides, it doesn’t matter which wins the Dim nomination, both will evoke nausea thinking that so many Americans actually voted for either.  It’s like the Dims intentionally picked the two people most likely to elicit a recoil/gag reflex from normal Americans.  

The interest should be focused on the GOP nomination. 

image

Tonight, it isn’t a question of if Trump wins, but, by how much.  He’s taken a drubbing over the last few states.  I understand he shook up his campaign.  He hired a couple of long-time GOP operatives (read “establishment) people to finish the deal.  We’ll see how that works out.  I’m not too sure.  Conventional wisdom warns us against changing horses in mid-stream.  Sure, his team let Cruz close the gap by quite a bit, but, ….. well, Wyoming for instance ….. Trump doesn’t resonate with the people there.  Trump doesn’t do well in the Plains states and the Western Plains.  So, I don’t know what the expectations were.  That said, him being shut out in Wyoming does indicate a weakness in the staff he had overseeing the effort (non-effort).  Colorado also demonstrated the same weakness.  So, perhaps it was time to change.  Perhaps it’s too late.  We’ll just have to wait and see. 

But, again, tonight the question is by how much does Trump win. 

For people wondering …… NY’s GOP system of awarding delegates is sort of proportional …. sort of.  If a candidate gets over 50%, then the candidate gets all of the delegates ….. by district.  They do award 14 delegates by the statewide vote.  And, it too, is proportional, unless someone gets over 50%, then all 14 go to the candidate.  As to the various districts …… it’s the one with the most gets 2 delegates and the second place candidate gets one.  All total, there are 95 delegates up for grabs in the GOP NY race. 

Now this may seem unfair to people, but, it is what it is ……

For Trump to be seen as being successful in NY, he’s going to have to get over 50% of the state vote.  He’s also going to have to succeed in most of the voting districts.  In other words, even if the Donald gets ….. say ….. 50 delegates, and Kasich and Cruz split the rest, it will be deemed as an embarrassment for Trump. 

Here’s what team Cruz’ and team Kasich’s strategy has been in NY, as far as I can determine ……. they are focusing on particular voting districts where they can do well, rather than trying to win over the state.  The outcomes of each district will answer a particular question I’ve had.  ……..  The smart way for both team Cruz and team Kasich would be to collaborate.  Kasich and Cruz are pretty much at the opposite ends of the spectrum for the GOP.  Kasich could resonate pretty well in a lot of places in NY, but, those places Cruz probably can’t.  And, the reverse is also true to a smaller extent.  If they were able to collaborate, then, they should have focused on separate districts and not compete with each other, thus lowering Trump’s margin of victory and saving precious resources.  Did they?  We’ll see. 

From what I can tell, team Cruz is doing something I think is pretty clever.  Rumor has it they’re going to hardened left districts.  You see, you don’t have to win over the leftists, you just have to win over the very few GOP people in said districts.  In New York’s primary, each district has the equal amount of delegates awarded.  So, let’s say Harlem makes up nearly one voting district.  Then all you have to do to get the 3 delegates from Harlem is to convince the 3 remaining Repubs to vote for you.  Forget about Statin Island, which will overwhelming go to Trump….. there are thousands of Trump-type GOPers there.  Win the Repubs in Harlem!  Take them to diner and win 3 delegates! 

On the other hand, if Trump is able to win big in NY, and get ….. say ….. over 70 of the delegates, it will be seen as a huge win for Trump, and will make his magic number quite a bit more manageable.  But, while we’re here talking about magic numbers, let me make this prediction …… Trump isn’t going to make it, it’s going to be a contested convention.  I think tonight will go a long way towards my confidence in the prediction.  If he wins big, as I described, I’ll probably rethink my prediction.  We’ve other large contests ahead, the biggest being Cali, but, before Cali, much of what will happen will be predicated on what happens tonight. 

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37 Responses to Tonight, New York!!!! New York!!!!

  1. A contested convention may be my version of your ‘never Trump’. If they pick one with fewer votes, or no votes, I’m going ‘never American.’.🙂. Doubling my efforts to get out of this country permanently. They’ll be no reason to stay any longer.

    • DirkH says:

      You might want to listen to Bill Holter. A goldbug / prepper. He escaped to somewhere in Latin America. After he learned Spanish good enough he recognized that if there ever were a crisis, the locals would go after the Gringos first. So he returned to Texas. He says, if there’s a crisis, he’s got the best chance of defense there.

    • suyts says:

      Leftin, by “fewer votes” what do you mean? Few delegates? Fewer of the populous? …… they won’t nominate one with fewer delegates. You have to have the majority of delegates to get the nomination. If it is the “fewer of the populous” …… well, first of all, it’s impossible to state the total of the populous votes because of the various ways the states select their delegates. Or, perhaps you meant fewer Republican votes ….. again, it’s impossible to know how many Repubs voted for which candidate because of the nature of the various states and their methods. Some hold open primaries, some don’t. Some caucus, some don’t. Some go country by county electing delegates to vote in the statewide vote …… most of the recent Cruz wins don’t record the actual amount of people who participated. For instance …… http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2016/primary-caucus/wyoming ….. I can assure you, there were more than 900 people participating in the Wyoming caucus.

