Dumbass Economic Writers Take Great Pains To Avoid Telling The Truth!

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I thought I’d share this article, mostly because the more I read it the more I kept saying to myself no one can possibly be this stupid!

Why job growth and cheap gas aren’t doing what they should

I thought, given the headline, that they’d something about the McJobs that are being gained and how that doesn’t actually run an economy.  But, no …..

WASHINGTON (AP) — Steady hiring is supposed to fire up economic growth.

Well, no, steady hiring is in response to economic growth, not the other way around.  But, the hiring must be specific to actual wealth creating jobs, rather than wealth transfer jobs. 

Cheap gasoline is supposed to power consumer spending.

Well ….. only somewhat.  That’s not what cheap gasoline is suppose to do for an economy.  Cheap transport energy simply encourages more transport.  That, in and of itself, doesn’t spur spending.  It lowers the cost of transport, so, more goods can be moved cheaper.  But, people have to have money to buy the goods.  Don’t get me wrong, cheaper gas is a wonderful assist to an economy.  As we are stagnating, imagine how bad it would be if gasoline was up to about $4/gallon! 

Falling unemployment is supposed to boost wages.

Falling unemployment —- this is how we know this is stupid spin rather than someone trying to give any particular insights.  It has been demonstrated, over and over again that most of our falling unemployment rate is attributed to a smaller percentage of the workforce pool, rather than any huge jobs gains.  All things being equal, the small participation percentage, the lower the unemployment rate. 

Low mortgage rates are supposed to spur home buying.

Sigh …… combine the facts that wages are not increasing, the banking industries stricter standards for home loans, and a shrinking labor participation rate, the fact that home buying isn’t booming cannot possibly be a surprise to anyone. 

America’s economic might is supposed to benefit its workers.

Yet all those common assumptions about how an economy thrives appear to have broken down during the first three months of 2015.

The economic benefits that normally would flow after a full year of solid hiring have yet to emerge. Just 126,000 jobs were added in March, the government said Friday. Average weekly paychecks fell.

Restaurants cut back on hiring because savings at the gas pump didn’t lead to more dinner reservations. Builders and manufacturers each cut 1,000 workers from payrolls, thanks to tepid construction activity and so-so factory orders.

Had Friday’s report been released a few days earlier, “it would have been laughed at as a great April Fools’ joke,” said Gregory Daco, head of U.S. macroeconomics at Oxford Economics.

The middling gains confirm evidence elsewhere of a broad economic slowdown. During the first three months of the year, the Atlanta Federal Reserve forecasts that the economy actually came to a standstill — failing to grow at all.

Some of the first quarter’s slowdown is no doubt due to an especially harsh winter. Yet nearly six years into the recovery from the Great Recession, the economy’s muddled progress seems inescapable. A long-awaited breakout remains elusive, suggesting that the economy’s direction has never been quite as simple as some analysts, politicians and bar stool philosophers would have it.

Now, some analysts are pointing to factors that might have been downplayed or overlooked this year. Others are holding to their projections about the economy as it theoretically should be. After all, they reason, March may prove to be a hiccup akin to what happened in 2014, when a first-quarter slump was followed by a burst of growth in the ensuing months.

Here are five factors that help explain why the U.S. economy isn’t accelerating as you might expect.

— NASTY WEATHER

For parts of the United States, it felt like endless winter. The snowfall and frigid temperatures that lingered until the closing days of March can freeze economic growth.

Construction crews built fewer homes: On a seasonally adjusted basis, builders broke ground on 17 percent fewer homes between January and February. Shoppers skipped visits to the mall and auto dealers, choosing instead to crank up the thermostat. Retail sales fell in January and February.

“Losses to construction and some moderation in retail hiring relative to last year suggest unusually harsh winter weather played some role in explaining the weakness,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial.

If weather was a culprit, it might actually be an encouraging fact. It would mean that the economy remains fundamentally healthy — something that would become evident once the clouds lift and the sun emerges in spring.

And that would be exactly what occurred last year.

Still, Swonk cautions that weather explains “some but not all” of the disappointing growth.

Nasty weather ….. this has got to be the most inane excuse I can conceive.  First of all, can anyone ever remember a time in US history when one part of our huge nation didn’t have some inclement weather of some sort?  I can’t.  Further, while inclement weather does delay construction, people still buy food, they increase their purchases of winter goods, and fuel, and they continue on with their daily lives.  Snow in the NE has a near zero effect on the total US economy.  It’s complete and utter bullshit.  Did any of these idiots bother to look north to Canada and see what their economy is doing?  Of course, not!  Snow only bothers US economies, not Canadian!!! — or some other imbecilic rationalization. 

— STRONG DOLLAR

Many U.S. factories ship their wares around the world. But because the U.S. economy has fared better than its trade partners, U.S. factories are now at a disadvantage: America’s relative health has helped drive up the dollar’s international value. Goods from U.S. factories are about 20 percent costlier in Europe than a year ago, an increase that has dampened sales.

So the U.S. economy’s very strength has helped create a weakness.

Which is why Maryland-based Marlin Steel has held off on plans to hire more metal workers.

“It’s not just me selling into Europe — it’s all of my clients selling into Europe,” said Drew Greenblatt, president of Marlin Steel. “They’re all dealing with the pain.”

Only in the mind of a leftard can more purchasing power in the hands of the people be seen as a drag on the economy.  Moreover, I would suggest that the sales decrease in Europe has more to do with Europe’s crappy economy, than the increase in the Dollar against the Euro.   

