We Pause From Observing Our Societal Collapse For The Iowa Caucuses

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So, today we have the Iowa Caucuses, the first in the nation.  For those unfamiliar, this is part of the process in which the parties pick their nominee for the general election for President of the United States.  Much media and hype is committed to this caucus.

In recent history, the caucuses don’t tell us much for the Republican party nominee.  Since 1976, in elections in which an incumbent president wasn’t running, the Iowa winner went on to win the Republican nomination 2 1/2 times.  I wrote “1/2” because Romney tied Santorum in 2012.  Dole won it in 1996, and Bush Jr. in 2000.  The Dims used to be like that, but, in the recent ones, Gore, Kerry, and Obama have won Iowa and then gone on to win the Dim nomination. 

For the most part what one can read into the caucus is it tells us which candidates need to drop out.  There are exceptions this time around.

IMHO, I don’t think the Iowa caucus is the one to watch this time around, neither is the New Hampshire one.  South Carolina is the one to watch.  It does surprise me somewhat that Trump is doing so well in Iowa.  They’re more rural than most states.  It is even more surprising that Sanders is polling so close to Clinton in Iowa. 

Now, as to weeding out the irrelevant, the Dims basically have a two person race already, and Sanders isn’t getting out any time soon.  With Clinton, she’s out of time.  I believe her support has peaked.  She can only hope the time between now and the nomination doesn’t sap her support so much that she loses the nomination.  I believe it will, barring something massively stupid from Sanders ……. which is by no means a safe bet. 

On the Repub side, the object of the game is to not lose too badly ….. for most candidates.  For Christie, losing badly is a foregone conclusion, and he’s hoping for a good showing back east.  In Iowa, it would be a huge surprise is someone other than Trump, Cruz, or Rubio breaks the top 3.  And, the top 3 should be very close, in which case, all will claim victory and momentum.  Like Iowa is a write-off for Christie, it’s pretty much so in N.H. for Cruz. 

It is the South where it gets interesting for both parties, (Sanders is expected to take N.H.)  With Cruz, Rubio, Bush ……. well, now, it’s the South which will tell the tale for all three.  None of the previously mentioned can win the Repub nomination without the South.  Indeed, they all need both Florida and Texas.  South Carolina will give us some insights as to how well each can do in the South.  At this point, I think Trump has the East pretty much locked up, with Christie as the wildcard in that area, but, Christie needs to do well in N.H. to be seen as a viable candidate.  I think Jeb is done, with most of his support going to Rubio when Bush drops out. 

Those are my thoughts, anyway.  Off to get some popcorn!

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31 Responses to We Pause From Observing Our Societal Collapse For The Iowa Caucuses

  1. leftinflagstaff says:

    ‘I believe it will, barring something massively stupid from Sanders ……. which is by no means a safe bet.’

    Frightening that we continually have the most massively stupid something from Sanders, and he’s still in the hunt.

  2. Latitude says:

    barring nothing stupid, or game changing….

    My prediction….
    democrazies pick Clinton…..lose the Sanders people completely, ether they don’t vote or the ones that do vote….cross over and vote for Trump…..
    Trump and Sanders are both basically saying the same thing…Sanders wants more government to do it…..Trump seems to want to go it alone or with less government

    republicans are forced to pick Trump….which will really tell the tale….if they rally to try and keep Trump from winning….then we know we’ve been had…same dog different collar…if the republicans don’t all out sink Trump…..Trump wins president

    • Latitude says:

      oh and Trump and Cruz are neck and neck in Iowa

      • suyts says:

        Yes, they are. ….. Establishment Repubs will end up liking Trump, but, that won’t help when the base stays home.

      • suyts says:

        Well, Fox says Cruz won Iowa. The huge surprise is Clinton/Sanders. If she loses Iowa she’ll probably get indicted.

