Turkey, Russia, And NATO

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Well, as we all know by now, Turkey shot down a Russian jet.  Where the Russian jet was at the time is disputed. 

At this moment, I really don’t have much to say about this, but, I realize some would want me to chime in (mostly readers who don’t regularly comment).  Most of the commentators have already formed a thought and are familiar with the reality of the situation.  But, many are not, so, I’ll just try to interject some reality.

First, let’s start by saying Turkey is a part of NATO.  NATO is a cold-war holdover which really serves no purpose today.  It was formed to counter the Soviet Union’s military aggression in Europe.  There is no Soviet Union today, and while many would perceive some of Russia’s initiatives as “aggression”, they have not threaten Europe proper with military or physical aggression (depending on one’s view of the roil in the Ukraine).  To my knowledge, Turkey was never seriously threatened even when there was a Soviet Union.  They joined NATO as a vehicle to gain protection from more nearby neighbors. 

Continuing with some reality, and this is probably most important to note, Turkey isn’t fighting ISIS.  Let me repeat this for emphasis ……. Turkey is not fighting ISIS!  Turkey reluctantly allows the US to fly missions against ISIS from their soil, but, Turkey isn’t fighting ISIS.  Turkey is fighting the Kurds.  The Kurds are fighting ISIS.  The US is fighting ISIS, but, only because of the huge outcry of the people of the US.  Recall the months and months of inaction and silence by president Zero in the face of the atrocities committed by ISIS.  Turkey does want Assad removed from Syria, as does president Zero.  Russia likes Assad.  Zero is upset with Putin because Russia also attacks people Zero deems as “moderate rebels”.  Which is fascinating because it’s a bit of an oxymoron.  There is no such thing as a “moderate rebel”.  I am unaware of any pro-US group fighting Assad other than the groups the US refuses to arm. 

Those are the facts.

Was the Russian jet in Turkey air-space?  Probably.  The Russians have been ignoring air-space for some time now.  Should Turkey have shot down the jet?  No, that was incredibly stupid, and a fool’s bet.  There was nothing to gain and much to lose over this action. 

Turkey is like that little mouthy guy at the bar who came in with a few big friends.  If Turkey wasn’t part of NATO would they have shot down the Russian jet?  Not a chance in hell.  What our “friend” Ergy doesn’t understand is that there is no appetite for a war with Russia.  Not in Europe, not among the people of the US.  We’ve no reason to defend Turkey.  At one time, Turkey was a progressive nation with a Muslim majority.  It is quickly turning to an Islamic state, itself.  It is a primary conduit to the European invasion.  They’ve nothing to offer us in return for their protection.   

What will Putin do?  I’ve no idea.  Probably nothing ….. overtly, right now.  But, Putin will respond in time.   Still, he’s a bit of a hothead, so it could be that he responds forcefully very soon.  I think he’s smarter than that, but, one never knows. 

Did I just write about post admonishing entering in multi-lateral treaties?  Well, yes, yes, I did.  This is another great reason why a nation should not do such things.  If Russia responds, we are obligated, by treaty, to defend Turkey, as are the rest of the members of NATO.  If we do not defend Turkey (in response to imagined Russian aggression) then we demonstrate our treaties and words are worth nothing (which they are). 

For right now, all I have to say is that it is well past time to disband NATO.  If the Europeans wish a military alliance, let them do it through the EU.  The US (and Canada) needs no part of it.  If certain states of Europe wish to ally with Russia, so what?  Let them.  For instance, if Portugal wishes to ally with Russia, it doesn’t harm the interests of the US one whit.  Neither does it strengthen Russia.  Europe, as the EU, is a failing and a flailing entity.  Anyone allowing themselves to be attached to Europe, in its present state, is simply tying an albatross around their neck.  Turkey, is, in many respects, part of Europe and every bit a part of the albatross.     

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11 Responses to Turkey, Russia, And NATO

  1. TedG says:

    James.
    I just finished reading this in Canada free press.
    I agree with you and the following Article:

    Time to Trade Turkey for Russia in NATO

    http://canadafreepress.com/article/77042?utm_source=CFP+Mailout&utm_campaign=e2d29f49df-5_20_2015&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_d8f503f036-e2d29f49df-291118753

    The time has come: Turkey should be removed from NATO, and Russia should be invited to join. The common causes the West has with Russia greatly outnumber those it has with the Islamic world.

