Well, yes….. and no, and yes, and no……. I keep reading more extrapolations and interpretations of Foster and Rahmsdorf’s if it weren’t for ENSO, we’d be warming! And, that’s probably true, but not in the way they’re rationalizing. Climatecrocks seem to be adopting this bit of sophistry.
Our ENSO doesn’t work in a vacuum. It doesn’t just randomly swing from positive to negative and back again. It interacts with many things and does many things. A couple of the things is does is it gathers heat and energy and disperses heat and energy. It doesn’t just magically occur.
But, it doesn’t hurt to look at the data. If you go to NOAA’s ENSO data table you see monthly values for ENSO 3.4. The argument is, if not for La Nina in the last few years, we’d be hotting up!
What I did was create a sum of the values for each year and graphed them. Before anyone screams “cherry pick!” I’ll openly admit that one can slide the start point from just about any location to give any trend they wish.
I used 1998 because that’s often a reference point for many. But, here we see very little trend, and it’s a slight warming one. What gives? Again, you can slide the start point to just about anywhere and show what ever one wishes to show. (Hat tip to Foster and Rahmsdorf and John Nielsen-Gammon for showing me just how effective this can be!!)
But, wouldn’t the argument cut both ways, anyway? If ENSO is the reason why global temps are down what makes us believe they wouldn’t increase global temps? Let’s look at the period with the most dramatic temp
adjustments err… I mean increases…..
Here’s ENSO’s annual values during the same period.
Uhmm……. Well, now what, people! ……. which is it? Was it just ENSO which created our global warming scare? If ENSO pulled the recent years down, …….. okay, let’s play along, the explain this! Morons.
When not pretending to be scientists, Foster and Rahmsdorf and John Nielsen-Gammon are often thought to be auditioning for the scarecrow part in the Wizard of Oz.
My thanks to WUWT commenter, agfosterjr for providing the impetus of this post.