I haven’t written much about the drama in the Repub race, lately. Or, the Dim race, for that matter. But, there are a couple of recent polls out, and I thought I’d jot a couple of lines and share some thoughts.
The two polls are Quinnipiac and Fox. The numbers are pretty similar so I think they’re pretty much right. Now, the polls are probably right, but, the reporting of the different polls diverge, significantly!!!!
Here’s MSNBC’s take on the Quinnipiac poll …….
Moving on to the more accurate Fox News reporting of the Fox poll …….
Here are the numbers: Trump has the backing of 26 percent of Republican primary voters and is closely followed by Carson at 23 percent. The next tier includes two first-term Cuban-American senators: Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio at 11 percent each. Those four capture the support of 7 in 10 primary voters (71 percent).
From there, Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, John Kasich, and Rand Paul receive 4 percent each.
Carly Fiorina garners 3 percent, down from 5 percent last month and 9 percent in September.
The poll, released Wednesday, is one of two national telephone polls conducted entirely since the October 28 CNBC Republican debate.
Since mid-October, support for Kasich is up 3 percentage points, Trump and Rubio are up 2 points, and Cruz is up 1 point. Carson has held steady while Bush has dropped by 4 points.
Chris Christie has 2 percent now, up from 1 percent last month.
Given the other recent polling, none of this is very surprising, though I’m mildly surprised by Fiorina’s shrinking numbers. Throughout the cycle, I’ve been surprised by Paul’s weak polling.
This polls gives us some other surprises …..
The favorites among white evangelical Christians include Carson (33 percent), Trump (23 percent) and Cruz (12 percent). Those three are also the top picks among the Tea Party movement, although in a different order: Trump (26 percent), Cruz (24 percent) and Carson (19 percent).
Okay, I’m not sure of the definition of “evangelical Christians” as used in this case. But, this seems off by quite a bit. Carson, I understand, Trump, I don’t. I’m not judging the man, I will just take him at his word when he said he never had the occasion to ask God for forgiveness. Further, while it may sound like I’m bashing Trump, I’m not, I’m just trying to be analytical. The “Tea Party” numbers are also a bit off. Other than the border issue, Trump has no stance consistent with typical Tea Party advocacy.
What this tells me is that the support for Trump should be transient in many cases, as voters become more knowledgeable about the specifics of each candidate. …….. well, once they get around to articulating specifics, that is.
I would imagine most of the Paul supporters would go to Cruz if and when Paul drops out. If Bush drops out, I would suspect most of his supporters would move to Rubio, but, with Cruz gaining from it, as well.
Donald Trump 26% Ben Carson 23 Ted Cruz 11 Marco Rubio 11 Jeb Bush 4 John Kasich 4 Rand Paul 4 Mike Huckabee 4 Carly Fiorina 3 Chris Christie 2 Rick Santorum * Bobby Jindal * Lindsey Graham * Jim Gilmore * George Pataki – (Other) 1 (None of the above) 1 (Don’t know) 5
There are still 7 percentage points up for grabs, but, I expect this to remain until the end. I have no idea why Graham, Gilmore, and Pataki are still in it. Trump and Carson will continue to be neck and neck until one of them makes a huge mistake. It’s strange because they’re pulling from the same base which supports outsiders. Trump and Carson have very contrasting styles and personalities.
I expect, in the end, the establishment Repubs will move to Rubio, though, I’m not counting Christie out, yet. Bush will stay in the race as long as he wishes. He keeps saying he has to do a better job at campaigning, but, his problem is much deeper than that. His problem is that he has no message and the majority of Repubs are at odds with him on his immigration stance.
Moving on to the Dim side, this says it all ……
Ouch!!!! That has to hurt! Again, h/t Twitchy
But, this probably hurts just as bad …..
Turning to the Democratic side, front-runner Hillary Clinton outdistances Bernie Sanders by a 56-31 percent margin.
Previous Fox News polls included several Democratic contenders who are now out of the running, most notably Vice President Joe Biden. Even so, we can compare the new results to how things stood before the first Democratic debate and Clinton’s Capitol Hill testimony on Benghazi. Clinton’s current 25-point margin over Sanders is mostly unchanged from last month when she had a 26-point lead without Biden in the race.
Well, the unidentified man also gets no mention in the Fox poll.
For those curious, the unidentified man is Martin O’Malley, running for the Democrat nomination for POTUS. That stated, it almost makes sense for O’Malley to remain in the running. Here’s why ……
Very soon, we’re going to see just how badly Sanders wants to be POTUS. For the most part, it’s been a bit of a love fest for the Dims. And, the polling hasn’t changed. Simply put, if Sanders wants to be POTUS, he has to go after Hillary. We all know team Hillary will respond if and when this happens. This should make for some good popcorn eating! And, that’s why it kinda makes sense for the unidentified man to remain in the running.
Well, those are my thoughts, what do you think?
Post Script ……. I thought “Jefferson-Jackson” dinners were deemed racist by the lunatic Dims. What gives that all three Dim candidates are attending such an event?