You all will have to excuse the clumsy effort, I may try again, later, but, for now, this is it. I’ll explain the colors in a moment.
Currently, the U.S. Senate has 55 Dems and 45 Repubs (technically there are 2 independents, but, they’re leftards and caucus with the Dems. There will be 33 senators up for election next year. 20 are Dems, 13 are Repubs. In order for the Repubs to reclaim the Senate, they have to win 19 of the elections. 18 would tie up the Senate, but, the Vice President, during tie votes, casts the deciding vote, so Repubs need 19 to gain control.
The colors on the states: These are states I believe are vulnerable to swing. There are different reasons for them. The blue are the ones currently held by Dems, and the orange are ones currently held by Repubs. I’ll go through each sitting senator, very briefly, for more clarity. The color orange is picked for the Repubs because they’re only vulnerable if one of two things happen, which probably won’t, but, it is a possibility. They can swing if …. if the incumbent loses to an unknown in the primaries, or, if the base stays home. For instance, McConnell, from Kentucky will not lose to Grimes. But, he’s got a challenge from the base and neither side appears to be willing to shake hands and make up. If McConnell loses in the primary, then name recognition becomes very important. Same is true for Lamar Alexander. Graham in South Carolina may lose because the base just might stay home. But, other than that, I don’t see the sitting Repubs having any problems. Now, let’s look at the US and how they voted by county state in the last election.
Now, let’s note some things. First, counties give you no information as to the population. Senators are elected by popular vote by state. Still, you can get a fair idea about how some of the states go. Let’s also note, Colorado and New Mexico voted Dem. However, things in Colorado have most certainly changed. In both NM and Colo., it’s all about turnout. In Colorado, the Repub base will, most definitely, turn out. The problem with both of those states, is that there’s a relatively strong Independent crowd, which could be problematic. OTOH, I don’t sense that the Dem New Mexico base is all that fired up.
Here are the Senators whose terms expire in 2014 and how I see it.
|Arkansas||Mark Pryor||Democratic||Very Questionable|
|Colorado||Mark Udall||Democratic||Very Questionable|
|Delaware||Chris Coons||Democratic||Should Be Safe|
|Illinois||Dick Durbin||Democratic||Should Be Safe|
|Iowa||Tom Harkin||Democratic||Retire/Should Go Repub|
|Louisiana||Mary Landrieu||Democratic||Very Questionable|
|Massachusetts||Ed Markey||Democratic||Should Be Safe|
|Montana||Max Baucus||Democratic||Retire/Should Go Repub|
|New Hampshire||Jeanne Shaheen||Democratic||Possible|
|New Jersey||Cory Booker||Democratic||Should Be Safe|
|New Mexico||Tom Udall||Democratic||Questionable|
|North Carolina||Kay Hagan||Democratic||Questionable|
|Oregon||Jeff Merkley||Democratic||Should Be Safe|
|Rhode Island||Jack Reed||Democratic||Should Be Safe|
|South Dakota||Tim Johnson||Democratic||Questionable|
|West Virginia||Jay Rockefeller||Democratic||Questionable|
|Alabama||Jeff Sessions||Republican||Should Be Safe|
|Georgia||Saxby Chambliss||Republican||Should Be Safe|
|Idaho||Jim Risch||Republican||Should Be Safe|
|Kansas||Pat Roberts||Republican||Is Safe|
|Maine||Susan Collins||Republican||Should Be Safe|
|Mississippi||Thad Cochran||Republican||Should Be Safe|
|Nebraska||Mike Johanns||Republican||Should Be Safe|
|Oklahoma||Jim Inhofe||Republican||Is Safe|
|South Carolina||Lindsey Graham||Republican||Maybe?|
|Texas||John Cornyn||Republican||Should Be Safe|
|Wyoming||Mike Enzi||Republican||Should Be Safe|
I’ll start at the top and work down. Begich? What the heck is a Dem doing in an Alaskan seat? Alaska has strange politics, so I can’t say for sure, but, I expect a very strong challenge from any Repub and would be mildly surprised if Begich stays.
Mark Pryor (Arkansas) is in trouble. He has to run as an anti-Dem to win. And, I’m pretty sure Hillary is going to hurt more than she helps in that election. Romney took 60% of the vote there. It won’t get any better for Dems next year.
Mark Udall …. anyone following Colorado politics know there’s a fired up Repub base and they’re kicking ass and taking names right now. Most of this has to do with the gun control efforts in Colorado, but, Zerocare isn’t helping, either. Zero won 51% of the vote in 2012. Any bets on how he’d do today? Biggest trick in Colo. is to keep the 3rd parties at bay.
Coons … the only think I know, or need to know is that Delaware votes Dem.
Durbin ….. I think he can stay as long as he wants, or, if he follows other Illinois politicians, he can stay until the indictment, but, then, be replaced with a Dem, anyway.
