Well, we’re out of time.
A while back, I wrote a post about timings of US recessions. Because of the manner in which, or the lack thereof, I sort my posts, it’s a pain to retrieve it. What I wrote was that there was a natural ebb and flow to all economies. Without external influences, there would be a sort of cadence to economies. The natural long-term trend is always to the positive. We always grow, we always do more, we always get more from our work. This is, simply, human nature. But, from the growth, there are always periods in which we have to stop and separate the wheat from the chaff, and then, we grow, again.
Today, we see this ….
I would reproduce the informative AP article about our slowing, in it’s entirety, but, ……. wait!!!! I just did!!!
Yep, that’s all they had to say about that. —– Thanks Forrest!!!!
Know that a continued slide next quarter will be blamed on the snow in the northeast we’re having now.
But, we shouldn’t have a slowing, just as we should not have had a slowing last quarter. Gasoline and oil prices are lower than they had been for a very long time. We should be taking off!!!
But, is the fact that Saudi is pumping the only cause for the low gasoline and oil prices? We have this from Charles Payne, a fellow I highlighted the other day.
Wednesday was another difficult session, although it did not start out that way; stocks galloped out the gate on the coattails of Apple and industrials, Boeing and U.S. Steel. However, the rally tripped over a sizeable speed bump that might actually represent a speed bump for the entire nation. Commercial crude oil inventory surged, coming in at almost 9 million barrels or 100% higher than anticipated. How much longer can we call this a story of supply, and not a hint at a flagging demand from a flaccid economy?
+8.9 million 406,700,000 Barrels
After the Federal Reserve finished its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) gathering and issued its typical release, stocks slowly began to slide. That slide mirrored the proverbial snow-into-boulder scenario as selling intensified and beget even more selling. Buyers made a stand at the plus/minus line a couple of times before giving up the ghost. The result was a serious two-day drubbing.
The reason for the slide was bond yields, which tripped hard and in many respects, inexplicably. The bond rally has been defiant and it continues to confound the experts. I must admit that I am surprised. On the one hand, yields are down; on the other hand, it is not unusual for selling to trigger selling. However, once key technical marks are eclipsed, a certain bias is established- in this case, due south.
Between that horrible durable goods report, the cascade of corporate warnings, and the mounting crude inventories, it is hard to be convinced that this is a robust recovery.
Thus, I think in general that stocks got ahead of themselves on a short-term basis, so this cleaning process serves a purpose. Remember, you are investing in individual stocks, so an oversold market can only act as an anchor for so long.
Moreover, there are unresolved questions about the economy and the market. I have never allowed the hours after the FOMC announcement to factor into my decision-making; the day after is the one that counts. …
There is more to read and nice graphs at the link.
The thing is, our oil and gas prices have been dropping for several months now. This, in and of itself, should have served as a springboard for our economy. It didn’t.
Yes, consumers are spending their savings from the low gas prices, but, even that’s not enough.
I had thought Zero was going to leave office before the next recession. I’m not so sure, now.
Take heart, though. It’s all about learning and the sneakers!!! “What?” You say.
Let me explain.
The US isn’t the only group of people in a world of $hit. There are, actually, other people in front of us in the race to the bottom. At some point, learning will kick in. Who learns first is the people who put the sneakers on first.
So, the Europeans, Americans, and the Japanese are walking through the woods ……….
when a huge brown bear suddenly appears in the clearing about 50 feet in front of them. The bear sees the campers and begins to head toward them. The first guys drops his backpack, digs out a pair of sneakers, and frantically begins to put them on. The other guys say, “What are you doing? Sneakers won’t help you outrun that bear.” “I don’t need to outrun the bear,” the first guy says. “I just need to outrun you.”
Economics is like that, sometimes. But, before we put on our sneakers, we have to learn that we need to.