      • suyts says:

        Exactly my point, Leftin …… did you note the vote tally from Wyoming, North Dakota, and Colorado? …… They’re not counted. Of the total that is counted from the open primaries are actually going to vote Dim? Further, what of the votes for other candidates? ….. say the 3 million+ who voted for Rubio? From the RCP page, from what is counted Trump has roughly 40% of the vote and that doesn’t count the 11 other candidates that people actually voted for such as Rubio and Christie. <40% doesn't constitute a mandate of any sort.

        • leftinflagstaff says:

          But still, the 40% is the majority. Everyone could have voted for anyone. Every state. This is where they now stand. And ridiculous to think WY, ND, and CO could make up the difference. The current leader got votes there too. And doubtful from here on out that anyone is going to catch that leader.

          The point is, if they choose a lesser vote getter from their own side, they guarantee ‘Mrs. President.’ And most like guarantee the Party’s extinction.

        • leftinflagstaff says:

          Seven years of caving to Obama, and given a congressional majority. And then play the ‘we’ll pick the guy’ game? Won’t fly this time.

        • suyts says:

          Well, I don’t entirely disagree, Leftin, but, there are a couple of things I’d point out. 40% isn’t a majority, it’s a larger minority, or, better stated a plurality. I don’t believe those 3 states would make up the difference, but, again, I don’t know what the vote tally means, if it means anything at all. This is a “Republican” nomination, but, many states allow non-Republicans to vote in their primaries, many of which have no intention of voting Republican in the general election.

          In many states, it won’t make a tinkers worth of difference if all the Repubs in the state turn out for Trump, he’ll still lose the state. New York is a great example. About 850,000 people voted in the Repub primary in NY. It has a population of more than 20,000,000.

          It’s true, the Repubs will probably lose if they don’t pick Trump. OTOH, the Repubs will probably lose if they do pick Trump. I know the Dims want Trump to win. That should tell us something.

          But, it goes back to what I’ve been saying for quite a while now. It’s just not going to happen. Most of the anti-Trump people will not coalesce around Trump if he wins the nomination ….. with ~40% of Repub support. This is mostly because of Trump and his supporters. While this blog is always a beacon of good discourse, most of the other places are not. It goes both ways, but, it’s too late for either side to reconcile. Trump has run a “scorched-earth” campaign. He belittles and insults his opponents, and by proxy, their supporters. The Rubio people are not going to forgive and forget. The Cruz people, if they don’t win, will not forgive and forget. ….. Oh, wait!!!! I just made up the difference!!!!

          But, that’s why we have a convention. All of the Repub supporters and voters of the failed candidates still have a voice at the convention. They get a second pick. If they voted for Christie, well, then, they get a second choice, if they voted for Rubio, they get a second choice. That’s why we elect delegates. Again, that’s something I wrote about, it’s called “primaries” because there’s a secondary.

          I did my best to warn against what we’re probably going to see. Maybe it is for the best. We need a 3rd party, maybe this is the way it happens, but, I sure didn’t want it to go like this. From here, I don’t see a way for a Repub win, not with Trump, not with Cruz, not with some idiot establishment pick. Maybe I’m wrong …… maybe something will significantly change in the future. But, I don’t see it. i don’t see how, I don’t see a way or a path.

          I note that in his NY victory speech that Trump referenced Cruz as Senator Cruz rather than “Lyin’ Ted”. It’s good to see he has different handlers, now. But, I think it’s much too late for that, now. I hope I’m wrong. I pray that I’m wrong. But, I’m not wrong.

  2. DirkH says:

    ” Take them to diner and win 3 delegates! ”

    You’re suggesting Cruz wins through bribery? That’s how Erdogan became Kalif. His party handed out donkeys to any family in the villages that would vote for him. A Turkish woman told me.

    I guess that makes Erdogan a progressive. The donkeys.

    • suyts says:

      Heh!!! Yeh, well, no. That’s not what I’m suggesting. What I was suggesting is that a candidate spend time with the people. For many people, they like the personal reassurance that the candidate actually cares. Spend time and listen to their perspective. That’s usually all it takes to win a person over. Policy takes a backseat to such interaction. …….. apparently, my suggestion isn’t what happened. Trump won big in NY. …… though I’m confused by the results. Trump apparently had the majority, not just plurality, but, majority in all but one of the 27 districts in NY. With such a showing, one would expect a total popular vote of at least 70% or better, but, Trump had 60% state wide. Oddly, in a state fairly diverse, 26 of the 27 districts had near equal/homogeneous sentiment about Trump, Cruz, and Kasich. ….. oops, 25 of the 27, now.

  3. TedG says:

    So sorry Trump takes New York.

    Make America Great Again.

  4. sth_txs says:

    Yes, Trump does well where some of us have to live with the ‘duh-versity’ imposed upon us by douche bags who live in their gated communities or white-topia states. They simply have no clue.

  5. Latitude says:

    purple rain… 😦

  6. DirkH says:

    Hilarious video. US forces try to airdrop Humvees during exercise in Germany.
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-21/caught-tape-when-humvee-paradrop-goes-terribly-wrong

  7. Latitude says:

    well ok…..let’s make everyone comfortable with their identified gender

    What if someone with male parts, identifies as female…and then doesn’t want males in the womens restroom?

    http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/04/20/target-stores-open-womens-bathrooms-changing-rooms-to-men/

  8. Me says:

    Last night Trump made a point that Cruz said that Kasich should drop out since he has no chance of winning with the 1237 deligates, So now Cruz has no chance of the same, then Cruz should drop out too.:lol: So which is it then?😆

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