It wasn’t but earlier this month that the left had stated that they were salivating at the thought that Romney might pick Ryan for the VP spot. HuffPo linked to the story as well.
Fast-forward to today. Not only did they get their butts kicked at the announcement and the ensuing national discussion, they are now in full spin mode!
WASHINGTON — With the first of the nominating conventions less than a week away, the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll adds more evidence that the choice of Paul Ryan as Mitt Romney’s running mate has not been a “game changer” in the 2012 race for the White House. …
The latest poll of 1000 registered voters nationwide surveyed from Aug. 16 to 20 found President Barack Obama with a narrow four percentage point lead (48 to 44 percent) over presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney.That’s slightly narrower than their last poll in July, which showed Obama leading by six points (49 to 43 percent). Support for each candidate in the newest survey fell within the margin of sampling error.
That new result squares with the HuffPost pollster polling chart, based on all available public polls, which shows no significant change in the Obama-Romney race since the Spring.
Beyond vote preferences, the poll also found that Romney’s selection of Paul Ryan “had less of an impact on voters than previous running mates have had.” Roughly the same number said Ryan’s selection made them more likely to support the Republican ticket (22 percent) than less likely (23 percent), with more than half (54 percent) saying it made no difference. According to NBC, “that margin (-1) is compared with Joe Biden’s in 2008 (+8), Sarah Palin’s in 2008 (+9 percent), John Edwards’ in 2004 (+21), and Joe Lieberman’s in 2000 (+13).”
The poll also asked about the Ryan proposal to “to change how Medicare would work so seniors being enrolled in the program ten years from now would be given a guaranteed payment some call a voucher from the federal government.” After describing the positions of both Romney and Obama, 54 percent said they agreed more with Obama and only 34 percent said they agreed more with Romney.
Now, all of that’s fine and dandy. We’ve discussed polls here several times. In the U.S. there are only a few polls to bother with. IMHO there’s Rasmussen, Pew, and Gallup. Now, when regarding U.S. presidential elections, it isn’t the popular vote in total which counts, it is the votes by state and delegates are awarded by the population of the states. So, we can argue the total numbers, but that isn’t what is really relevant. HuffPo knows this, they keep a laughable mapon their screen.
It’s laughable because they haven’t changed much for months. Here’s a more reasonable one…… (click on the link for an interactive map)
So, why am I bringing this up? Ryan is the VP pick. In spite of what people say, they don’t win or lose the popular vote for the presidential candidate, but they do bring in some regional popularity.
First, the national trackers: Gallup shows Romney leading Obama nationally by two points(with the president’s approval rating underwater at 45/48), and Rasmussen’s latest numbers put Romney up by a single point. Now, the eyebrow-raising swing state stats. Wisconsin:
PPP’s first Wisconsin poll since Mitt Romney announced Paul Ryan as his running mate finds him taking a small lead over Barack Obama in the state, 48-47. That represents a 7 point shift from PPP’s last look at the state in early July, which found Obama ahead 50-44. The biggest change Ryan’s selection seems to have brought about is the unification of the GOP. Romney’s gone from a 78 point lead with Republicans on our last poll (87-9) to now an 88 point lead with them (93-5). There’s also been a tightening with independents. Obama still has a 4 point lead with them at 47-43, but that’s down from a 14 point advantage at 53-39 six weeks ago. Democrats are unchanged from the previous poll.
And then there’s this…..
The same HuffPo pollsters have Obama up by 5 in Virginia, so we can call it a tossup for now. And, that’s all this is…. a question for now. Still, this has to be alarming for the Dems. I had once thought Romney needed both Ohio and Florida to win. It now seems this isn’t the case. Romney now has a chance in so many states, he can win without either Ohio, Florida, or Pennsylvania. Now, that won’t happen, he’ll likely grab at least two of those states (Florida and Ohio), and you can bet on one or the other. This is a huge development. There’s nothing saying these things will remain, but it clearly puts Obama on the ropes.