Lol, The Hand Waving About Climate Gate and Hockey sticks

 

image

Well, Myles Allen gave a presentation which demonstrated his ignorance about the issues of Climate Gate, Hide the Decline, and our dendro sticks in general.  He further antagonizes people with his write up at Bishop Hill.  He’s essentially stating that these issues aren’t relevant and wasting our time when we could be talking about important stuffs.  Alien

My fear is that by keeping the public focused on irrelevancies, you are excluding them from the discussion of what we should do about climate change should the decade-to-decade global warming trend observed since the 1970s continue and turn out, as current evidence suggests, to be largely caused by the increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.

See, so the “hockey stick” doesn’t matter any more.  Well, probably the person most central to these issues is Steve McIntyre.  He’s got a post on this as well.  Anthony has a perspective, too.

Alarmists have to take this tactic.  I’ll run down just a brief incomplete history.  The hockey stick was a prominent and powerful visual cue to make people believe in CAGW.  As Steve McIntyre writes, “……it was presented to the public, at least in Canada, not as an incidental argument, but as one of the major arguments, particularly for action right that instant.”

Well, it wasn’t just Canada.  It was seen on the news, in text books and prominently displayed by the IPCC.  When  McIntyre got involved with this, the hockey sticks were very relevant to the alarmist argument.  Recall that it eliminated the MWP and LIA, which countered the argument of natural variability.  And, the hockey wars commenced.  McIntyre and friends would show the hockey sticks, which ever iteration, to be of shabby statistical work.  Much of the alarmist community vigorously defended not only the hs, but, also the people who created them. 

Even before Climate Gate, the alarmist advocates were moving away from the importance of the hockey-stick as a poster image of why we need to take action.  They were taking hits in too many other places to sustain this one part.  But, that didn’t stop them from proclaiming McIntyre enemy number one.  They were very spiteful, to say the least.  Then Climate Gate explodes.  McIntyre was vindicated.  It didn’t just show that the dendrophrenology was based on shabby science, it showed that the people creating and supporting the hockey sticks knew this.  It also demonstrated that they resorted to “tricks” to present the image they needed.  It showed some awful personal behavior and their ethics were in high question, and still are. 

Alarmists are quick to point out that they don’t need the hockey-stick for they CAGW hypothesis.  And, in part, this is true.  And, the skeptical community has shot so many holes in the dendro quasi-science that stick is only held together by a bandage called “belief“.   So, is Climate Gate, hockey-sticks, and dendro important?  Or, is it irrelevant as Myles Allen suggests?

Here’s why it is important.  The scores of scientists who supported, approved, avowed, and produced these hockey-sticks, from our friends at RealClimate to the CRU in England, are seen has having supported a faux science. They were all, either so incompetent as to not check the veracity of the work(in spite of many stating it wasn’t valid) or, they knew this work was fallacious and pushed it on the public anyway.

GRAPH: Briffa's reconstruction was affected by one freak tree.

Either way you look at it, there is no credibility in their statements;  not Mann’s, not Briffa’s not Schmidt’s, not Jones’, none of them have a shred of credibility.  Not just the ones who did the dendro, but the people who supported them, as well.  

 

 

Last two graphs are from The Skeptics Handbook II.

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10 Responses to Lol, The Hand Waving About Climate Gate and Hockey sticks

  1. Latitude says:

    I thought it was only 10 trees???….don’t matter
    Briffa said his reconstructions fell apart because of rising CO2 levels…..thus the splice on the end…
    Moron was never measuring temps…he was measuring CO2 levels all along

    • suyts says:

      Right, I get the many versions of the same graph mixed up as well. I just threw the graphs in as eye candy. 12, 10, 1….. none of that matters the whole supposition is in error. Mann, Briffa, Jones….. they all got it wrong.

      • Latitude says:

        We both know you can’t get temps from a tree….
        ..but what you can get is growth seasons…..long, short, medium…the three bears

        CO2 has a bigger effect on that..more than anything….less water, less dehydration, longer growth season….

        I think Briffa was not measuring temp increase…he was measuring CO2 increase all along

        there’s something in the works with coral paleoclimatology/reconstructions that will be out soon that mirrors this…………

      • suyts says:

        Let me know when that comes out…… dendro is dead, on to other mindless assertions about thermometers…… 🙂

  2. Scott says:

    The existence of the hockey stick is absolute critical to CAGW. Basically, its existence functions as the equivalent of a “negative control” or “blank” for temperatures. It’s there to try to remove any ideas of longer-term fluctuations in temperatures, on the scale of up to a 1000 years.

    -Scott

    • suyts says:

      I think they all go down on this. They’re waving their hands trying to draw attention away from the sticks as best they can. And it’s because it is so damning. Not so much that a few of scientists got it wrong, but that so many lined up behind them and essentially told the public that it was a factual representation of our past temps.

  3. Jim Masterson says:

    I remember when the hockey stick graph first appeared it was obvious that they had pasted the modern temperature record onto the proxy graph. You could see the proxy graph behind (and under) the temperature graph. It appeared to me that the temperature slope was rising about three times as fast as the proxy slope. If they had normalized the proxy data to the temperature data (applied a three-fold gain and adjusted vertically to realign), then the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age would reappear. The MWP temps would at least match the current temps.

    Of course, the part of the proxy data overlapping the temperature record disappeared in later versions of the hockey stick. It was obvious that it caused some problems. I’ve never been able to find those original hockey stick graphs, so I’ve only got my memory to rely on.

    Jim

    • suyts says:

      It’s funny how time changes perspective. I remember when it came out, but I didn’t really concern myself with it much. It wouldn’t be but a few years later that I realized people took it serious. I kept thinking to myself this is exactly the same graph all of the population nuts kept peddling.

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