And then there were 5

As most of you know, Jon Huntsman is the latest to drop out.  Though he had some good conservative economic goals and principles, his campaign never caught fire.  He had several handicaps which he could never get out from under.  Coming out of the gate in the campaign he managed to infuriate the climate skeptics.  I doubt if the impact will be fully appreciated, but, I think this doomed his chances.  He had also worked for Obama which regardless of motivation, wasn’t going to be seen as an accomplishment.  It wasn’t so much that these things that worked against him, it was his dismissive attitude when asked.  For social conservatives, he wasn’t going to, and didn’t try, to make any headway with them.

So, what does this development mean?  Well, not much.  All of the Huntsman voters will move to Romney, both of them.  In an ever so slight manner, this helps Romney solidify his base.  There is an interesting polling event occurring at the moment.  There are two separate polls showing some very different results.  You can read about them here and here.  The one listed first was conducted on the 15th, by RealClearPolitics , and the second was conduction on the 10th-13th by Reuters/Ipsos.

Romney       37   32                                                                                                                                                                                 Gingrich       21    12
Paul              14   16                                                                                                                                                                                         Santorum    13    16
Perry             5      6
Huntsman     6     3

I’m calling bs.  I don’t know which one, but I’m guessing RCP.  Gingrich didn’t gain 9 pts in the last couple of days.  And I don’t hear or feel that he’s gaining any momentum.  But, other than that, the polls are pretty close.  Checking Fox before posting, I see they have a lead story with the same title, and sigh, there’s going to be another debate tonight.  Can anyone tell me why we’re still being subjected to these debates?  What possible good is this doing?  I believe politically, this many debates were a mistake.

Going forward, look for Perry to be the next casualty in the primary.  He’s hoping for a South Carolina surprise, but unless the rest of the pack fall on their faces, he won’t get over 10%.  Paul will get his, Romney is looking to win South Carolina, and will unless he does something massively stupid, which, he won’t.  The only real question in SC is between Gingrich and Santorum.  When some of the candidates look back, they’re going to realize they didn’t play this right.  There are two voting blocks engaged in the Gingrich/Santorum race.  The social conservatives and the anybody-but-Romney camp. (and Paul by the fact that they’re not voting for him either.)   If you add Huntsman’s to Romney and then add Gingrich, Santorum, and Perry minus a few who would go to both Paul and Romney if their candidate got out, then it’s a very competitive race.  It would break down like Romney 40%, Paul 20% and (Whomever) about 40%.

What the weak head with strongest bias rules, Is pride, the never-failing vice of fools. ————-  Alexander Pope

I do hope that Jon Huntsman takes a rest, and then actively supports the Republican nominee, regardless of who gains the nomination.

 

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13 Responses to And then there were 5

  1. suyts says:

    @#$#%$@#%!@! formatting…… I’ll try to fix….

  2. kelly liddle says:

    http://americanresearchgroup.com/ This mob gives different numbers again and is Jan 11-12 . But what is most interesting is that in both the polls South Carolina and Florida Mitt Romney runs away with the womens vote with the men he does not actually do so well. So the other candidates have to get the womens vote or they are toast.

  3. Bruce says:

    Be interesting if one of the pollsters does a poll with option of “Someone Else”. I have this sneaking feeling Mr Someone Else could just be the leading candidate.

    • suyts says:

      The poll Kelly linked has other at 2% and undecided at 7%. They’ve given up on looking for Mr. Right, so they’re going to settle for Mr. Right Enough. My impression is the length of the campaign season has wore much of the electorate down. They’re ready to make a decision and back them. They know the real campaign is going to be messy, costly, and energy draining. If Romney decisively takes SC and Florida, I don’t see how or why any others would stay in, with the exception of Paul. I think he’s in it for the long haul, which is actually good for Republicans. If he were to get out now and attempt a Libertarian campaign or actively campaign for the Libertarian candidate, it would all but ensure Obama’s reelection.

  4. I’m wondering who Romney will pick as a running mate.

    • suyts says:

      If he was smart he’d go after Marc Rubio. Slam dunk if he does.

      • Latitude says:

        ….agree 100%

        You’re right, we’re all old and tired, and over this mess……..

        It’s going to be Romney, Mr. Right Enough.

      • suyts says:

        Yeh, we’ve bloodied each other enough, it’s time to put the experience of the sparring to proper use, and go after the loons. Yes, it will probably be Romney……. but, as the polls in SC show, there’s some huge swings still going on.

        If its going to be Romney, if he needs to pick Rubio….. that will energize the conservative base, and split the Latino vote. He would also contrast very well against Biden. If Romney picks Rubio, repubs win it going away.

  5. Latitude says:

    Mr. President, please don’t play the race card in 2012
    Congressman Allen B. West

    “According to a Washington Post poll in September 2011, the proportion of black Americans with a “strongly positive” view of President Obama has slipped from 83 percent to 58 percent.”

    …the 10% I keep telling you about

    • suyts says:

      Yep. I think the conservative support for Cain got a lot of people thinking. Allen West is fearless. I can’t tell you how many times he’s brought a smile to my face. Straight talk!

  6. Doug Allen says:

    James,
    I followed you from WUWT to here! As for “settled science,” let me quote-
    “And all who told it added something new, and all who heard it, made enlargements too.”
    Alexander Pope

    And as for Huntsman-
    “Honor and shame from no condition rise. Act well your part: there all the honor lies.”
    Alexander Pope

    Though a liberal, I found Hunstsman honorable, and the only Republican candidate I could vote for, though I like many parts of Ron Paul’s message. I live in SC and will still vote for Huntsman in the primary this Saturday.

    • suyts says:

      Doug, welcome. In spite of my few posts which addressed Huntsman, I liked him. Like you, I found him to be sincere. I just never understood why his candidacy occurred. The only way for him to have made any headway would have been if Romney would have made a huge error, and Mitt wasn’t going to do that.

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