In another edition of the polls the media won’t cover, between September 29 and October 6, Democrats have lost a four point lead in Rasmussen’s generic ballot that asks voters if they would vote for a Democrat or Republican in the upcoming midterm elections. That poll is now tied at 40% – 40%. At the end of last month, Democrats led 42% – 38%.
The media continue to run headlines that read, “Poll Shows GOP Taking Share of Shutdown Blame,” which is true. Most polls show Republicans are at a single-digit deficit when compared to Democrats (still, a vast improvement over the 2-to-1 deficit the GOP faced in ’95). But all that matters is what happens on Election Day.
The article goes on to note that the mid-terms are hyper local. That point should not be lost. A generic national poll, in relation to the mid-terms holds much less meaning. As I wrote earlier, most people hate congress, but, not their own congressman. (Except for the poor conservative souls stuck on either left coast.)
Now, there are a few things to note. I think Rasmussen did address this, but, we won’t know how effective it was until after the elections, but, they did overstate Republican polling in the last election. Still, a 40-40 split is huge. People declaring a Dem affiliation have always held a huge margin over Repubs. Wiki puts it thusly….
A 2011 USA Today review of state voter rolls indicates that registered Democrats declined in 25 of 28 states (some states do not register voters by party). Democrats were still the largest political party with more than 42 million voters (compared with 30 million Republicans and 24 million independents). But in 2011 Democrats numbers shrank 800,000, and from 2008 they were down by 1.7 million, or 3.9%.
The 2011 numbers break down like this …. 44.7% Dem, 31.3% Repub and 24% Independent.
Now, mind you, there is another dynamic to note. Always, after a party owns the White House, AKA, the Spite House, today, there’s a bit of party weariness. It’s a natural occurrence. Some people are not complacent. So, there is a natural tendency to say ‘let’s give these other guys a try’.
Still, this is reason for optimism, especially given the timing of the polling. Essentially, if the poll is to be believed, then Repubs have shaved 4% from both the Dems and Inds. But, I’m not sure I buy that.
Frequent commenter Kim, shows us this. It’s a sordid tale of establishment Repubs attacking conservative allies.
I truly believe the way forward is that there comes an agreement between the two factions of conservatism. Most of that 20% exists in Dem country. In Dem land the Republican brand is irredeemable. We’ve all seen it here. The antagonists have a bizarre caricature of conservatives and libertarian types. In Dem country, a conservative/libertarian group can make significant inroads, if they don’t use the Repub brand. And, that’s where you start. Move first to weaken the stranglehold Dems have in Dem land. I believe in both the west coast and NE are especially vernicle in this regard.
On this blog, we have readers in places like Washington state. They vote Repub. Repubs are about maxed out there, but, if they have a group which subtracts from the Dems, then they can win. Imagine getting that lunatic Murray out of office! Look at Maine, they elected an independent for Senator. He’s really a Dem, but, he had to run as an independent. They also have a Repub, but, she’s really a Dem, too. But, it’s easy to see where a third party there can destroy the Dem party of Maine. NH is the same. I think Vermont is hopeless. But, Mass? If they just took 5% from the Dems, Repubs can win the Senate, easily. RI, Connecticut, even NY has 3rd parties and independents. Take a coordinated 3rd party to traditionally Dem held areas. Win!
But, the effort has to be coordinated. And, we must do this. Our nation cannot stand under another Obama.