Well, I wanted to spend more time on this post, because, it’s about concepts more than personalities. I hope people will read this with that in mind.
One of the things which drive me absolutely batty is acts of stupidity. I use it as a guide to help chose the people to support, or rather, not support.
Now, I’ve made it clear as to who I support in the Repub race, and who I do not support. But, that’s not what this post is about. It’s about floors and ceilings.
“Floors and ceilings” may be a term people who play fantasy football would be familiar with. For instance, a running back, who is impressive but, shares time in the backfield with another running back has a lower ceiling than a similar running back who does not share time with another running back. That is to say, the running back who does not share time has more potential to make more yards and score more points than the other. The running back who shares time has a limited amount of times he can touch the ball, thus, limits his potential. Alternately, some teams tend to go away from the run and pass a lot. Or, visa/versa. If there’s a running back who is used as a receiver, but, not much to actually run the ball, well, he has a low floor, meaning he may do well, or, he may simply not do anything at all.
The concept is similar to best case/worst case scenario —— floors and ceilings. This was one of my early criticisms of Trump. It seems like every day he finds a new way to lower his ceiling. I simply don’t understand how someone believes it’s a good strategy to ostracize everyone around you.
One can go to Realclearpolitics and look at the polls. Trump, nationally has hit his ceiling. It was ~40% of the Republicans polls. In a field as large as the Republican field is, that’s not bad! That’s very good! If the field stays as large as it is, he’ll win! Of course, though, it won’t stay that large.
Now, in the world of averages, one would expect as the candidates drop out, the supporters of the failed candidates would move to the more viable candidates. But, everyone, anyone already knew it wasn’t going to be like that for Trump. He’s an “anti-establishment” candidate. Yes, he’s soaked up a lot of the Carson supporters. Carson is/was an “anti-establishment” candidate. But, how many Kasich supporters are going to move to Trump? Close to zero.
There are some Republicans who simply support Republicans. I think they are a shallow lot, but, they support Republicans past and present. Trump lost a significant number of those people simply by attacking W, as a proxy for attacking Jeb. It was, in my estimation, an unforced error. I don’t believe there’s a person in the US who wants to rehash the Iraq/WMD discussion, certainly no straightline party member. How significant is it? In a microcosm, not very. But, it did certainly lower his ceiling. For me, I thought he tried to make himself look better by attacking someone’s brother, in a effort to gain the votes of the people who voted for the brother! But, then, the Bush family is establishment Repub. So, the damage isn’t that much. Did it help? Did it sway someone to vote for him? Well, there probably were a few thousand Bernie Sanders supporters who said “Yeh!!!!!”. But, they’re not going to vote for Trump, anyway. …… Maybe, if Hillary gets it, some might in the general, but, not many.
And, then, there’s the Cruz battle.
I think at one time, many of the Cruz supporters had Trump as their second pick. Well, most did. After this week, I dare say that most will not. Not because of the ads Cruz was running, but, because of the insane responses. He lowered his ceiling, again.
Now, these have been my thoughts — about ceilings and floors for some time. As I recall I wrote another prior post about them before — for some time. Today, we have proof that what I’m laying down is correct.
(2) In the GOP primary, Donald Trump leads the pack with 35 percent support, followed by Cruz (20 percent) and Rubio (17 percent). No other candidate breaks into double-digits, with a frustrated-sounding Jeb Bush sitting below six percent support. Asked about second-place preferences, Rubio is tops at 23 percent, followed by Cruz at 19 percent. Trump comes in last on this measure, in single-digits.
He’s the last place second choice! More …..
USA Today poll:
54% of voters say they’d be “scared” or “dissatisfied” if Hillary is her party’s nominee.
56% say the same of Trump.
He’s not popular, even in the party he’s running in. More ……
NBC /WSJ 2/14-16
Cruz 56 Trump 40
Rubio 57 Trump 41
Trump 54 Bush 43
Trump 52 Kasich 44
Now, think on this for a second. Think on how this applies to a national election.
I’m not saying I don’t think Trump will win the Repub nomination. I think there’s a very good chance that he does. It’s entirely dependent upon how many stay in the race and for how long. If Bush and Kasich are still in it come April, Trump will probably win. If it’s a two man race in April, Trump will probably lose. I’ve no prognostication at this point because I can’t measure the hubris and egos of the candidates.
But, from this data, and considering Trumps ceiling, the amount of the GOP who will simply stay home if he’s nominated, it seems to me that he’s uniquely the only GOP candidate who could possibly lose to both Sanders and Clinton. Why? Because while his floor is higher than most any recent US presidential candidate, his ceiling is lower than most any recent US presidential candidate ……. much of it entirely unnecessary and stupid.