The Electoral Vote Wild Cards ——- Something All people Should be Aware Of

 

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These are the state flags of Maine and Nebraska.  These two are oddities of the US electoral dispensing.  They award electoral votes by congressional districts.  That is to say, instead of statewide winner take all voting, they vote by their districts and award electoral votes in that manner, with the two extra going to the general statewide voting.  These things almost never matter because the states don’t have much congressional representation.   (population based)  Still, if this is to be a tight race, it’s worth noting.  Here’s what RCP has to say about these……

Nebraska, like Maine, allocates its electoral college votes by congressional district.  Unlike Maine, that split has actually had actual, real-world ramifications once: Barack Obama narrowly carried Nebraska’s second district in 2008, and was awarded one electoral vote from the state.  The district comprises Omaha and its suburbs, and contains most of Nebraska’s small African American population.  Of course, few expect for the race to be as wide-open this time as it was in 2008, and Team Obama doesn’t seem to be working Nebraska this time around.  If the race shifts back Obama’s direction, this district could again be in play, but for now it remains on the periphery of possibilities for the president.

It sort of mattered.  Obama didn’t need that one electoral vote to win.  And, according to the people who are suppose to know, he’s not going to get it this time around.  But, there’s no polling data.  Maine is a funny place.  Olympia Snowe is retiring from the Senate.  She’s always ran as a Repub.  But, she only sometimes voted as a Repub.  Susan Collins is like her ideological twin.  Another RINO.  In the race to replace Snowe, Angus King is running as an independent, but, he’s a leftist.  He’s gotten huge sums of money from the likes of Bloomberg.  It looks like he’s going to win.  If the Dems actually ran a competent person for the senate, they’d have a Repub as the next senator.   Weird, I know, but that’s Maine.  They have 2 congressional districts.  One very left, the other much more conservative.  Here’s what RCP says about this…….

Maine is one of two states that allocates its electoral college votes by congressional district:  The winner of each of the two congressional districts receives one elector, while the statewide winner receives an additional two electors.  Absent a major change in the national dynamics, Barack Obama will win the two statewide electors, as well as the elector for the 1st congressional district.  The 2nd district, however, is a different beast entirely.  The rural northern portions of the state are much more conservative than the remainder of the state.  The district was made marginally more Republican in redistricting; Bush came within 17,000 votes of Kerry under the new lines, according to data compiled by POLIDATA, and provided courtesy of the Cook Political Report.   Romney could run better than Bush here because he presently runs about five points net ahead of Bush nationally among whites; this district is almost all white.  While we don’t have any independent polling data here, if the district follows the national trends, this could end up a very close electoral contest on Election Day.

If Maine’s second district does end up voting for Romney, it actually provides a few scenarios where Romney could end up with 269 electoral votes. Two scenarios in particular stand out.  In both instances, Romney wins the McCain states, plus Indiana, Florida, and North Carolina.  In one scenario, Romney also wins Colorado, Iowa, Ohio and the second district.  In another, he also wins New Hampshire, Virginia, Wisconsin and Iowa.  If this were to transpire, the House of Representatives would decide the Electoral College winner, with each state receiving one vote.  In this circumstance, Romney would almost certainly be elected President.

A tie in the electoral college goes to Romney. 

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1 Response to The Electoral Vote Wild Cards ——- Something All people Should be Aware Of

  1. DirkH says:

    In a decisive move, Obama campaign changes slogan from “Forward.” to “FORWARD!”.
    http://twitchy.com/2012/10/27/heh-obama-counts-on-the-power-of-the-exclamation-point-to-move-campaign-forward/

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