An Appeal For The Science

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lol, the image is from http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/images/treeringsections.jpg  Stories, indeed.  Someone has told a whopper and everyone is blithely ignoring the utter falsehood of the story.

Most readers here check in on WUWT on a fairly regular basis.  Once again, we see Mike Mann as a topic of conversation.  Mann and his insipidly stupid tree rings.  I’ve asked there if anyone can produce the work of science which allows for reading temperatures from tree rings to get an annual temp average.  And, I’m making the same appeal here.

As we’ve discussed on this blog a few times….. Dividing By Zero, Brain Surgeon Was His First Choice, and A Test In Determining A Hemispheric Temp Mean/, there isn’t a way to determine what the annual or decadal temp mean is by the rings used in their sampling.  Even ignoring all of the factors involved in tree growth, and assuming one can tease a temp signal out of these rings.  (I maintain one can not.) We don’t know what the temps were during the rest of the year.  The growth season for these particular trees is only 6-8 weeks out of the year.

Someone please show me the work of science that discusses what the temps were outside of the ring growth period and how they believe they can estimate what the temps were without growth from the rings.

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28 Responses to An Appeal For The Science

  1. Latitude says:

    You know…….
    It’s the exact same problem we have with Coral paleoclimatology……Corals bleach or don’t grow when it’s hot….they bleach or don’t grow when it’s cold…..
    It’s the three bears again…all they an tell you is when conditions were acceptable for them to grow..they can’t even tell you when conditions were unacceptable for growth

    • suyts says:

      Exactly. I haven’t ventured into the oceans paleoclimatology, yet, because it wouldn’t matter until we rid ourselves of this stupid posit that we know what the decadal mean temp of the globe or NH was by looking at some tree rings.

  2. Latitude says:

    I think it’s referred to as WAG……LOL

    The biggest problem is not trying to get a temp…..but if you’re trying to reconstruct a ‘climate’…you need to know when….they can’t tell you when
    Was that 2-3 months growth in Apr/May/Jun….because it was a mild winter, early spring…..
    …or was it in Aug/Sept/Oct because there was a really cold winter and really late spring
    With corals, did they not grow because that summer got really hot fast…..or because it stayed too cool….
    Again with corals…..we can only look at the survivors….just like trees

    • Mike Davis says:

      It is obvious there is no “S” involved in their WAG! during a mild year within the best growth parameters a tree could grow from the time the ground is warm enough to the time it gets to cold to continue growing. Unless it get hotter than the optimal growth range. I saw that with the trees on my property. sometimes they would also start to regrow when the temperatures dropped below the stress point, leaving two growth period in one year.

      • Latitude says:

        Mike, exactly the same problem with corals….exactly
        You can have two growth periods in the same year.
        Are those two short winter bands because of cold weather?…or two growth periods because of hot weather?
        They can have huge bands, and that still doesn’t tell you temps. It could be short, extremely cold winters……………….

  3. HankH says:

    If someone can produce the methodology that allows for temperatures to be teased out of tree rings, I too will be very much interested in reading it.

    A bigger problem with this whole Mann dendochronology thing is even if there were some sound methodology (I don’t believe there is), I’m bothered by the fact that Mann picked only a subset of trees that agreed with his hypothesis, giving undue weight to just one tree. Then, when none of the trees agreed, he spliced in an adjusted temperature series to hide the gross divergence without explanation. In my work, a “trick” like that would get my research work handed to me in a trash bag, just before loosing my job. Is it any wonder why people in other branches of science are the biggest skeptics of how climate science is conducted?

    • Latitude says:

      Hank, I know that you know that we both know it’s not call paleotemperatureology….
      Paleoclimatology…..and the best you can hope for is climate, not temperature

      • HankH says:

        It’s not? LOL

        I think even climate is a tall order for trees. With disease, changing population of animals, fires, odd regional weather patterns that stunt early or late seasonal growth, changes to insolation from changes to the canopy, and a whole host of other non-climate factors, I don’t think they are much good for paleoanything other than their original role as paleo-clocks.

        • suyts says:

          No doubt…….

          A growth increment represents hundreds of internal and external variables put into an equation with only one answer – tree survival and growth.” And, “The four dominant environmental features accounting for most of the variation in ring width are precipitation, light (quality and quantity), temperature (as it moves away from 70 – 85°F optimum), and relative humidity (micro-site and boundary layer). These features influence the tree instantaneously, but the tree’s response will include biological adjustments which occur over various lengths of time. The lag time between sense and final response activities can lead to incomplete or inappropriate reactions to major changes.”

          http://warnell.forestry.uga.edu/service/library/index.php3?docID=172&docHistory%5B%5D=2&docHistory%5B%5D=21

        • Latitude says:

          actually it’s just Dendrochronology….which means trying to count tree rings really really good…..LOL
          I agree….all it can tell you is about how old that tree is…..pretty close

        • Mike Davis says:

          Phrenology has a better reputation!

    • suyts says:

      lol, paleotemperatureology or paleotemperaturenurermology or paleotemperaturephrenology?

      • Latitude says:

        Here’s the funniest part about tree rings or corals for that matter….
        …they tried to use them as a proxy for global temps
        but invalidated them themselves by claiming the MWP and LIA were local events

        So obviously you can’t use stationary NH tree rings as a proxy for global temps……

      • suyts says:

        True…… the discussion is so circular it makes no sense.

        • Latitude says:

          Speaking of circular….
          Connally is making a fool of himself….knowing that WUWT is the most read climate blog….for the whole world to see
          I don’t understand people like him and Julienne that do that…..

          I think it’s funny as hell to make Julienne blow a gasket and loose her cool like she does…
          ..for the whole world to see…and she falls for it every time

          Don’t they realize how they look when they do that?

        • suyts says:

          lol, yes he is…..one more stupid response to me like he just did and he’s going to get both barrels.

        • Latitude says:

          SINCE WHEN DID YOU EVER FIRE A WARMING SHOT!

          ….you’re getting old and soft on me

        • suyts says:

          lol, I’m just baiting…. his dismissive response was because he doesn’t have an answer. If he tries to reasonably engage with me, I’ll expose his ignorance even further.

        • Mike Davis says:

          Careful James you will ruin your reputation by letting the Water Closet get to you.

  4. suyts says:

    Lol, WC is just another ideologue, entirely out of his depth.

  5. vergelich says:

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