We hear it over and over again. Now that the temps have quit warming. In spite of about 15 years of flat line temps in spite of ever increasing atmospheric CO2, we are scolded about more time is necessary to confirm the null hypothesis.
Quickly, and a down and dirty articulation of the hypothesis as I understand it. Atmospheric CO2 is a primary driver in our global temps, and as thus, a driver in our climate conditions. The null hypothesis would simply be to state, “No, it is not.”
Hmm….. 30 years of increasing atmospheric CO2 against a backdrop of declining or flat-lining temps. That’s a tall order seeing how we’re coming out of the LIA!
Another quick and dirty review: what happens with CO2. The earth radiates energy back out to space in the form of IR. CO2 absorbs the IR and re-emits the energy. Some of it back towards the earth. Thus, warming the earth to catastrophic consequences. The more atmospheric CO2 the more we’re warmed. This is the hypothesis. Again, the null would be to say, “No, it isn’t. There’s more to it and CO2 is not that significant.” We don’t need specifics as to why the hypothesis isn’t right, we simply need to show it isn’t correct and someone else can come up with another hypothesis about our climate. Again, we’re told we need at least 30 years to confirm the null hypothesis…….. Okay…….. what about this?…….
Here is 36 years of declining temps against a backdrop of increasing atmospheric CO2. Of course, I could have extended this well beyond 36 years. In fact, I will……. here is 50 years! I could go longer….. but I think 50 years of declining temps while atmospheric CO2 increases is enough to state the null hypothesis is confirmed.
As usual, I’m grateful to Paul for allowing the free use of his abilities. Don’t forget to click on his donate button! http://www.woodfortrees.org
I am also grateful for Steve’s new anti-groupy, Dikran Marsupial for giving me the impetus to look. I do some of my best work with 5 or 6 beers ins me!
Addendum! Because I’ve been having such great fun with this, I’ve decided to go 70 years with ever increasing atmospheric CO2 and a declining temp trend…….. Please note the temps started to increase at the end of the graph. For those of us who bother to read or listen to the stories of our elders, 1935 marked the height of the Great Depression. As shown by recent events, recessions and depressions cause a decrease in CO2 emissions. Still at the height, temps started to rise and continued to rise afterward. Indeed, for the next 65 years they did so. Until they stopped. Yes, the last graph is cherry picked. But, then so are most of the graphs we see today showing an increase in temps. Still, it cannot pass notice that for 70 years, in spite of a general increase in atmospheric CO2 we actually had declining temps. Even though we were emerging from the LIA.