Jason II -- The Seasonal Signal And The Unprecedented Sea Level Decrease Not Being Reported

 

Jason II’s sea level measurements have been very strange all year.  Well, that’s charitable.  We’ve demonstrated retroactive increase’s in their plotting the sea level. 

But, today, I want to discuss something different.  I don’t know if this is the result of their prior manipulations or if this is something significant which no one is talking about.  But, it is unprecedented!

Please note:  This post is about what is suppose to happen during particular times of the year, cyclic behavior.  When I state “unprecedented” I’m referencing observations in relation to particular times of the year, specifically, what happens around the fall equinox. 

In the past, I’ve been questioned as to why I wouldn’t use the option to remove the seasonal signal from the sea level graphics.  For one, it’s just a matter of practice.  The closer to actual measurements, the better I like the data.  I dislike various assumptions baked into the numbers.  And, for two, I’m not convinced Aviso knows how to properly adjust for the seasonal signal.  Behold, Jason II with the seasonal signal removed.

Look at the dip in sea level near mid 2011.  Look at the peak in 2010 and the minor dip in mid-2010.  Now look at Jason II without removing the seasonal signal. 

I’m going to say they don’t know WTF they’re doing with the seasonal signal.  And this brings me to my main point…… or, rather, an observation.  As you can see, I’ve added a few graphics to the Jason II graph.  The green vertical lines added corresponds to the approximate date of the last measurement for this year.  2012.721485  This is about Sept. 20th.  I just eyeballed the lines so they may be off a fraction of a mm or so.  I also added some arrows for the direction the sea levels always go that time of the year.  Always!  Now, look at the last arrow.  According to Jason II, our sea levels are on the decline still.  Recall, I said “always“.  Not just for Jason II, but for any other satellite that we’ve used.  Here’s Envisat, after they killed it and redrew it’s plots.  I drew some lines to help mark the time of the year we’re referencing. 

Here’s Jason I

Here’s Topex/Poseidon.  I’m tired of drawing lines, you can draw your own lines.   

As near as I can tell, the seasonal increase in sea level has never occurred this late in the year throughout the history of satellite sea level measurements. 

I wish I could say that what we’re witnessing is something significant.  But, I don’t trust the measurements to be true.  Still, I think something never seen before is worth noting.  Yes, it is only a 20 year record (sort of).  I wonder why this hasn’t got any press?    Oh, wait, then they’d have to be reporting an unprecedented decrease in the sea levels.    Mustn’t do that! 

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