Brain Surgeon Was His First Choice

Sigh, well, it’s a start……..

Tree rings may underestimate climate response to volcanic eruptions: study

Our friend Mike Mann has just discovered part of what many of us have been saying for quite some time.  I wrote about this last November, Dividing by zero.  Now, Mikey is still lost in his delusional world, but a brief moment of clarity has escaped this madness.  Mike has now realized,

Some climate cooling caused by past volcanic eruptions may not be evident in tree-ring reconstructions of temperature change because large enough temperature drops lead to greatly shortened or even absent growing seasons, according to climate researchers, who compared tree-ring temperature reconstructions with model simulations of past temperature changes. 

This is the first step to understanding the fallacy of these chronologies.  Here, they’ve just found out that if a tree doesn’t have a growing season, no ring will appear!  Surprised  Yes, this is a shocking revelation.  So, if there is no ring, there is no information.  Mike continues, and here we see an interesting refusal to confront the implications of this revelation

Inferring temperature changes required going to locations either at the tree line caused by elevation or at the boreal tree line, the northern most place where the trees will grow.

For these trees, growth is almost entirely controlled by temperature, rather than precipitation, soil nutrients or sunlight, yielding a good proxy record of surface temperature changes.

“The problem is that these trees are so close to the threshold for growth, that if the temperature drops just a couple of degrees, there is little or no growth and a loss of sensitivity to any further cooling. In extreme cases, there may be no growth ring at all,” said Mann. “If no ring was formed in a given year, that creates a further complication, introducing an error in the chronology established by counting rings back in time.”

Of course, rational people understand that every year, almost like clockwork, the temperature drops a “couple of degrees” a the trees exit the growing season.  When this occurs, the trees rings lose the retention of the temperature signal.  The trees do not record -5°C vs -20°C.  It simply isn’t in the ring.  I don’t know why this is a hard concept for so many people.  Mann understands he needs a ring to get information, but he doesn’t understand the rings are limited to relaying information from only the growing season.  Maybe in another 12-14 years he’ll come to realize this.  Maybe not. 

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14 Responses to Brain Surgeon Was His First Choice

  1. gator69 says:

    We cannot trust historical thermometer readings, and must constantly ‘adjust’ them to get the correct reading, but Bristlecone tree rings are the gold standard of temperature data!

    Love the cover of his new book, check out the massive error bars they now acknowledge.

  2. mrsean2k says:

    If they don’t show response in the correct way, calibrated against the “signal” of a flattened MWP and sharp 20thC rise, we know they are faulty proxies and they can therefore be ignored. Or the faulty parts trimmed.


  3. Latitude says:

    A. Some modelers disqualified Mann’s tree rings, because the rings didn’t match what the computer games said
    B. Trees don’t make good temp proxies because they have an unmeasurable extreme warm bias.

    …did I miss anything?

  4. Mike Davis says:

    I guess Mann does not realize that tree lines move. Actually growth areas shrink and expand with temperatures. During warmer periods trees at what is now an extreme location were competing with other plants. In the north there is evidence that tree lines were many miles North and we are still finding trees being pushed from below glaciers that grew where ic is today.
    Sorry Mikey You are wrong on all counts.

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