Harkin is leaving. Iowa is wide open and should go Repub. It’s hard to tell with Iowa, but, they’re really a swing state which swings back and forth. The pendulum should swing Red …. if Repubs get it together and run someone strong.
Landrieu is another in real trouble. What once was a bastion Dem state is now Repub and getting more Repub by year. For the Repubs, it’s just a matter of picking the right guy or gal to run against her. For any power brokers in the Repub party, you beg him to run, you finance his campaign, you get him out there!!!!
Mr. “Math” Markey should be safe because he’s entrenched in leftard country. But, he’s an idiot, so if someone can get him talking …….
Levin in Michigan, from the outside, would appear safe. But, Michigan is unpredictable, and there’s a lot of them who are tired of the old failures.
Franken and Minnesota …. I’ve long learned not to try and understand people from Minnesota, but, even they can’t really believe Franken deserves another term, can they?
Baucus …. buh bye!!! He’s retiring. Romney carried 55% of the vote in Montana. As long as the Repubs run someone sensible, this should be a lock for Repubs. Just support the candidate and it’s a win.
Shaheen in NH. New Hampshire is still a place with a lot of old school establishment Repubs. Zero carried NH with 52%, but, I’m betting right now that wouldn’t happen again. It would take a very good effort, but, it is possible that she can be unseated.
Booker and his imaginary friends. He probably wouldn’t be in that seat right now if Christie hadn’t tanked the Repubs by separating his governor election from the senate election. But, now that’s he’s in there, he’s probably safe. Another reminder to Repubs, you run Christie and myself and thousands of other bloggers will actively campaign for someone else, but, more importantly, I would actively work to see him defeated. We’re not playing your stupid games anymore.
Udall in New Mexico …. if Repubs can wrap him up in Zerocare, he can be vulnerable. Again, I don’t think the base is fired up, (hahahaha the illegal voters will stay home!!!) So there’s an opportunity.
Hagan and North Carolina …. Romney took it with just over 50% of the vote. I’m thinking Repubs can have a better showing this time around.
Merkley …. he’s from Oregon. Those lunatics will continue to vote for them even if none of their web sites work.
Reed and RI ….. there was a time when RI could go Repub. But, I’m not that optimistic.
Johnson in South Dakota. The Dakotas have always been a mystery to me. They usually go Repub, but, sometimes they find a Dem and won’t turn lose of him. I think they have Minnesotans moving west and muddling things up. Still, Romney got 58% of the vote. I can’t imagine any Dem base in SD being excited, so this is another seat which Repubs can get.
Warner in Virginia. ….. Well, there’s a lot of ifs and buts. And, I’m not optimistic at this moment, but, with the right candidate and backing ……
Rockefeller and West Virginia ….. a few years back, I’d had said there’s no way on earth to move Rockefeller out. And, it still might be a chore, but, there are some very upset people in West Virginia, and they feel like the Dems have sold them out. Mostly because they have. Romney took 62% of the vote there. I think with the right voice Repubs can win this seat.
That’s all the Dems. For the Repubs, we see a bunch of entrenched people. People like Sessions, Roberts, Inhofe ….. those guys aren’t going anywhere. Likely, the Dems will only put up token opposition. A few meet and greets and they’re back in. Same for Collins in Maine, Cornyn in Texas ….. I don’t see Idaho or Mississippi or Wyoming going blue. The only thing I see with this class is the party division.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not making a judgment as to whether or not these people need challenged in the primaries, I’m just making observations.
Now, this is just my opinion, and granted much more research needs to be made, but, from where I sit, I don’t see any Repub seats moving to Dems. It could be wishful thinking, but, I don’t think so. They’re all in pretty solid Repub states. Now, that said, I’m not in tune with the local state politics on many of these. The Dems could run some formidable candidates at them. But, as a national party effort, I think Dems will be too busy defending territory to go on any offensive. For arguments sake, let’s say the Dems sneak one in. That puts the tally at 1-12. I see at least 6 Dem seats which will stay Dem. That puts the tally at 7-12. Three seats should fall into Repub hands, if they just show up with a reasonable candidate and have reasonable support …. Montana, Arkansas, and Louisiana. That puts the tally at 7-15. I think Repubs should also win, but, I’m much less sure, Alaska, Colorado, and South Dakota. For argument sake, let’s say Repubs take 2 of them but, lose one. That puts the tally at 8-17. There are two more Dem seats which I’m not sure Repubs are even going to give a serious challenge to, and it would be an uphill fight anyway, so 10-17. That leaves NM, Iowa, Minnesota, NH, WV, and NC. Repubs only need two, and recall, I don’t see any Repubs being displaced, I just tossed one for argument sake.
Barring something massively stupid, Repubs should own the Senate come 2015. It’s way early, yet. And, I plan on examining each state race more closely, as we get closer to the elections. But, that’s the war map.