Most Recent Iowa Poll

The most Iowa poll is out.  Gingrich is continuing his free fall.  He’s just got too much baggage.  Santorum seems to be the main beneficiary, though Perry has found some footing.  Romney is still the man to beat, but he’s not picking up momentum like one might have expected.  Conservatives are still very wary of Romney.  Paul’s ascension seems to have leveled off.  And I don’t think he’ll ever get much more than 20% in just about any state.  Huntsman is campaigning in New Hampshire.  The ‘hows’ and ‘whys’ are pretty obvious, but I’ll briefly go over them.  When Perry insisted on shooting himself in the foot, the conservatives, both fiscal and moral, jumped to Cain because he was seen as the most likely conservative runner.  Cain’s abject failure to adequately respond to attacks on his character had the moral conservatives running away from Cain and towards anybody buy Romney.  For a brief moment in time, they ran to Gingrich, mostly because of name recognition.  But, then they remembered that Gingrich is neither morally or fiscally conservative.  Paul received a little bump from the fiscal conservatives, but the moral conservatives moved to the only viable conservative candidate left, Santorum.  Perry got some back, but that’s because he hasn’t been in any recent debates.  It remains to be seen if Perry can use this in any manner.  Bachmann can’t really slide any further down.  She’s in a neighboring state and she’s only got 6% and she’s not going to do well in New Hampshire.  New Hampshire typically leans toward moderate Republicans.  Which leaves me wondering why Huntsman is still in the race.  Romney has the moderate vote locked up. 

The way I see this race shaping up, Romney will continue his “no mistakes” strategy.  And, he’ll continue to carry the moderate Republican vote.  Paul, obviously will carry the Libertarian part of the GOP.  Santorum should gain momentum from this, but he’ll continue to be hindered if Perry and Bachmann remain in the race.  Newt will receive the votes of party members who are dissatisfied with the remaining field.  In the end, I see this as turning out to be a 3 way race.  (Assuming the Republicans don’t do something incredibly stupid from here on out.)  And will shape up to be a very good race with great contrasts of the remaining candidates.  Ron Paul, regardless of the press coverage, will retain about 20% of the block.  He has a long history and any supporter of Paul’s already knows about his odd perspectives.  Romney will continue to dominate the moderate block.  Santorum needs to make noise. But, I’m not sure he’s got the kind of fire necessary. We’ll see.  As long as Bachmann and Perry remain in the race, they will continue to split the conservative block.  As Santorum moves up, look for unfavorable press coverage, as the LSM has attacked every surging conservative since the start of the campaign season.     

Percent of Likely Voters Dec 30 compared to poll Dec 3.

Mitt Romney             23  19  

Ron Paul                    21   19   

Rick Santorum         15     6      

Rick Perry                14     10 

Newt Gingrich         13     28

Michele Bachmann   6        7

Jon Huntsman          2        2

Undecided              10       12