Well, I wasn’t going to post today, but, today is probably the biggest day in the Republican primary …… so far. The field has winnowed to 4, …… well, 3 now, and it may be 2 before the night is over. Or, if it is a Trump sweep, perhaps it will just be Trump.
It won’t be a Trump sweep…… probably. But, I thought I’m watching, I’m here …. so why not give a rolling commentary for tonight? I’ll try to cover state by state. First up is Florida!!!!
Trump Crushes Rubio!!!!!!
As we can see, it’s over for little Marco. Yes, mathematically, it’s still possible for Rubio to win Florida. It’s just not feasible. He’d have to carry …. what? 60-70% of the remaining votes to win Florida. That’s just not going to happen. Rubio has vowed to stay on fighting and go to Wyoming. At this point, even his wife and children would be asking him, “why?” There’s no point. even the establishment have decided he’s not a viable establishment candidate. He’s not even going to take 3rd in another primary beyond tonight. Personally, I thought the smart play was to get out before tonight. He just embarrassed himself. Spent all of his political capital and will for quite some time have the political donor class weary of ever backing Rubio again. Rubio could do the world a favor and name names about who advised him to do what. But, beyond that, I can’t imagine anyone wanting to hear from him anymore.
This was a foregone conclusion. More to follow soon!
Fox Being A Bitter Clinger!!!!!!
64% of the vote in, and Trump holds a 19% point lead over Rubio and they still haven’t declared the race in Florida.
The North Carolina results are starting to come in. It’s as expected …. Trump with about 41%, Cruz about 31% and the other two just barely breaking 10%. Only 6% of the vote is in, but, I don’t expect this to change very much in North Carolina. Though, there have been occasions that Cruz made unexpected late surges in other states to either win or make them closer.
The big questions today is whether or not Kasich can take Ohio, which would only deny Trump some delegates and keep Kasich hanging on, and if Cruz can take either or both Missouri and/or Illinois. If Cruz takes both, then I’d see it as a win for Cruz. But, Kasich has to take Ohio, else it would be a loss for Cruz and a huge day for Trump. OTOH, if Trump takes both Illinois and Missouri …… well, that would be a huge blow to team Cruz.
Cruz making it tighter in NC!!!!
Only 21% is in but, Cruz is now within 5% points.
New Repub Delegate Count ….. since Florida went to Trump, he got all 99 delegates. 1,237 delegates are required to win the nomination outright.
Kasich to an early lead in Ohio!!!! Cruz tightening with Trump in North Carolina!!!!
Kasich is up by 10 in Ohio in early returns with 15% of the vote in. In North Carolina Cruz is within 4 of Trump with 27% in, which is much tighter than I thought it would be, but, I don’t know what counties have reported and what counties haven’t.
Fox Showing Their True Colors!!!!!!
LOL!!!! Now, with Ohio’s 17% in, Fox calls it for Kasich!!!!! Establishment all the way, babeeeee!!!!!!! Kasich has a 9.5 point lead on Trump with only 17% in and Fox has called it for Kasich. Compare that to Florida where they waited until there was 70% of the vote in before they called it for Trump, even when Trump was crushing Rubio by twice the margin.
Random question……. how many people stayed home to watch the play-ins for the NCAA Basketball tournament?
Trump Jumps To An Early Lead In Illinois!!!!!!
Well, it is the home of Chicago, right? Yes, it’s early, only 11% in, but, Trump is up by 9 points …… over Kasich!!! I may have misread Illinois. Meanwhile, in North Carolina, with 41% of the vote in, it’s Trump at 39.9%, and Cruz at 36.1% ……. this is much tighter than I anticipated.
Horse race in Misery!!!!!!!
With 16% in, it’s Trump over Cruz by a nose! It’s 42.2% to 39.8%! Very tight!
Fox calls Illinois and North Carolina for Trump!!!!
Well, I think they pulled the trigger a little early, but, they are the ones with the exit polling. North Carolina with 53% in is 40.2 to 36.4, Trump over Cruz. Illinois, with only 26% in is 20.8 to 13.4, Trump over Cruz. Kasich seems to have held in Ohio, with 50% of the vote in, he’s 7 points up on Trump.
Misery Too Close To Call!!!!!!
Well, it’ll be interesting to see how the various districts swing in Missouri. One can actually lose the majority of votes, but, win the majority of delegates ……. depending upon which districts are won and lost in Misery.
So far, tonight, Trump has picked up the 99 delegates in Florida, and, is project to win 27 from his North Carolina win. Cruz is projected to win 24, Kasich 7 and Rubio 4 from N.C. Kasich is going to pick up 66 from Ohio. Assuming Trump wins Illinois as projected, he’ll get at least 24 of the 69 delegates there. To be sure, he’ll get more, we just don’t know how much or how they will be split.
All in all, it’s a pretty big night for Trump. He’s projected to win 3 out of the 5 states, with another in the lurch. He won Florida, the biggest prize of the night, and regardless how the rest of the night goes, he extended his delegate count. He’s continuing to win.
The establishment media will probably declare this a big win for Kasich. Big deal, he won his home state, where he’s a sitting governor. Though, if one looks at the numbers, in a Repub primary, a sitting Repub governor didn’t get 50% of the Repub votes. It’s a win, but, not a ringing endorsement. He didn’t come close in any other of the 5 contests tonight. Oddly, he’ll still fantasize about being president as he sits in 4th place after more than half to the delegates have already been committed.
Regardless how Misery comes out, this isn’t a good night for Cruz. Sure, Cruz was expected to lose Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina, so there weren’t any great expectations to begin with, but, as a Cruz fan, one would have hoped for a solid in one state and a chance in another. As it stands, it’s a chance in one state. Sure, N.C. was closer than expected, and the delegate count there didn’t hurt anything. But, that’s little solace over the poor performance in the other states he was expect to compete in. Still, and again, it’s the delegate count which matters, so, he’s not hurt as bad as some will be sure to try to make it out as.
Rubio did exactly as expected. He lost. Rubio lost horribly. He didn’t just get his a$$ kicked in his home state, he finished 4th in every other state on the slate tonight. Apparently he was the last one to get the memo that he was done. I can’t imagine such a petty person who would subject his supporters to a night like tonight. He could have swung states and delegates to other people. Instead, he chose to lose and cause other people to lose because he was a loser. I’ve never seen the like. He’s like a petulant child. After you admonish them and warn them, the child declares that they hate you and do what you told them not to do anyway, and then become angry at you because of the consequences you warned them about.
Rubio has vowed to stay on …. for whatever reason, but, I think he’ll end it tomorrow or the next day.
Oops …… daydreamed a little too long!!! Rubio is out!!!!! As Fox puts Kasich on the top cover ….. the only guy with less delegates than Rubio.