        • Latitude says:

          democrats…..either an advertising socialist…..or known criminal
          ..not good for the democrats, split vote already
          kids for Sanders do not like Hillary…a lot of them won’t cross over

          republicans….in a better position….three way split and two Cubans…this time I think republicans will come to their senses and vote for which ever candidate gets it….but democrats for Trump will not

      • Latitude says:

        exactly….both parties are in a catch 22

  3. leftinflagstaff says:

    In the end, it should be about any Repub over either Dem. Even Rubio. Illegal immigration will probably continue under any of them, in either party, anyway.

    • Latitude says:

      …but it won’t be
      Republicans start their crap and trash their own candidates…
      ..he’s not religious enough, he’s not a real conservative, he wears white socks

      Democrazies do not to that…….except for this time
      …Sanders has attracted the Occupy crowd…I don’t see them defecting over to Clinton
      who is the epidemy (play on words, not a mistake) of wall street

      …makes for a very interesting election

      • leftinflagstaff says:

        Well, yes…like I said- what it should be about. 😊

        The point is, Illegal Immigration will end up being a wash. The goal for every American election, from Obama forward, needs to focus on who’s really the least un-American. No Dem will ever again be at the top of that list.

  4. Latitude says:

    ….and in other news
    Raising interest rates is a good thing…..
    ….except when it’s not

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-02/rates-less-than-zero-is-bank-stress-fed-wants-to-test-in-2016

    • DirkH says:

      They are trying to get NIRP all over the West. Now even German govt makes noises of outlawing cash transactions over 5000 EUR. (*Significant* NIRP works only if cash is outlawed) (I’ll be looking out for alternative currencies – like stack-o-macks…)

  5. DirkH says:

    “They’re more rural than most states. It is even more surprising that Sanders is polling so close to Clinton in Iowa. ”
    Sanders’ success explained in one pic.

    As to Trump: I think at a certain point all establishment causes so much damage that losing it is such a promising perspective that the risk of an unknown force becomes neglegible.
    The USSR reached that point in 1990. The West has reached it now.

    Whether Trump or Cruz change anything is unknown (Cruz is married to a Goldman-Sachs/CFR woman so I count him as half-establishment at least. Trump is an entrenched oligarch. Yet the CFR opposes him violently via their man Murdoch, that’s gotta count for something.)

    You have nothing to lose.
    (As to Germany, of course, EVIL situation and we gotta get out of it. There’s no choice here but the AfD.)

    • DirkH says:

      That was the wrong pic. This one.

      • leftinflagstaff says:

        Our growing percentage of delusional cowards is embarrassing. In Iowa even. Cowardly in wanting, and needing, a baby-sitter. Delusional in believing that baby-sitter can really take care of them.

        Of course the young are still going suck it up, with their struggle to give up irresponsibility, but his popularity has to include a large number of those who should have reached emotional maturity.

      • Bruce of Newcastle says:

        Communists think alike…
        North Korea bombards South with used toilet paper
        Lefties expecting new phones will be surprised when they get free brown sticky stuff in the mail instead.

        • DirkH says:

          “Seoul also approved the resumption of broadcasts of pop music and propaganda via loudspeakers into the North. ”

          To be honest, NK’s Moranbong band is far better than K-pop.

        • Latitude says:

          I hope they are playing Gangnam Style on an endless loop……

    • Latitude says:

      I don’t see it as surprising…..43% of Iowa said they would call themselves socialists

      • DirkH says:

        They’d love the Moranbong band then. They play uplifting pop music with NK rocket launchers going off on the screen in the background. Funniest communist weapons demo ever.

      • leftinflagstaff says:

        Iowa. Unreal. The cancer that’s the root of our problems. In middle America.

  6. Bruce of Newcastle says:

    Did Hillary’s people say to the Sanders people when doing all those coin tosses “heads I win, tails you lose”?

    Lucky? Hillary Clinton Wins All 6 Coin Tosses In Iowa, Taking Narrow Delegate Lead

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