  2. David A says:

    James I always appreciate your incite. I am throwing this out there for my own education as much as consideration.

    We have a German estimate of 1.5 million refugees this year, so about one million men. Reports of who they are range all over the ball park, Yet even if only five percent have a Muslim Jihadist bent, this is a huge problem. In a sense all the Paris terrorists are immigrants, even if born in France, they are children of Islamic Sharia ideology, and importing more of this is insane.

    The estimated cost for the Os plan for a couple of hundred thousand refugees was some 20 billion dollars plus much more over a longer time period and including families to follow etc.

    My thought is that Putin can very possibly be worked with. What would Putin be prepared to negotiate for the removal of sanctions, acceptance of his relationship with Assad, and maybe even free reign in Crimea?

    Would he agree not to sell Iran weapons upgrades? Would he agree to make no further advances with former Soviet Union nations in exchange for no more NATO expansion, or even withdraw?
    I do not think any of us clearly knows Putin’s goals here. I think his represented historic anger at the Bolsheviks is genuine. There is nothing wrong with wanting your nation to be great, it is just the concept of great that matters! During the time of Catherine the Great, Russia had extensive relations with all of Europe. This historic relationship can be remembered and perhaps restored.

    I would have numerous very long dialogues with Putin. The Jihadists mindset is very dark, and truly evil. A real leader would be having an international meeting on Islamic terrorism, with Russia, China, India, and many other nations involved which have been forced to deal with this. Of course he would have individual meeting first, and have a good idea of their concerns and objectives before such a meeting. The current sanctions are hurting Russia greatly, as well as of course hurting the European enforcers. This alone may be driving some of Putin’s actions

    Would Putin agree to US help and aid in establishing a refugee safe have in Syria, funded by international sources including Middle Eastern? This in conjunction with forcing wealthy Arab states to take refugees is the only sane option IMV. The international community and US and Russia militarily working together to enlarge and improve one or two almost abandoned communities as a safe haven (Protected by international forces) for potentially moderate Shia, Sunni, and of course Christian, and Secular Arabs. Funds would come from Russia, the US , Europe, and whatever Arab nations we coerced into proving their desire for peace. Syria, under Assad, already protected Christians and had a mix of Shia and Sunnis. Here is a link to Level Head discussing how Egypt (after rejection Obama’s attempt to instill the M.B.) is now combatting Islamism. http://level-head.livejournal.com/653612.html There are some M.E. educated Imams who utterly reject the Hadith, and forward a purely spiritual interpretation of Jihad. Of course currently they have death fatwa’s issued against them.

    This would be many billions cheaper then other nations trying to accept such refugees as well as have none of the security concerns of European nations and US communities, and have another very major benefit; it would be an EXAMPLE of how the ME could prosper, and to facilitate this Moderate Imam’s (There are a few) would operate mosques, formally rejecting the hadith and material Jihad.

    There are SOME moderate Muslims, formally religiously educated in Egypt, who do not accept the hadith, and express an articulate and benign interpretation of the Koran. Shias already reject parts of the hadith. The elements of reform are there in some Shia groups, and in some Sunni mystic factions. The idea of a demand for a political Caliphate must be untaught as well. These safe havens with freedom of religion would initially be heavily secured, both internally from dissent, and externally from radically elements which would want it to fail. (By the way, my initial thought, after reading some books at the time, was that the US should not go into Iraq as the power vacuum was not predictable and the US would be to extended and to risky with Iran right there) but we should have gone very heavily into Afghanistan and done exactly this; make one small nation work as a model with the international community both financing it, and securing it.

    In conjunction with these model safe heavens, the US and Russian forces working together would militarily provide the stick, converting ISIS and Al Qaeda affiliates to dust, The clear message would be that the Jihadist mind set is a loser. “Pain is a prod to memory” As a part of the bargain with Russia, Iran would then be told to leave Israel alone and no longer fund Hezbollah. These safe heavens in a nation secured by joint Russian and US forces would then, with international support begin to have a very heavy influence on the rest of the Muslim world forcing reform.

