Obama Ahead In Pennsylvania Assuming……..

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Heh, I picked this up from TownHallA new poll (pdf) was released recently by The Franklin & Marshall College.

It states that Obama’s lead in Penn has steadily been decreasing since June when he had a 12 point lead.  Now, F&M says Obama has a 4 pt lead.  “The president’s advantage is the same among likely voters, 49% to 45%, with 4% undecided.”

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This would be good news for Romney if the election were to be held in February.  Still, this poll is worth looking at.  Let’s dig a little deeper.

In Penn, the demographics are Democratic  51.00%  Republican 36.95%  Unaffiliated 5.82% Minor Parties 6.22%.  But, this is never the turnout.  In fact, even in 2008, Obama won by 10 points 44%-54%.  Here is the splits for the respondents to the polling.

RegPARTY. Are you currently registered as a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or as something else?
37% Republican
50% Democrat

11% Independent
2% Something else

So, if we’re to believe this poll, Obama would have a higher percentage turnout than he did in 2008.  By three points!  I know of no one person, or entity of any kind predicting a higher turnout for Obama than in 2008, anywhere.  By all reckoning, the turnout for Obama will be lower.  Even if the turn out is the same, then the 4% lead reported by the poll evaporates to 1%.  But, if the turnout is lower, as most expect, then Pennsylvania is a toss-up, depending on the turnout.  The independents will have a huge role to play in the state for the presidential election.  But, one can easily see how this state is now in play.

Speaking of states in play, Bill Clinton did a swing in Minnesota because it, too, is now in play.  I haven’t had time to look at any specific polls from there, yet. 

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3 Responses to Obama Ahead In Pennsylvania Assuming……..

  1. philjourdan says:

    The decline of Obama is not a straight line, but geometric. I give it 50/50 that Romney wins Pennsylvania.

    Everyone is looking at the red states that went blue in 08. Which if Obama was as strong now as he was then, would be a good indicator. But he is not. And Pa has swung back and forth more times than most states. It is the PAs and Wisconsins that are the true swing states – in red times. And this is a red time.

    Your projection of 300+ for Romney is a lock if Pa goes Romney. He can still get there without it, but it will be harder.

  2. kim2ooo says:

    I found this interesting:
    “But a Republican yesterday noted that at this point in 2008, Democrats held a 134,774-vote lead in Florida. As of yesterday. Democrats led by less than 41,000 – a nearly 70 percent drop”

    http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/31/Dem-Early-Vote-Lead-Down-In-FL

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