I’m going to break my arm patting my back and Lat’s.
The other day I posted this……
This is too damned funny. Here we are, using the last ten years of BEST’s data.
But,…. but,…… BEST proved…..
Least squares trend line; slope = -0.00351819 per year
Well, heck. Yep, hotting right on up there.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/best/from:2001.75/plot/best/from:2001.75/trend
https://suyts.wordpress.com/2011/10/28/best-proves-that-the-earth-is-warming/
If you click on the link you can see where Lat encourages posting this all over the place. He did. Today, http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2055191/Scientists-said-climate-change-sceptics-proved-wrong-accused-hiding-truth-colleague.html
Anthony and Steve have carried the Mail story already. I’m sure we’ll hear more about it later.
Thanks Lat, we don’t have any idea how much this impacted the discussion. But, it did impact it.
With the double dip La Nina and -PDO in process isn’t it going to be cooling for a couple decades?
Well, the PDO should impact the arctic, but, who knows how long the La Nina will be going? But, yeh, I think it will the temps will continue as they have for some time. But, I really such at predictions. AAM, its great seeing you here!
Excellent Skeletor.
Did JC actually ask to have her name removed from the papers or was she just saying she was distancing herself from the results. There is a difference, the first is action needed and the second is just a show.
It’s never a good thing when your co-author, on all four papers, wants to distance themselves from the final paper….
…that usually stops a paper from being submitted at all
..but then, this is climate science
Muller hid it from her on purpose….because he knew the facts…… and knew she would not consent to submitting the papers as they are written
Her name is still on them…..that gives her leverage
Lat:
I see it as a Zebra changing from stripes to plaid! There is historical evidence it is just a cosmetic application.
She’s in damage control mode at the moment…… http://judithcurry.com/2011/10/30/mail-on-best/
I read that and what I am getting resembles a work by M.C. Escher
http://www.mcescher.com/
Mike Davis says:
October 30, 2011 at 7:28 am
Did JC actually ask to have her name removed from the papers
Personally, I want it left on. It keeps her having reason to distance herself. The gift that keeps on giving.
I just read her site, “work is great, publicity sucks” was my impression of what she said.
Let’s see what happens after the current conference!
This entire charade has been very revealing about many of the so called sceptics.
The science story is just the same old same old…..
..I mean, what did anyone really expect from Muller in the first place
The big story is hiding it from his co-author.
Dr. Curry’s name is second on every one of those papers.
Not consulting with her, not even a short email, shows what a slimy deviate he really is……….
The flatline trend is caused by the outlier April 2010 sample; leave it out and you get 1.4K/century, basically the same as the long term trend from everything else:
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/best/from:2001/mean:12/plot/best/from:2001/trend/plot/best/from:2001/to:2010.2/trend
More at WUWT when they get round to moderating it!
Cheers
Paul
Yeh, its a strange dip. But, that’s trends and numbers for ya…….. Paul, did you have any knowledge as to whether or not they plan on updating their data base? It seems an awful strange place to just end the data.
Paul Clark,
Yes, one does need to drop data to make the case for global warming. We’ve all been seeing all sorts of playing with data. ‘Global warming’ is replete with data manipulation.
Cheers.
But Paul, a spike is a spike and it is what it is…..
Leave out the spikes in the ice core data and you get completely different result too………..
But BEST flag this sample as very low confidence, presumably because it was incomplete at the time they ran the analysis; it really shouldn’t be included in any trend. I’ve now added the confidence interval as well as well so you can see this:
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/best-upper/from:2009/plot/best-lower/from:2009/plot/best/from:2009
I don’t know if they’re going to update it, WFT will track it automatically if they do. I think after today they might 😉
lol, indeed. But, that’s ok, I’ve low confidence in much of their data…….https://suyts.wordpress.com/2011/10/21/is-that-the-best-they-can-do/
They made some huge leaps.
Paul, how did you get the data to load? I’m still having problems with the size of the file.
I fetched the monthly analysis data from here http://berkeleyearth.org/downloads/analysis-data.zip – quite small and a sane format
Or you could just use http://www.woodfortrees.org/data/best !
lol, I was trying to download the big zip file and it was maddening. But, yes, I see no point in being redundant. Your app is a huge time saver.
lol, Paul, you’ve just opened a huge can of worms!
Did you run the land vs total globe plots?
Yes, and it’s not pretty:
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/best/from:1979/mean:12/offset:-0.60/plot/wti/from:1979/mean:12/plot/best/from:1979/trend/offset:-0.60/plot/wti/from:1979/trend
WTI (my average of 4 land-ocean datasets): 1.5K/century
BEST: 2.7K/century
This is the real news here, not this 10 year + unfinished data stuff.
Cheers
Paul
uk oh………………
I’m going to get up, get another cup of coffee, and look again to be sure I just saw what I think I did….
BRB
lol, well, ignoring BEST for the moment ……. all of your new land plots have a more noticeable trend vs land/ocean data sets.
Yes they do:
Source Trend °C/century
BEST 2.79
GISTEMP DTS 2.06
CRUTEM3 2.25
RSS-land 2.25
UAH-land 2.01
(from http://www.woodfortrees.org/notes#best)
I don’t understand it either, but note the slight irony that GISTEMP~=UAH and CRU=RSS. Who’da thunk it?
Arrhhggg!!!! So little time today….. so much to cover!
Anything with thirty years of temperature data is not going to be pretty and there should be many thirty year periods throughout history with similiar or greater trends both positive and negative.
That’s not what’s got my interest piqued. Consider the Land vs Sea angle.
What, Garbage vs worse garbage? 😉
There’s so much being made out of tenths of a degree. But the commotion doesn’t add up to much when compared to what has happened in the past. It was warmer on earth 1000 years ago than it is now. These tenths of a degree are irrelevant. But they do add up to a lot of money, and face time on tv, for some people.
Lots and lots of money.
BTW, where’s that oil money for skeptics? I still ain’t got none!
;^)
lol, I’ll split mine with you!