    It would take leadership far stronger then what we currently have to make this work, and it may not work, but certainly it would not be the current refugee suicide perpetuated by the EU, by Obama, and now by Canada.

    This is an international problem, and if the nations of the world (more economically interdependent then ever) cannot impose a solution, then the US can and should just simply leave, encouraging internal Shia / Sunni dissent on the way out, and leaving a strong unequivocal message to leave Israel alone. (on the way out of the ME, do to Hezbollah what Putin is doing to ISIS, with a promise to return with far greater force if Israel is attacked.) We should have established energy independence from the ME a long time ago, and so should have Europe. (Yet another consequence of the wacko environmental watermelons.)

    My gut tells me you will conclude that Islam would fail to take advantage of such an opportunity, and, although a strong international community of the EU, Russia, and to some degree India, and perhaps even China, could impinge this taming of Islam, I think even then, Islam may not be tamable and we have no US or EU leader of that capacity and strength.

    Your thoughts always appreciated.

    • Latitude says:

      David, the problem now is no one trusts Obama….no one trusts the election process in the US…it can swing from one extreme to the other, and is leaning more left/pacifist every day

      If I were another country I wouldn’t even give us the time of day……..

      • David A says:

        Yes Sir as long as the O’s hand is on the rudder, the strife in this world will only grow and US credibility will wither. My thoughts were trying to develop along the lines of what would be the most effective thing to do to both maintain global economy and combat Islam, Sort of a “If I were in charge…” with the caveat that I know there is much I do not know. As such I welcome the thoughts of you and other posters here.

  3. Lars P. says:

    Turkey’s story does not stand up:
    “10 warnings over 5 minutes”
    when according to the Turkish data (!), the plane entered for 17 seconds its territory. Where are the 5 minutes in those 17 seconds?
    It is even worse, according to their own data it must have been less then 17 seconds – maybe 5:
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-24/17-seconds-changed-world-leaked-letter-exposes-turkeys-hair-trigger-reality

    But something doesn’t sound right.
    Journalists: Learn to do basic maths. Look at Turkey’s statement to UN: 1.15 miles / 17 seconds x 60 x 60 = 243 miles/hour = 391 km/hour

    Looks like the mouthy guy at the bar made up his story.

    • Latitude says:

      exactly Lars, there was no time for 10 warnings

      But here’s the point….there was no time to shoot the plane down in Turkish air space either…they had to have shot it down in Syrian air space

      • David A says:

        the warnings started well before the 17 seconds as in, “you are approaching our air space, divert now.” This does not change the fact that shooting it down was quite wrong and contrary to the US Soviet agreement regarding air flight and the US had responsibility to ensure NATO compliancy.

        • Latitude says:

          David, then Turkey can claim anything….They were flying right around the border….do the math on how fast they are flying, and how far away they would be 5 mins out…
          5 mins out, Turkey would have had to have been giving constant warnings all day

          ….~20 miles out

        • David A says:

          Thanks Latitude, yes, it certainly appears to have been pre meditated, Supposedly their is audio of the warnings, and must admit I know nothing of other soviet flights, and if flying parallel to the border illicit a different response the flying directly towards the border However ten warning in five minutes would cover what, 35miles? The article I read with was linked at Canadian Free Press to the daily mail article here. There was some voice tapes of a warning, but I do not think of anything like the ten warnings claimed. Zero-hedge is claiming that the US has a satellite heat signature reading of the plane being hit over Syrian territory, but that is being suppressed.
          http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3333117/Downed-Russian-pilot-picked-Syrian-army-envoy.html#ixzz3sVpV6uMt
          It is a fairly comprehensive article.

  4. DirkH says:

    Well NATO’s purpose is to do what the USA always does; encircle Russia with military bases and anti missile defense, ultimately try to get hold of of Russian resources, block alliance between Germany and Russia (NATO being one of the instruments here, tools in German parties another).

    NATO used to be halfdead when Merkel announced 2 years ago that commitments could not be honored. Whether and how Merkel / the CDU got turned into Germany-destroying traitors via total islamization is an interesting question. Merkel did have an “accident” where she allegedly broke her hip in a skiing accident. Rather unlikely as she was ski-hiking. Was this a warning?

    Nevermind. She must be jailed. THere are no excuses for treason.

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