If It Is Really About Turnout, Then We Win ….. If …..


Fox has this …..

Fox News Poll: 1-point margin in Iowa, Kansas and North Carolina Senate races

“It all comes down to turnout.”

That’s one of the biggest clichés in politics. It’s also true in one-point races. Welcome to Iowa, Kansas and North Carolina.  ……

There’s much more to read at the link. 

It it just comes down to “turn out” then Repubs win.  No one can say the Dim base is energized. They’re not.  OTOH, the Repub base is divided. 

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15 Responses to If It Is Really About Turnout, Then We Win ….. If …..

  1. Actually, it all comes to everything.

    Scott and Crist are still in a statistical tie, but a Tampa Bay Times poll today reported that 8% are still claiming “undecided” and an astonishing 13% of likely voters are simply refusing to say who they support.


    • Latitude says:

      conservatives do not poll………….and there’s no such thing as a liberal independent, unless they are running for office and then they all are

      • A USF professor told the Times that it seems the Libertarian candidate (Wyllie) is actually pulling more support from the Democrats than the Republicans right now. But you’re right that conservatives “don’t poll”. Speaking for myself, I have a habit of hanging up on such people. But in fairness, they’re “supposed” to have correction factors for that. But if the degree of “resistance” increases, then the correction factors need correction and there would be a lag before they would be able to get that done.


        • Latitude says:

          Did you notice there was a huge increase in independents……right after democrats starting following people home, flattening tires, shooting at people’s houses, and black guys swinging batons hanging out at the front doors

        • In my area, most independents are economically conservative, socially Marxist, and geopolitically clueless. In terms of how they vote, they sway all over the place and are very hard to predict. Their IQ has massively crashed in the last 20 years. They often think of themselves as conservatives, even while voting for many hard left-liberals. But they are capable, in extreme situations, of reaching a good decision. This time, I suspect that about 47-50% of them are careening toward Scott ultimately. But the mild Democrats (strong feelings, but semi-frequent voters) are under extreme pressure to turn out, even though most don’t want to this time. Many who do will probably vote for Wyllie. He is at 6% in that poll I mentioned. At times he’s polled as high as 10. Conservatives here are extremely strong for Scott.

        • Arguably, our greatest problem with the gubernatorial race is “moderate” to hard-left Republicans who supported Crist in 2006, strongly supported Scott over the hard-core Marxist Alex Sink in 2010, but now, after four years of watching Scott steadily moderate his positions, have suddenly (and inexplicably) decided that they despise Scott and like the new Crist better than the old one. There’s something very “funny” going on with that, and let me tell you, it reeks. I expect that this mystery is going to be hanging around here for a while, without being adequately sorted out.

  2. DirkH says:

    NYT hates it when women can defend themselves against rape (no surprise there); page contains tweets by real life rape victim Kimberly Weeks. She also posts a link to her story.

  3. DirkH says:

    Kuroda decides to buy ALL new Japanese public debt. VOX says that’s how you do it, demands the Fed does the same.

    Of course we will now see Japan go the way of Venezuela. And we will see the Fed restart QE as well (the interest rate carry trade T Bills vs long term treasuries of the big banks will otherwise collapse – Fed must keep short term interest rates at zero at all costs to save their buddies. The moment they rise it’s fire and brimstone.)

  4. Latitude says:

    From Kansas to Kentucky, North Carolina to Alaska, Tea Party supporters who saw their endorsed candidates lose to establishment Republicans in U.S. Senate primaries are holding their noses as they prepare to put endangered Republican candidates over the top with their votes in closely fought U.S. Senate races.

    Tea Party Support May Put GOP over the Top in ‘The Hold Your Nose Election of 2014’


    • DirkH says:

      Doesn’t this work out nicely for Skull&Bones.

      • cdquarles says:

        That’s the downside.

        I voted today. I’ve been voting since the age was lowered from 21 to 18 (first Presidential election I was eligible for was the 1980 election). I’ve seen Alabama go from a near one-party D state to a near one-party R state. Historically, that’s been the pattern. Pre-Civil War was heavily slavery supporting Southern Democrat then post-Civil War heavily Republican (skewed by the temporary disqualification of slavery supporting Southern Ds). Over time, the Ds took control after the end of the Reconstruction rules. Since the end of Jim Crow, slowly the Rs have taken control. My ballot, today, looked much like that one in 1980, except that most of the local races were unopposed D back then, instead of the mostly unopposed R one. There were five ballot measures to vote on, in the form of amendments to our 1901 Constitution. This time I went Yes to 4 and No to 1. I have been voting No on most of these recently.

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