— OIL’S SLICK MOVES

A barrel of crude oil costs under $50, having more than halved in price since June. This means wells are pumping out smaller profits, if not losses. When oil prices plunge and billions of dollars are at stake, oil companies tend to respond quickly to curb production. The number of active rigs has fallen 50 percent since October, according to Baker Hughes, the oilfield services company. This has led to layoffs, tighter budgets and fewer orders for equipment, all which hurt growth.

Consumers, by contrast, have yet to respond to their savings from cheaper gasoline by spending much more. The lag means that the oil companies’ cutbacks have yet to be offset by greater retail spending. So the economy has suffered all the downside, while the upside has yet to appear, said Carl Tannenbaum, chief economist at Northern Trust.

Tannenbaum predicts that consumers will eventually respond to gas prices, which are on average 33 percent lower than a year ago. When they finally do, the economy should perk up.

You know what would put oil workers back to work, even at < $50/barrel?  Pipelines!  Build the pipelines and the cost of transport decreases, which then raises the profitability of the oil.  Oh, yeh, and it also employs the unemployed construction workers. —– providing more people with real paying jobs to spend their strong dollars on stuff, which then grows the economy.  This isn’t hard. 

— MEAGER PAY RAISES

It’s hard for consumers to spend more if their paychecks barely move. Average annual wage growth is stuck at a meager 2.1 percent even as the U.S. unemployment rate has tumbled over the past year to a near-normal 5.5 percent from 6.6 percent. And average hours worked declined last month, causing workers to earn even less than they did in February.

In theory, the hiring surge that occurred over the past year should lead to higher wages. After all, when the unemployment rate falls, it usually becomes harder for companies to hire capable workers, forcing them to offer better pay. But despite recent raises at McDonald’s, Wal-Mart and other companies with lower-paid workers, there’s little evidence that pay growth is accelerating.

I can’t believe the imbeciles actually wrote this crap!  Great news!!!!  Wal-Mart is now paying $1/hr more for their greeters!!!!  (I’m not sure of the amount.)  THESE ARE McJOBS!!!!!  It’s like raising the minimum wage and wondering why the economy didn’t actually grow!  How stupid is that?

It might be that the unemployment rate needs to fall even further. The Federal Reserve now says a normal economy should have a rate as low as 5 percent.

A “normal” economy?  I’ve never once before read or heard where anyone thought the unemployment rate should be higher than 5%.  Indeed, at persistent 5% we would have a stagnant economy, not a growing one.  Given the decrease in the participation rate, we’d need it near 3% to have moderate growth. 

But another possibility is that a sizable pool of workers remains available around the world, providing cheap labor that suppresses wage growth in the United States. In recent years, the global labor pool has added more than 3.5 billion working-age people from emerging economies. This increase can suppress U.S. pay growth, said Megan Greene, chief economist at John Hancock Asset Management.

“If you have that many jobs globally, it’s hard to see why wages would be pushed up in a sustainable way,” she said.

Weird, it seems to me that there’s always been a sizable global pool of cheap labor.  Oddly, during the 80s and 90s, while there was a sizable pool of cheap labor, the wages in the US were able to grow. 

Consider the housing market. Since home prices bottomed in 2012, they’ve surged at a 13-1 ratio compared with raises, according to an analysis by RealtyTrac, a real estate information company. Without rising incomes to save for a down payment and cover monthly mortgage payments, most people who hope to own a home can’t take advantage of historically low mortgage rates. This has led to sales running below last year’s pace, according to the National Association of Realtors.

— GOING AUTOMATIC

The U.S. economy is undergoing seismic technological shifts. And many employers are finding automation preferable to hiring. A survey of Harvard Business School alumni released in September found that nearly half would rather invest in technology than hire or retain workers. This displacement can undermine the usual connection between falling unemployment and rising wages.

Even smaller employers are turning to tech. Recent job ads failed to produce enough qualified applicants at Massachusetts-based retailer Dave’s Soda and Pet City, which sells soda and pet food at seven locations. Founder Dave Ratner said his 150 employees earn on average $15 an hour. Raising pay would make him less competitive with national chains. So Ratner chose instead to automate his stores’ ordering system.

“We’re spending a ton of money trying to automate everything we do,” he said. “Anywhere we can cut down on the amount of labor without sacrificing customer service. …We’ve just never done that before. But it’s really a necessity.”

It’s fascinating how leftards have always brought this up, have always been shown to be wrong, and persist to forward this inane meme. 

Yes, the cotton gin has been such a drag on our economy.  Industrial lasers, earth moving loaders, the automobile …… yep, they’re job killers! 

They’re automating retailers!!!!  Oh noes!!!!!!  That’s going to kill our economy!!!!!  Next thing you know, I’ll be able to order pizza over the internet!!!!! 

It’s sad.  Rather than address reality, leftards would opt to remain perplexed as to why the tail can’t wag the dog. 

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2 Responses to Dumbass Economic Writers Take Great Pains To Avoid Telling The Truth!

  1. DirkH says:

    “Weird, it seems to me that there’s always been a sizable global pool of cheap labor. Oddly, during the 80s and 90s, while there was a sizable pool of cheap labor, the wages in the US were able to grow. ”

    The pool was there but was mostly biding its time.

    China only got Most Favoured Nation status under Clinton/Rubin in 1999. Only Since 2000 they’ve really picked up speed and actually USED the pool of cheap labor.

    Now of course the question becomes, what did Clinton get for that…

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