I get a kick out of all of this. I know some people think this is key to something. I don’t. I think a melted Arctic cap would be good for humanity. I also don’t think it’s going to happen anytime soon.
There’s an interesting article in the Guardian about the ice melting. Well, marginally interesting. It had its share of alarmism, but it was about a study recently done published in the Environmental Research Letters.
In my view, it’s a funny study. The abstract…….
The observed dramatic decrease in September sea ice extent (SIE) has been widely discussed in the scientific literature. Though there is qualitative agreement between observations and ensemble members of the Third Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3), it is concerning that the observed trend (1979–2010) is not captured by any ensemble member. The potential sources of this discrepancy include: observational uncertainty, physical model limitations and vigorous natural climate variability. The latter has received less attention and is difficult to assess using the relatively short observational sea ice records. In this study multi-centennial pre-industrial control simulations with five CMIP3 climate models are used to investigate the role that the Arctic oscillation (AO), the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) play in decadal sea ice variability. Further, we use the models to determine the impact that these sources of variability have had on SIE over both the era of satellite observation (1979–2010) and an extended observational record (1953–2010). There is little evidence of a relationship between the AO and SIE in the models. However, we find that both the AMO and AMOC indices are significantly correlated with SIE in all the models considered. Using sensitivity statistics derived from the models, assuming a linear relationship, we attribute 0.5–3.1%/decade of the 10.1%/decade decline in September SIE (1979–2010) to AMO driven variability.
The Guardian article did the obligatory posting of the arctic ice extent……
Notice how it’s exactly the same as it was 5 years ago. But, before we move on from the study, we should note what’s missing.
The freaking PDO YOU NUMBNUTS!!! Here’s one of their graphs they offered.
The study also states there’s no significant correlation between the AO and the September Ice Extent.
You’ll have to click on the link provided to see table one. Now, I don’t believe for a second anyone really has a handle on ice volume, but it may give us some insights as to the general direction the ice going. Look at the blue in in the graph above and then look at this……
Let’s see, according to the blue line (AO) prior to 1981 we saw it going negative. Looking at the graph directly above we see the ice going negative in that same time period, we see the same thing. From about 1981 to about 1985 or a bit beyond we see an increase…. in both graphs. Then we see a decline. No, there’s no correlation………
Now, correlation doesn’t equal causation, but only suggests a relationship. Given the recent events with the PDO shift and the ice in the Bering Strait, I’m wondering the value of such a paper or new article worrying about a melt?
One day Western Civilization may go back to actual science. But, I think that’s about as likely as journalism being impartial.